Kubera iki kazoza k’isi gashobora kuba kari mu minwe ya Africa?

 Ubwoko bwacu nka kiremwamuntu, Homo sapiens, bwatanguriye muri Afrika haraciye imyaka iharurwa mu bihumbi amajana n’amajana kandi ubu uyu mugabane ushobora kuba ari wo ufise urufunguruzo rwo kubandanya kubaho kwa kiremwamuntu.

Ibi nivyo vyerekanwa n'ivyigwa bitandukanye biraba ingene isi izoba iteye ku bijanye n'abantu mu mpera z'iki kinjana.

Mu kugereranya ingene abantu bazoba bameze mu 2100, abahinga bafatira ku bintu vyinshi, cane cane ku citwa Urugero rw’Irondoka (Taux de fécondité/global fertility rate, TFR), rukaba ari urugero rusangi rw’abana umugore umwe umwe avyara.

Kugira ngo habe irwirirana ry’abantu, canke bagume ku rugero rutagabanuka canke ngo rwongerekane, ni nkenerwa ko haba, n’imiburiburi urugero rw’irondoka rungana na 2,1, ibi bigasigura ko umugore umwe umwe wese muri rusangi avyara abana 2,1.

Ico giharuro kizwi nk''urugrero rwo gusubiriza' kandi ico bisigura kiroroshe: kubera abagore bangana hafi 50% y’abantu bose baba kw’isi, mu gihe umwe umwe wese yovyara abana n’imiburiburi babiri, igitigiri c’abantu nticogabanuka.

Urugero rwo gusubiriza ni abana 2,1 si 2 gusa, kubera bifatwa ko abavutse bose badashika mu bigero kandi bikaba bisa n’uko havuka abahungu benshi gusumba gato abakobwa.

Nk’uko biri mu biharuro biva mu gisata gikurikirana igwirirana ry'abantu mw’ishirahamwe ONU, mu 1950 abagore muri rusangi bavyara abana batanu umwe umwe.

Ibi vyatumye igitigiri c’abantu kw’isi ciyongera incuro zitatu mu kiringo c'imyaka idashika ijana, kandi vuba turagera ku miriyaridi umunani.

Hagati aho, bivuye ku bituma bitandukanye, nk’akarorero, uburyo bwiza bwo gutandukanya imvyaro kandi bugakwiragizwa, hanyuma hakaboneka n’abagore bakora ubuzi mu bihugu vyinshi, ibi hamwe n’ibindi vyatumye urugero rw’irondoka rugabanuka gushika musi y’ica kabiri, gushika aho ubu mu 2022 umugore muri rusangi avyara abana 2,4.

Hariho uturere tutari duke uru rugero ruri no munsi.

 Sabrina Jurán, wo mw’ishami rya ONU rijejwe abantu (UNFPA), yabwiye BBC Mundo ati: “Uno munsi, abarenga inusu y’abantu bose bari kw’isi baba mu bihugu bifise urugero rw’irondoka ryo gusubiriza ruri munsi y’abana 2,1 kuri buri mugore, kandi igice gifadika c'abo bantu baba mu bihugu bfise urugero rwo kurondoka ruri hasi cane kandi baguma bagabanuka”.

 Ibi bituma abahinga babona ko igitigiri c’abantu kw’isi kizoduga cane mu myaka mirongo iri imbere hanyuma gice gitangura gukoroka.

Miriyaridi 10 canke 11

Ibiharuro ngereranyo vy’ingene igitigiri c’abantu kizokwiyongera n’ingene tuzoba tungana bigenda bihindagurika, ariko vyose birerekana ko kizogabanuka mu kinjana kiza.

ONU igereranya ko isi izoba iri hafi y’imiriyaridi 11 z’abantu gushika mu mwaka wa 2100 imbere y’uko iki gitigiri gitangura kumanuka.

Ibindi vyigwa vyakorewe muri Autriche/Austria no muri Reta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika vyerekana ko igabanuka ry’abantu rizotangura imbere y’uwu mwaka, mu myaka 50 gusa, kandi ko igitigiri c’abantu kitazogera ku miriyaridi 10. 

Ibitigiri ngereranyo vya vuba vyakozwe mu 2020 n’ikigo Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations (IHME) cegukira kaminuza ya Washington bikaba vyasohorewe mu kinyamakuru gitanga amakuru y’ubuhinga The Lancet, vyerekana ko imbere y’uko iki kinjana kirangira, ibihugu 183 kuri 195 kw’isi bizoba bifise urugero rw’irondoka ruri munsi y’urukenewe kugira ngo bishobore gusubiriza abantu bavyo. 

Umuntu abirabiye hafi abona ko iri gabanuka ari inkuru nziza, kuko isi idafise abantu b’umurengera bishobora kworoha kuyibako . 

Ariko rero ibi biharuro binyegeje ukuri kudasanzwe: mu gihe hazogenda haba urwaruka ruke abasaza nabo bakiyongera, ibi bihugu bizoshobora gute kubandanya biteza imbere ubutunzi bwavyo? 

Hanyuma kandi no mu gihe kiri imbere: none kiremwa muntu azoshobora kubandanya abaho gute mu gihe abakiri bato bashobora kuvyara bazoguma baba bake uko bukeye uko bwije?

Afrika

Iki nico gituma abenshi bahanga amaso Afrika, umugabane ugizwe n’ibihugu 54, cane cane ibihugu biri munsi y’ubugaragwa bwa Sahara, nk’uko ako kare ko hagati no mu bumanuko bw'uwo mugabane gakunze kwitwa.

Bitandukanye n'ibiba ahandi, muri ako karere gasanzwe kazwi ko ariko kamukamwokiremwa muntu kandi ariko gace k'isi katanguye kubamwo kiremwa muntu, n'ubu niho abantu biyongera ku murindi munini cane.

Ibiharuro ngereranyo vyerekana ko gushika mu 2050 igitigiri c’ababa kuri uyu mugabane kizoba ciyongereye incuro zibiri, kikazoba kigera ku miriyaridi 2,5. 

Ibi bisigura ko mu myaka idashika 30, ica kane c’abantu bose baba kw’isi bazoba bari muri Afrika. 

Irwirirana ry’abantu muri Afrika ryigwiza incuro zibiri gusumba Aziya y’Ubumanuko hamwe n’incuro zitatu gusumba Amerika y’Ubumanuko. 

Ibi biva ku kintu kimwe aka karere kiharije: Mu bihugu hafi vyose vya Afrika, n’imuburiburi 70% y’abanyagihugu bavyo bari musi y’imyaka 30.

 Ibi bitandukanye cane n’ingene ibintu bimeze mu tundi turere tw’isi, aho igitigiri c'abantu bariko barasaza kiri ku muvuduko.

 Hano, Jurán atanga akarorero kuri Amerika y’Ubumanuko no mu mazinga ya Caraibes/ Caribbean, nk’uturere dufise “abantu bariko barasaza bariko baraba benshi ku muvuduko udasanzwe kw’isi”.

 Irwirirana ry’abantu muri Afrika ryatumye ONU ifata ko uyu mugabane “uzogira uruhara wiharije ku kungene igitigiri c'abantu kizoba kingana n'ingene bazoba bakwiragiye kw'isi mu myaka mirongo iri imbere”.

Igihengeri c'abantu mu bice bitandukanye vy'isi

Abahinga bagabisha ko ubu budasa hagati ya Afrika n’iyindi migabane isigaye buzotuma haba impinduka zikomeye kuri ino si tuzi uno musi. 

Mu gitabo aherutse gusohora "8 Billion and Counting: How Sex, Death, and Migration Shape Our World", Jennifer D. Sciubba wo mu kigo Center for Strategic and International Studies i Washington, yerekana ko muri Afrika yo musi y’ubugaragwa bwa Sahara , urugero rw’irondoka ari abana 4.7 kuri buri mugore, incuro hafi zibiri urugero rwo kw’isi. 

Hagati aho, Ubulaya hafi bwose, Aziya yo mu buseruko no mu bumanuko bushira ubuseruko, Oceania, Amerika y’uburaruko hamwe n’ibice vya Amerika y’ubumanuko, urugero rw’irondoka rwaramanutse gushika munsi y’urufatiro rw’abana 2,1. 

Ku bwa Sciubba, ibi biriko bituma haba igihengeri kitari bwigere kibaho kuva isi ibaho ku kungene abantu bakwiragiye uturere dutandukanye tw'isi. 

Ku ruhande rumwe nk’uko abivuga, hariho ibihugu ari vyo vyari vyiganziye isi mu kinjana giheze, ubu bifise abantu bariko barasaza. 

Ku rundi ruhande, hari ibihugu bikenye kandi bidafise inguvu kuri ino si, aho abanyagihugu bavyo hafi bose usanga bakiri bato. 

Uyu mwanditsi avuga ko ubu budasa buzogira uruhara rudasanzwe mu migenderanire ishingiye kuri poritike, ubutunzi n’imibano mu myaka mirongo ibiri iri imbere.

Umwe kuri batatu

Ku ruhande rwiwe, François Soudan, umwanditsi mukuru w’ikinyamakuru Jeune Afrique, aragabisha kuri iki kibazo mu nkuru yiwe yise " The future of humanity will be less white and increasingly African." 

Mu rwandiko yacishije mu kinyamakuru The Africa Report, Soudan avuga ati: “Gushika mu 2100, umuntu umwe kuri batatu kw’isi azoba yavukiye muri Afrika yo musi y’Ubugaragwa bwa Sahara”. 

Asubiramwo ivyanditswe mu kinyamakuru IHME avuga ati: “Nigeria izosumba Ubushinwa ku gitigiri c’abantu, ice iza ubwa kabiri inyuma y’Ubuhindi”.

Ico cigwa cerekana ko mu gihe ibihugu nk’Ubuyapani, Espagne, Ubutaliyano, Portugal, Thailand na Korea y’Epfo abantu bavyo bazoba bagabanutse inusu yose gushika mu mpera y’iki kinjana, muri Afrika yo musi y’ubugaragwa bwa Sahara hoho bazoba biyongereye incuro zitatu”.

Abimukira

Ku bwa Soudan, kubona imyaka y'abantu muri rusangi muri Afrika ari 19 mu gihe ku mugabane wa Buraya ari ari 42”, uko bizogenda kwose bizotuma haba abimukira benshi. 

Avuga ati: “Inzira yonyene iriho ku mugabane wa Bulaya, aho igitigiri c’abakukuruke kizoba gisumba igitigiri c’abagikora incuro zibiri, abapfa nabo bakazoba basumba abavuka, ni uko buzotegerezwa kwikora ku bimukira, aho abenshi mu bazoba binjira bazoba bava ku mugabane umwe rudende uzoba ugizwe ahanini n’urwaruka: Afrika”. 

Nk’uko ibitigiri ngereranyo afatirako bivyerekana, kugira ngo urugero rw’abanyagihugu rugume uko rumeze uno musi, umugabane wa Bulaya ukeneye kwakira “hagati y’imiriyoni zibiri na zitatu z’abimukira” buri mwaka. 

Ibiharuro biherutse gutangazwa n’Inama nkuru ya Bulaya vyerekana ko imiriyoni 1,92 z’abantu zimukiye mu bihugu vyo mu Bumwe bwa Bulaya (UE/EU) mu 2020, ariko abandi bantu 960.000 nabo bava i Bulaya bimukira ahandi, vyumvikana rero ko abiyongeye amaherezo abiyongeye babaye ibihumbi 960.

Urubuga ngurukanabumenyi rw’Ubumwe bwa Bulaya rwandika ruti: “Iyo hataba abimukira, abantu ku mugabane wa Bulaya baba baragabanutse gushika ku nusu y’umuriyoni mu 2019, ufashe ko abana imiriyoni 4.2 ari bo bavutse mu gihe imiriyoni 4.7 z’abantu nabo bapfuye mu bihugu vy’Ubumwe bwa Bulaya”.

Soudan ati: “Ukuri ni uko dufatiye ku ruhande rwa capitalisme, ibihugu vya Bulaya vyategerezwa guhimiriza abimukira, vyanse ko babahendahendesha amafaranga”. Ariko igitangaje nk’uko abivuga, ni uko ahubwo bishiraho “inzitizi indiri n’indiri kugira bazibire abimukira”. 

Nk’uko biri mu gitabo ca Sciubba, hagati ya 2% na 4% bonyene kw’isi yose

nibo baba hanze y’ibihugu vyabo vy’amamuko, ikintu gishobora guhinduka cane muri kazoza. 

“Uko imisi izogenda, niko tuzogenda turonka abanyafrika mu bihugu vyinshi”, nk’uko Christopher Murray, arongoye IHME nawe nyene yafashije kwandika iki cigwa muri The Lancet, abibona.

Amahirwe canke umuvumo?

None bizogira ingaruka nyabaki kuri Afrika mu gihe izoba ari yo soko ry’urwaruka mw’isi izoba igizwe n’abasaza? 

Abahinga ntibabibona kumwe. Mu gihe vyokorwa neza, bamwe bemeza ko iki gice c’isi cibagiwe gusumba ibindi vyose gishobora kwungukira kuri ibi bihugu bifise abantu bariko baragabanuka kigatsimbataza ubutunzi bwaco kikagira n’ikibanza kw’isi. 

Hano bafatira ku kungene Ubushinwa bwongereje imitahe yabwo muri Afrika, mu kwubaka ibivuko, ibibuga vy’indege, amabarabara n’amashure nka bimwe mu vyo bwakoze. 

“Ni ngombwa ko ibihugu vya Afrika n’abantu bayo bafatwa ukundi”, nk’uko bivugwa n’umuyobozi w'ikigo c’ubushakashatsi muri Afrika (Africa Research Institute), Edward Paice, akaba n'umwanditsi w'igitabo "Earthquake of Youth: Why African Demography Should Matter for the World" (Ni ukuvuga Nyamugigima y'urwaruka: igituma irwirirana ry’abantu muri Afrika ari ngirakamaro kw’isi). 

Mu ciyumviro ciwe yacishije mu kinyamakuru co mu Bwongereza The Guardian, Paice yasavye amakungu gushira ku ruhande “ugufata Afrika ukutariko" be “n’ikumirwa” ry'uwo mugabane. 

Uyu muhinga abona ko igitigiri kinini c’abantu uyu mugabane ufise “kizogira ingaruka kuri poritike n’ubucuruzi ku rwego mpuzamakungu, ku buhinga no kuri kazoza k’amadini azoba yiganje kw’isi, be no mu bijanye n’abimukira...hafi mu bista vyose vy’ubuzima”. 

Ku ruhande rumwe, abatemera canke ko bizogenda uko, bagabisha ko, hatabaye ukwiga amashure, iterambere, ariko hejuru ya vyose ngo habe ubuzi, iri rwirirana ry’abantu muri Afrika rishobora gutuma haba ubushomeri, ubukene, indyane n’intagondwa zitwaza amadini birenze urugero. 

Kimwe mu vyiyumviro biteye ubwoba cane ni icatanzwe na Malcolm Potts, umwigisha wa kaminuza California School of Public Health aho mu 2013 yagabishije ko akarere kazwi nka Sahel mu buraruko bw’igice c’Ubugaragwa bwa Sahara “gashobora kuba aka mbere kw’isi gahura n’ikigoyi kitari bwigere kibaho, n’indyane nazo zikiyongera kubera igitigiri c’abantu gisumba ubutunzi kama”.

Kuri Soudan, impera n’imperuka uzosanga Afrika izokwama ihanze amaso ivyo abategetsi bo kuri uyo mugabane bakora uno musi. 

Arangiza avuga ati: "Niba koko Afrika ishaka kugumana abanyagihugu bayo b’inkerebutsi, bakomeye kandi b’abahinga - ni ukuvuga ba bantu bashira ubwoba bakemera kuja kuronderera ubuzima hanze - kandi ikungukira ku bwinshi bw’abantu bayo hakugendera ku majambo ya poritike gusa, ni ngombwa ko uyu mugabane ushira inguvu mu burezi, mu kwigisha imyuga, mu gutegura imigambi yo kugwiza ubuzi, hamwe rero no mu mugambi wo kuvyara ku rugero”.