'Kabila i Goma': Ikimenyetso cy'intambara ndende cyangwa kubara nabi muri politike?

Umusesenguzi kuri politike ya Repubulika ya Demokarasi ya Congo avuga ko gusubira muri icyo gihugu kwa Joseph Kabila wahoze ari Perezida, akajya mu gice kigenzurwa n'inyeshyamba za M23 zirwanya ubutegetsi, ari intambwe ikomeye ica amarenga y'intambara ishobora kumara igihe kirekire cyangwa bikaba ari ikosa Kabila yakoze.

Profeseri Jason Stearns, Umunyamerika wigisha siyansi ya politike kuri Kaminuza ya 'Simon Fraser University' muri Canada, yabwiye BBC Gahuzamiryango ko ejo hazaza h'iyi ntambara yo mu burasirazuba bwa DRC hazagenwa n'ibizava mu biganiro hagati y'u Rwanda na DRC kuri ubu biyobowe n'Amerika.

Biteganyijwe ko mu kwezi gutaha impande zombi zihurira i Washington zigashyira umukono ku masezerano y'amahoro yo kurangiza intambara.

Ku wa mbere, umutwe wa M23 watangaje ko wishimiye ko Kabila, w'imyaka 53, yageze i Goma mu murwa mukuru w'intara ya Kivu ya Ruguru. Nta gihamya yari yatangazwa kugeza ubu igaragaza kuhagera kwe.

Profeseri Stearns agira ati: "Niba ibyo biganiro binaniranye, amasezerano ntagerweho, ntekereza ko kuhagera kwa Kabila kwaba ingenzi ndetse kwaba mu bigize amakuba y'igihe kirekire."

Umutwe wa M23, uyobowe ahanini n'Abatutsi b'Abanye-Congo, uvuga ko wafashe intwaro kugira ngo urinde uburenganzira bw'abo muri ubwo bwoko bwa ba nyamucye no kubera ko abategetsi ba DRC bisubiyeho ku byo bari bariyemeje mu masezerano y'amahoro yabayeho mbere.

Leta ya DRC yamaganye icyo cyemezo cya Kabila cyo kujya i Goma, nyuma yuko sena y'icyo gihugu imwambuye ubudahangarwa kugira ngo akurikiranwe ku byaha birimo n'ubugambanyi, bijyanye n'ibyo ashinjwa byo gukorana na M23.

Mu ijambo yavuze kuri YouTube ku wa gatanu, Kabila yanenze bikomeye ubutegetsi bw'uwamusimbuye Félix Tshisekedi avuga ko ari ubw'"igitugu bugomba kurangira" hakajyaho ubwa "demokarasi".

Yananenze ubucamanza bwa DRC avuga ko bwemeye "gukoreshwa ku mugaragaro ku mpamvu za politike".

Kabila, wategetse iki gihugu imyaka 18 guhera mu 2001, yagize ati: "Nk'umusirikare, narahiriye kurinda igihugu kugeza ku gitambo kiruta ibindi byose [urupfu]. Ejo nari ku butegetsi, uyu munsi sindi ku butegetsi, [ariko] nkomeje kuba indahemuka kuri iyo ndahiro kurusha mbere hose."

Profeseri Stearns avuga ko mu gihe ibiganiro hagati y'u Rwanda na DRC byagera ku masezerano y'amahoro, Kabila ashobora gusanga yarakoze ikosa.

Stearns ati: "Ariko niba Amerika igeze kuri gahunda yayo yo gutuma urebye igisirikare cy'u Rwanda na M23 basubira inyuma, icyemezo cye gishobora kubonwa nk'ikosa kuko ahageze mu gihe leta y'Amerika irimo kugerageza gushaka umuti urambye w'aya makuba ndetse niba RDF [ingabo z'u Rwanda] ivuyeyo, ubwo Kabila azatakaza imbaraga nyinshi."

Kinshasa, ONU n'ibihugu byinshi byo mu burengerazuba bw'isi bashinja u Rwanda gufasha M23 muri iyi ntambara yo mu burasirazuba bwa DRC, bukungahaye ku mabuye y'agaciro. U Rwanda rurabihakana.

Stearns avuga ko nubwo Kabila ataratangaza ku mugaragaro ko yinjiye muri M23, mu kujya mu gice igenzura "yagaragaje neza cyane ko arimo kwihuza n'uyu mutwe ndetse hari amasoko [y'inkuru] menshi yumvikanisha ko afasha uyu mutwe".

Uyu mwarimu wa Kaminuza yongeraho ko kujya i Goma kwe "byemeje amakuru twari tumaze amezi twumva yuko hari ubufatanye runaka hagati ya Kabila n'umutwe wa M23".

Stearns avuga ko uku kuza kwa Kabila ari "ingenzi" kuko M23 ubwayo "ni umutwe w'intege nkeya mu buryo bwuko ufite abawushyigikiye bacye cyane hanze y'abantu bacye cyane [bashyigikiye M23] bo mu burasirazuba bwa DRC".

Avuga ko nubwo M23 ifite ishami rya politike rizwi nka AFC (Alliance Fleuve Congo), nta kintu kinini byayifashije mu kugira umubare munini w'abayishyigikiye kuko AFC "na yo ni ishami rya politike ry'intege nkeya".

Stearns agira ati: "Biragoye kuvuga ko bafite ababashyigikiye benshi mu muryango mugari w'Abanye-Congo."

Ariko avuga ko kuza kwa Kabila muri uyu mutwe, wafashe imijyi myinshi yo mu burasirazuba n'umurwa mukuru Bukavu w'intara ya Kivu y'Epfo, bishobora kubihindura kuko "Joseph Kabila ni umuntu ukomeye cyane muri politike muri DRC".

"Sintekereza ko umuntu yavuga ko akunzwe cyane...gukundwa kwe kwari gusanzwe kuri muri za 20 ku ijana kugeza ubwo yavaga ku butegetsi ariko ni umuntu ukomeye muri politike – 20 ku ijana iyo ari yo yose [mu kintu icyo ari cyo cyose] si ubusa.

"Rero ntekereza ko mu kwinjira muri uyu mutwe biwongerera kwizerwa."

Stearns yongeraho ko Kabila ashobora no gutera inkunga umutwe wa M23 no gutuma "ubonwa nk'ikintu kitari gusa igikoresho cy'u Rwanda – [ukagira] ubwigenge bwinshi".

Kabila n'u Rwanda bafitanye "umubano waranzwemo ibibazo" umaze imyaka irenga 20, uhereye igihe se, Laurent-Désiré Kabila, yafataga ubutegetsi mu 1997 ayoboye umutwe w'inyeshyamba wa AFDL (Alliance des Forces Démocratiques pour la Libération du Congo-Zaïre), wafashwaga n'u Rwanda, Uganda n'u Burundi, agahirika uwari Perezida wa Zaïre y'icyo gihe, Mobutu Sese Seko.

Mu 1997, Joseph Kabila, wari ufite imyaka 26, "yari umuntu wa hafi cyane ya [Jenerali uri mu kiruhuko cy'izabukuru ubu] James Kabarebe muri icyo gihe ariko we na se birumvikana ko baje gushwana" na Kabarebe, nkuko Stearns abivuga, nuko "barwana n'u Rwanda intambara yamaze imyaka itanu".

Na nyuma yuko hagiyeho leta y'ubumwe muri DRC mu 2003, Joseph Kabila wari wasimbuye se wishwe mu 2001, ubutegetsi bwe "inshuro nyinshi bwarwanye intambara n'imitwe ishyigikiwe n'u Rwanda" – CNDP (Congrès National pour la Défense du Peuple) wa Laurent Nkunda (2006 - 2009) na M23 ya mbere (2012 - 2013).

Stearns ati: "Rero amaze imyaka avugana n'Abanyarwanda ariko umubano we na bo wagiye uhinduka [uva] hagati y'ubushyamirane bweruye n'ubufatanye. Rero ntekereza ko kuba izina rye arimo kuryegeka kuri M23 bikwiye kubonwa muri urwo rwego.

"Ntibikwiye kubonwa nk'umubano umaze imyaka n'imyaka hagati ye n'u Rwanda ahubwo ni umubano wo gucyenerana by'igihe gito. Kuri ubu inyungu zabo zirahura. Ariko birashoboka ko ibyo bitazahoraho iteka."

Nta cyo leta y'u Rwanda yigeze itangaza ku mugaragaro ku gusubira muri DRC kwa Kabila cyangwa ngo ivuge ko hari imikoranire iyo ari yo yose ifitanye na we. Leta y'u Rwanda ishimangira ko ikibazo cyo muri DRC ari ikibazo cy'Abanye-Congo ubwabo.

Stearns avuga ko bigoye kumenya neza impamvu iki gihe ari cyo Kabila yahisemo cyo gusubira muri DRC, igihugu yari yavuyemo mu buryo buzwi mu Kuboza (12) mu 2023 avuga ko agiye kwiga muri Afurika y'Epfo.

Uyu mushakashatsi avuga ko Kabila afite imitungo myinshi – ahanini itimukanwa – muri DRC, irimo nk'inzuri nini, inyubako i Kinshasa n'i Lubumbashi n'ahandi mu gihugu.

Gufata icyo cyemezo rero byatumye leta ya DRC ishaka gufatira iyo mitungo ye.

Stearns ati: "Yafashe icyemezo kirimo ibyago", gishobora kuba cyaratewe no kuba yarabonaga ko we cyangwa abo mu ishyaka rye barimo kurushaho kwibasirwa n'ubutegetsi bwa Tshisekedi, no kuba "byaragendaga birushaho kugorana ko yakongera gutorwa".