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Region banks on money transfers
US dollar
The United States is the main source of remittances to Caribbean nations
For some Caribbean Community (Caricom) nations, the value of remittances can hardly be overstated.

For example, Guyana depends on these money transfers from citizens abroad for 23.5 percent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), according to the World Bank.

For Haiti, the figure falls to a fifth, and Jamaica, 19.4 percent.

Some international agencies have predicted that the money immigrants sent back home to their families in developing nations would likely fall as the international recession bites.

An October report by the Inter-American Development Bank predicted a two percent drop in 2008 for Latin America and the Caribbean, when adjusted for inflation.

The preliminary evidence so far suggests that some Caricom countries may be faring reasonably well in holding on to this welcome source of foreign exchange from the US and UK mainly.

Last quarter

Take Jamaica. According to Richard Bernal of the Inter-American Development Bank, the island actually experienced a 2008 third-quarter increase of 4 percent in remittances.

And he said indications were that a steady flow was maintained for the last quarter as well.

Full 2008 figures are not yet in.

Remittances to Caribbean: 2007
Country $m
Antigua 11
Barbados 140
Belize 66
Guyana 218
Haiti 1,184
Jamaica 2,021
Trinidad 92
World Bank

Richard Francis, a Caribbean analyst at Standard and Poor's, a Wall Street ratings firm, told BBC Caribbean the same seems to be true for Barbados.

He said this was probably due to the kind of immigrants from Barbados and to a lesser extent Jamaica.

He said: "A lot of them tend to be well-educated and go into fields such as nursing and teaching and one would expect those areas not to be as hard hit in the economic downturn."

Still, he cautioned: "We can expect some fall-off (in remittances) but not nearly as bad as the Dominican Republic or Mexico, for example."

Falling dollar

But should this be a surprise?

World Bank economist Dilip Ratha said last month that he expected that remittances would prove more resilient than capital flows and perhaps even official aid between now and 2010.

He said while migrants' incomes are affected by the economic slowdown, falling commodity prices and the rising US dollar have increased the purchasing power of remittances, allowing migrant workers to send home less with similar impact.

This might a factor in the money transfer trends to Jamaica, where the island's dollar has been falling.

"Despite a decline in the share of remittances in GDP, the contribution of remittances to the external position of developing countries will increase significantly during 2009-10," a World Bank brief has said.

In addition to the overall value of national economies, remittances are an important source of financial support for low-income families in receiving nations.

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