Umwihwezo ku matora ya Amerika yimirije: Ni nde ari imbere - Harris canke Trump?

Bitegekanijwe ko ku wa 05 Munyonyo (11) Abanyamerika bitabira amatora kugira ngo batore umukuru w'igihugu cabo.

Mu ntango, vyaboneka ko ano matora yari kuba nk'ayaheruka mu 2020 ariko ibintu bikaba vyagiye guhinduka muri Mukakaro (7) igihe Perezida Joe Biden akura akarenge mu myiyamamazo yiwe agashigikira icegera ciwe, Kamala Harris.

Ubu ikibazo nyamukuru kihari ni iki: Ubwo Amerika irashobora kuronka umukuru w'igihugu wa mbere w'umukenyezi canke izoha Donald Trump ikiringo ca kabiri?

Mu gihe umusi w'amatora utera wegereza, turihweza ingene ibintu bimeze mu majwi ngereranyo hamwe n'ingaruka imyiyamamazo imaze kugira muri iri higanwa ryo gushika muri Maison Blanche/White House.

Ni nde ari imbere mu biharuro ngereranyo mu gihugu?

Kuva yinjiye mw'ihiganwa mu mpera za Mukakaro, Harris ari imbere ya Trump ku rwego rw'igihugu, nk'uko vyerekanwa muri iki gicapo cerekana ibiharuro biherutse kwegeranywa.

Aba bakandida babiri barahanganye mu kiyago mpari cacishijwe ku mboneshakure i Pennsylvania ku wa 10 Nyakanga (10), aho bakurikiranywe n'abantu barenga imiriyoni 67.

Vyinshi mu biharuro ngereranyo vyegeranijwe mu ndwi yakurikiye vyerekana ko ingene Harris yavyifashemwo vyatumye atera intambwe ntoya, aho amajwi yasumvya mukeba wiwe yaduze akava kuri 2.5% ku musi w'ikiyago agashika kuri 3.3% haciye indwi.

Iyi ntambwe ntoya yavuye ahanini kw'ikoroka ry'ibiharuro vya Trump. Imbere y'iki kiyago, amajwi yaraduga, ariko yarakorotse gushika ku nusu y'inota mu ndwi yakurikiye.

Urashobora kubona izi mpinduka ntoya muri iki gicapo cerekana amajwi ngereranyo aho musi, aho imirongo y'ukungene ibintu bimeze yerekana ukungene aya majwi yagiye arahinduka, utudomo natwo tukerekana ivyavuye mu bushakashatsi ku majwi ya buri mukandida.

Nubwo ibi biharuro ngereranyo ari ngirakamaro mu kwerekana ingene umukandida ahagaze mu gihugu muri rusangi, si ukuvuga ko ari vyo vyofatirwako mu kwerekana ibishobora kuva mu matora.

Ibi biterwa n'uko amatora ya Amerika ashingiye ku ntumwa zitora (collège électoral/electoral college) , aho buri ntara ihabwa igitigiri kanaka c'amajwi gishingiye ku gitigiri c'abanyagihugu bayo.

Abahiganwa barwanira amajwi 538 y'intumwa zitora, ibi bigasigura ko umukandida akenera gushikana 270 kugira ngo atsinde.

Hari intara 50 zigize Reta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, ariko kubera hafi zose usanga zifise umugambwe kanaka zama zitora, mu bisanzwe hari nke cane aho abakandida usanga bafisemwo amahirwe yo gutsinda. Aha ni mu ntara usanga ubu umugambwe kanaka utsinzwe, ikindi gihe naho ugatsinda, zikaba zizwi nk'intara kigwanirwa canke intara mahindagu.

Ni nde ari imbere mu biharuro ngereranyo mu ntara mahindagu?

Muri iki gihe, ibiharuro biregeranye cane mu ntara indwi zifatwa ko ari kigwanirwa muri ano matora, aho usanga basumbanya rimwe canke abiri kw'ijana.

Muri izi harimwo Pennsylvania, intara ifise ikibanza kidasanzwe kubera ifise igitigiri kinini n'intumwa zitora muri izi indwi mahindagu, rero uwuyitsindiye biramworohera cane gushikana amajwi 270 aba akeneye.

Mu kimenyetso cerekana ingene iri higanwa ryahindutse kuva Harris agenywe kwitoza kw'izina ry'aba-Democrats, ku musi Biden yava mw'ihiganwa yari inyuma ya Trump ku majwi hafi atanu kw'ijana muri izi ntara indwi.

Ikintu kimwe co kuvuga ni uko ubu hari ibiharuro ngereranyo bike biriko biregeranywa ku rwego rw'intara gusumba ibiriko biregeranywa ku rwego rw'igihugu, rero nta biharuro nyavyo twofatirako, kandi buri biharuro vyama birimwo urugero kanaka rwo kwihenda, ibi bigasigura ko bishobora kuba hasi canke hejuru.

Ariko umuntu aravye ingene ibintu bimeze kuva Harris yinjiye mw'ihiganwa, birafasha mu kwerekana intara ahagazemwo neza, nk'uko ibiharuro ngereranyo bivyerekana.

Mu gicapo gikurikira urashobora kubona ko Harris ari imbere muri Michigan, Pennsylvania na Wisconsin kuva mu ntango za Myandagaro (8).

Izi ntara zose zamye ari ibirindiro vy'umugambwe w'aba-Democrats imbere y'uko Trump azihindura zigacika iz'Abarepubulika mu myiyamamazo yo mu matora ya 2016 yatsinze. Biden yarazigarukanye mu 2020, rero mu gihe Harris yoshobora gukora nk'uko muri uno mwaka, yoba ari mu nzira yo gutsinda ano matora.

Ibi biharuro vyegeranywa gute?

Ibiharuro twakoresheje muri ibi bicapo ni ibiharuro vyakozwe n'urubuga ngurukanabumenyi 538, uru narwo rukaba rwegukira ikimenyeshamakuru co muri Amerika ABC News.

Mu kubishikako, urubuga 538 rwegeranya ibiharuro ku bantu bagiye babazwa ku rwego rw'igihugu no ku rwego rw'intara mahindagu, ibi bigakorwa n'amakompanyi menshi yegeranya ibiharuro ngereranyo mu matora.

Mu rwego rwo gukomeza ubuziranenge, 538 yegeranya gusa ibiharuro bivuye mu makompanyi yujuje bimwe mu bisabwa, nk'ivyerekeye gukorera mu muco ku bijanye n'ibitigiri vy'abantu babajijwe, igihe ibi biharuro vyegeranijwe n'uburyo vyegeranijwe ( mu guhamagara kuri terefone, ubutumwa bugufi kuri terefone, imbuga ngurukanabumenyi n'ubundi)

None twokwizera ibi biharuro ngereranyo?

Muri uno mwanya, ibi biharuro vyerekana ko Kamala Harris na Donald Trump basumbasumbanya amajwi makeya mu ntara mahindagu - rero iyo ibiharuro vyegeranye uku, biragoye cane kwibaza uwushobora gutsinda.

Mu matora ya 2016 n'aya 2020, ibiharuro ngereranyo vyariyobagije ingene Trump yari ashigikiwe. Ubu, amakompanyi yegeranya ibiharuro ngereranyo ariko agerageza gutorera umuti iyi ngorane mu buryo butandukanye, cane cane mu kugerageza kwerekana ko ibiharuro vyabo bizoba bivuye mu batora nyabo.

Ibi ntivyoroshe gushikako kuko aba begeranya ibiharuro ari ngombwa ko bakorera ku bindi bintu bishobora gufatirwako, nk'akarorero kumenya nimba koko ababazwa bazokwitabira amatora yo ku wa 5 Munyonyo.

Inkuru yateguwe kandi yandikwa na Mike Hills hamwe na Libby Rogers. Ibicapo vyateguwe na Joy Roxas.