Menya ico intsinzi ya Trump ishobora gusigura kw'isi

Ibiharuro ngereranyo vyerekana ko Donald Trump yahoze ari umukuru w'igihugu wa Reta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika ashobora gutsindira ikiringo kigira kabiri mu matora y'umukuru w'igihugu ategekanijwe muri Munyonyo (11), ariko biregeranye cane ku buryo ata womenya ingene bizogenda.

Uwo ari we wese azotsinda, ibizova mu matora bizogira ingaruka kw'isi yose - ingaruka ku buzima bw'amamiriyoni y'abantu hanze y'imbibe za Amerika.

Mu gihe vyitezwe ko yemezwa n'ikoraniro kaminuza ry'umugambwe w'Abarepubulika mu kw'indwi kuza, Trump ntakunze gutanga insiguro ku migambi yiwe.

Ariko biragaragara ko poritike yiwe ishobora gutandukana n'iya Perezida Joe Biden mu bisata bitari bike. Bimwe bimwe muri vyo ni ibi.

Ubwo Trump azobandanya gushigikira Ukraine?

Kuva kera, Donald Trump yamye ataraba ryiza amamiriyaridi n'amamiriyaridi y'amadorali y'imfashanyo ya gisirikare arungikirwa Ukraine kuva Uburusiya butanguje intambara ku gihugu cose mu 2022.

Mu gihe atahengeshanya gushimagiza yeruye Perezida Vladimir Putin igihe yari akiri umukuru w'igihugu, Trump yiyemeje guhagarika intambara "mu masaha 24" aramutse atowe. Ntiyavuze ingene yobikora, ariko ano majambo yateje impungenge ko ashobora gutera igitsure Ukraine kugira ngo ihebere ubutaka bwayo Uburusiya.

Integuro yarimwo imfashanyo ya gisirikare y'imiriyaridi 60 z'amadorari y'Abanyamerika igenewe Ukraine yaramaze amezi atari make yazibiwe n'abanywanyi biwe b'Abarepubulika mu nama nshingamateka na nkenguzamateka za Amerika, nubwo ata vyinshi yavuze imaze kwemezwa muri Ndamukiza (4).

Hagati aho, umwe mu ncuti ziwe, umushikiranganji wa mbere wa Hongrie/Hungary, Viktor Orban, avuga ko Trump ata “n'ikuta na rimwe azoha” Ukraine aramutse atowe, ni inyuma y'aho abonaniye n'uno yahoze arongoye Amerika i Florida muri Ntwarante (3) uno mwaka.

Abajijwe ku majambo yavuzwe na Orban, Trump yabwiye ikinyamakuru Time Magazine ati: “Nta kintu nzotanga kiretse Ubulaya butanguye gutanga imfashanyo ingana n'iyo dutanga”.

Yavuze ko yari agiye “kugerageza be no gufasha Ukraine” ariko ko Uburayi butatanze igice cabwo "uko bwategerezwa".

Abarepubulika basanzwe batora barumva cane ivyo kugabanya imfashanyo ya gisirikare. Mu biharuro ngereranyo vyasohowe ku wa 8 Rusama (5) n'ikigo Pew Research Center, 49% vy'Abarepubulika babajijwe bavuze ko Amerika yakoresha amafaranga menshi kuri Ukraine, ugereranije na 17% vy'aba-Democrats.

Michelle Bentley, umuhinga mu migenderanire mpuzamakungu kw'ishure kaminuza Royal Holloway University y'i Londres mu Bwongereza, avuga ko ubutumwa bwa Trump bushobora kuba bwamaze kugira ingaruka kuko Putin "ubu ashobora guterwa intege" no kwumva ko Trump ashobora gutsinda amatora.

Ubwo Trump ashobora kuvana Amerika muri OTAN/NATO?

Ishirahamwe ryo kwivunira umwansi hamwe, Organisation du Traité de l’Atlantique Nord/North Atlantic Treaty Organization (OTAN/NATO), ihuriro rya gisirikare rihurikiyemwo ibihugu 32, harimwo Amerika, Ubwongereza, Ubudagi n'Ubufaransa, ni kimwe mu bintu bitabonwa ryiza na Trump.

Igihe yari umukuru w'igihugu, ntiyahengeshanya kugabisha ko yashobora kuvana Amerika muri iri huriro ari nka hamwe ibindi bihugu bihurikiye muri ryo vyonanirwa no gushika ku ntego vyumvikanye yo gukoresha 2% vy'umwimbu rusangi w'igihugu (PIB/GDP) mu bijanye no kwivuna abansi.

Mu mabwirizwa agenga OTAN, igitero ico ari co cose ku gihugu kiri muri iri huriro gifatwa ko ari igitero ku bihugu vyose bihurikiye muri uno muryango.

Ariko muri Ruhuhuma (2) uno mwaka Trump yavuze ko atotabara igihugu "kitarishe" kandi ko yotera intege Uburusiya kugikorera "ico ari co cose bwoshaka".

Urubuga ngurukanabumenyi rujanye n'imyiyamamazo yiwe ruvuga ko intego yiwe ari “ugusubira gusuzuma" imigambi n'intego vya OTAN.

Hari ivyiyumviro bitandukanye ku kibazo co kumenya nimba vyoshika agakura Amerika muri iri huriro.

Ariko Ed Arnold wo ku kigo c'abahinga mu vyo kwivuna abansi, Royal United Services Institute, gifise icicaro i Londres mu Bwongereza avuga ko ashobora "kurinaniza" ataryiyonkoyeko - mu kugabanya igitigiri c'ingabo za Amerika i Bulaya canke mu gushiraho ibisabwa kugira ngo Amerika ishobore gutabara mu gihe Uburusiya bworamuka buteye igihugu ca OTAN.

Trump ariyemeza kwirukana mu kivunga abimukira

Intwaro ya Trump yaranzwe na poritike yo kutihanganira abimukira, kandi ariyemeza ko azorushirizaho ari nka hamwe yosubira ku butegetsi.

Avuga ko kuva ku musi wa mbere yoca atangura “igikorwa ca mbere kinini muri kahise ka Amerika co kwirukana abantu”.

Uno Murepubulika yariyemeje guhagarika uburenganzira bwo guhabwa ubwenegihugu ku bana bavuka ku bimukira badafise ivya ngombwa no gutanguza urugamba rwo kurwanya abanya-Mexique badandaza ibiyayuramutwe.

Mu mwaka uheze naho yavuze ko yokwagura amategeko yigeze gufata, yo kubuza abimukira bava mu bihugu bitari bike ahanini vy'abasilamu, amategeko yateje impari nyinshi .

“Hejuru yo kwirukana amamiriyoni y'abimukira batemewe, abenshi muri bo bamaze imyaka mirongo baba muri Amerika, Trump arondera kugabanya abinjira n'abasohoka mu buryo bwemewe n'amategeko", nk'uko bivugwa na Doris Meissner yahoze ari komiseri w'icahoze ari Igisata ca Amerika kijejwe Abimukira n'Ubwenegihugu (US Immigration and Naturalization Service), ubu akaba ari umuhinga ku kigo Migration Policy Institute gifise icicaro i Washington DC.

Urubuga ngurukanabumenyi rwa Trump rwerekana ko igihe yari umukuru w'igihugu yahagaritse umugambi wo kwakira impunzi, uno mupfasoni akavuga ko ashobora gusubira kubigerageza.

Umupfasoni Meissner abona ko imigambi y'uno yahoze ari umukuru w'igihugu ishobora guhura n'inzitizi zishingiye ku mategeko nk'uko vyagenze mu kiringo ciwe ca mbere, aho vyabaye ngombwa ko ubutungane bwivanga mu ngingo zimwe zimwe nk'izijanye n'abinjira n'abasohoka.

Hanyuma kandi, umugambi wiwe wo kwirukana abimukira “uzohangana n'ikibazo c'uko reta y'igihugu idafise uburyo busabwa bwo guhagarika no kwirukana abantu ku rugero rungana n'ibitigiri Trump yiyemeza", nk'uko uno mupfasoni Meissner abivuga.

Perezida Biden yiyemeje gushiraho poritike "y'ubuntu" ku bijanye n'abimukira akaba yarahagaritse vy'agateganyo canke arafuta amategeko atari make yo ku ntwaro ya Trump yari ajanye no gucungera imbibe z'igihugu. Ariko, ibiharuro ngereranyo vyerekana ko abatora bafise impungenge ku rugero rw'abimukira.

Muri uku kwa gatandatu, yasohoye itegeko rikomeye ryemerera abategetsi kwirukana badatevye abimukira binjira muri Amerika bidaciye mu mategeko, batarinze kwihweza ibisabo vyabo vy'ubuhungiro. Haciye indwi zibiri, yashize ahabona poritike ikingira ibihumbi amajana y'abadafise ivya ngombwa bubakanye n'Abanyamerika kugira ngo ntibirukanwe.

Ubwo Trump azobandanya gushigikira Israel?

Ku ntwaro yiwe, Trump yari ashigikiye cane Israel na reta yayo.

Yatangaje ko Amerika yemeza ko Yeruzalemu/Jerusalem ari umugwa mukuru wa Israel, maze ahindura poritike ya Amerika yari imaze imyaka mirongo, aca yimurira ibiro vy'ubuserukizi bwa Amerika i Yeruzalemu vyari bisanzwe biri i Tel Aviv.

Izi ngingo zompi Biden atashoboye gufuta zafashwe n'Abanyapalestina ko ari uguhengamira ku ruhande rumwe ku kibazo ca Yeruzalemu giteje impari nyinshi.

Reta ya Trump yari ishigikiye igikorwa c'Abayahudi co kwihagira ubutaka mu karere ka Cisjordanie/West Bank kigaruriwe n'Abayahudi - ingendo ibihugu vyinshi kw'isi bifata ko iteye kubiri n'amategeko mpuzamakungu, nubwo Israel itavyemera.

Intwaro yiwe kandi yarahagarariye amasezerano yo kugarukana umubano hagati ya Israel n'ibindi bihugu bine vyo mu muryango w'Abarabu (Arab League) - Bahrein, Emira Zunze Ubumwe z'Abarabu, Sudani hamwe na Maroc.

Hagati aho, hari bamwe babona ko yagumanye akazikira kuri Benjamin Netanyahu kuva mu matora ya 2020 muri Amerika igihe uno mushikiranganji wa mbere wa Israel ahamagariye Biden kuri terefone amukeza mu gihe Trump wewe yari aciyamiriza ivyayavuyemwo.

Inyuma y'ibitero vyo ku wa 7 Gitugutu umwaka uheze, Trump yavuze ko Netanyahu atari “yiteguriye” igitero ca Hamas, yongera avuga ko Hezbollah, umuhari w'abarwanyi b'Abasilamu ufise icicaro muri Libani ari "intugane", ivyateje uburakari mu Barepubulika bashigikiye Israel.

Abandanya ashimangira ko ashigikiye Israel ku rugero rutari bwigere rubaho, ariko ubu avuga ko iki gihugu gitegerezwa "kurangiza ivyo catanguye" ku barwanyi ba Hamas muri Gaza, kandi bigahera vuba kuko kiriko kiratakaza intambara mu bijanye n'imigenderanire.

Yabwiye ikinyamakuru Time Magazine ko mu gihe hokwaduka intambara hagati ya Irani na Israel, yokingira Israel, ariko akaba ata nsiguro nyinshi atanga ku migambi yo guhangana na Iran. Igihe yari umukuru w'igihugu, yarakuye Amerika mu masezerano yerekeye umugambi wa Nikleyeri wa Iran, yongereza ibihano aca atanga uburenganzira bwo gukora igitero cahitanye umutegetsi wa gisirikare wa mbere wa Irani yari akomeye, Qasem Soleimani.

Trump azokwongereza igitsure ku Bushinwa?

Igihe yari ku butegetsi, Trump yatanguje intambara ikomeye y'ubudandaji ku Bushinwa. Aramutse asubiye gutorwa, avuga ko azotoza amakori arenga 60% ku bidandazwa vyinjira bivuye muri iki gihugu.

Mu mwaka uheze, yavuze kandi ibijanye n'“ingingo nshasha ruhasha” mu ntumbero yo “guhagarika ukugurira mu Bushinwa” ibikoresho vyo mu bisata nyamukuru vya Amerika nk'umuyagankuba n'uguhanahana amakuru.

Mu gihe icuka kibi kigenda ciyongera mw'ibahari South China Sea no ku kibazo ca Taiwan, bamwe mu bamwegereye bipfuza kubona poritike ya Amerika mu vyo umutekano yibanze ahanini ku bushinwa.

Elbridge Colby yari umuhanuzi mu bushikiranganji bwo kwivuna abansi ku ntwaro ya Trump, yagize ikibanza gikomeye mu bijanye n'umutekano mu bategetsi b'Abarepubulika kandi aboneka ko ashobora kuronka ikibanza mu butegetsi bwa Turmp.

Ino ncabwenge igendera ku muco wa kera ni umwe mu bagize umurwi w'Abarepubulika bashaka ko Amerika yibanda cane ku Bushinwa muri poritike yo hanze.

Colby ati: “Si ukuvuga gusa ko dushaka guha umugongo Ukraine, ariko kuyishigikira si co gikwiye gushirwa imbere mu gihe Ubushinwa bubangamiye cane inyungu za Amerika kurusha Uburusiya".

Yongerako y'uko Trump “azi neza iki kintu”.

Taiwan ifise reta yigenga kandi yifata ko ari igihugu cigenga ataho gihuriye n'Ubushinwa, mu gihe ifise ibwirizwashingiro ryayo n'abategetsi bayo batorwa biciye mu nzira ya demokarasi. Ariko Ubushinwa buyifata nk'intara yiyonkoye kandi ko impera n'imperuka izosubizwa mu ruhongore - mbere bukaba budashira ku ruhande ikoreshwa ry'inguvu mu gufata iri zinga.

Kuva kera, Amerika ntiyigera itomora ingene yokwifata mu gihe Ubushinwa bworamuka buteye Taiwan, nubwo Biden ari we wa mbere yagaragaye cane mu bategetsi bose ba Amerika mu kuvuga ko Amerika izoyitabara.

Trump ntashaka kuvuga ico yokora. Hagati aho, yarateje uburakari Ubushinwa igihe atsinda amatora yo mu 2016, mu kwemera terefone y'umukuru w'igihugu wa Taiwan yo kumukeza, maze atandukana na poritike yo kuva kera ya Amerika yo kutagira imigenderanire na Taiwan.

Ku bidukikije hoho ni gute?

Igihe yari umukuru w'igihugu, Trump yavanye Amerika mu masezerano ya Paris yo mu 2025 kw'ihindagurika ry'ikirere. Biden yahinduye iyi ngingo - ariko urubuga ngurukanabumenyi rw'imyiyamamazo ya Trump ruvuga ko yoca asubira kwivumbura.

Urubuga ngurukanabumenyi rwiwe ruvuga kandi ko azohagarika "imanza ataco zimaze" z'abajejwe ibidukikije, azohagarika intererano ya reta ku muyagankuba uva ku muyaga, azogabanya amakori ku bimbura igitoro n'ibizuku, kandi ko azofuta amabwirizwa yashizweho na Biden mu kugenzura ivyuka birekurwa n'imiduga.

Umwigisha wa kaminuza David G Victor, umuhinga mu bijanye n’ihindagurika ry'ikirere kuri kaminuza ya California i San Diego, avuga ko ata banyaporitike babiri biyamamariza ikibanza c'umukuru w'igihugu bari bwigere batandukana ku bijanye n'ibidukikije mu myaka 30 iheze.

Victor avuga ko intsinzi ya Trump yoba “akaga” ku ntego za reta ya Amerika mu bijanye n'ibidukikije.

Ati: “Yokumira incuti zacu...rero hari ubwoba bwinshi".

Dr Simon Evans, icegera c’umwanditsi mukuru w'urubuga ngurukanabumenyi rukomeye ku bijanye n’ihindagurika ry’ikirere Carbon Brief, avuga ko bishoboka cane ko Amerika inanirwa no gushika ku vyo yiyemeje ku rwego mpuzamakungu mu bijanye n’ikirere Trump aramutse asubiye ku butegetsi.

Dr Evans ni umwe mu bakoze ubushakashatsi bwabonye ko Amerika ishobora kandi no kudashika ku ntego zayo ku butegetsi bwa Perezida Biden, ariko ku rugero ruto.

Biden yarashize umutahe w’imiriyoni 300 z’amadorari y’Abanyamerika mu twigoro tujanye n’umuyagankuba udahumanya ikirere hamwe n’ihindagurika ry’ikirere. Ariko bamwe mu baharanira ibungabungwa ry’ikirere bararwanya ingingo yafashe zo kwongereza umwimbu w’igitoro na gaze, harimwo n’umugambi Willow muri Alaska wo kwimbura igitoro.

Prof Victor agira ati: "Nibaza ko Biden ariko arakora cane uko ashoboye".

Ati: “Nta nkeka ko yafashe ivyemezo bikomeye tutari gushikako vyo kugabanya ivyuka bihumanya ikirere. Ariko nta nkeka ko ubutegetsi bwiwe bwakoze vyinshi kuri poritike ijanye n’ikirere gusumba intwaro iyo ari yo yose kuva muri kahise”.