Debbie Ransome BBC Caribbean at the Caricom summit in Antigua

Every official and politician, speaking before boarding a flight to Antigua for the 29th meeting of the Caricom Heads of government summit, has been giving a similar version of the same message.

It’s nearly 40 years since the signing of the regional trade deal, Carifta, the precursor to Caricom.

Antigua was the site of that Carifta signing.

However, this Caricom Summit could be historic for other reasons too.

This could be the “make or break” get-together shaping the future fortunes of a region facing economic and global changes which are way beyond its control.

Trade

Caricom’s early deal with the European Union (EU) is a case in point.

Caricom signed up early after several high-level EU officials paid visits to put the pressure on the Caribbean in late 2007 to initial a deal.

The Economic partnerships agreements, or EPAs, are being negotiated by Europe with the separate blocs of Africa, the Caribbean, and the Pacific (ACP) to replace the joint preferential deals the ACP has with ACP.

	The EPA trade deal with the EU will be closely looked at

However, that agreement is being questioned by separate nation states as they find the devil in the detail of the deal which separates European trade with its former colonies.

Regional union groupings have also started to question the EPA details and Guyana’s president, Bharat Jagdeo, has been one of the leaders expressing reluctance to go to final approval.

Global changes

The summit also comes ahead of key geo-political changes in the Americas region which could change Caricom’s place in the regional pecking order.

A new relationship is inevitable with Washington in November whether a president Obama or a president McCain is elected.

Caricom’s marginalised role in George Bush’s Washington, speckled through the years with photo-op meetings with America’s great and good, could see further erosion under either of these two new administrations which will both have a lot to prove.

Within the Caribbean Sea, there’s also the looming potential of Cuba into which the whole of the English-speaking Caribbean could fit with room to fit.

Cuba, going through a sea of economic and other reforms, is rapidly shaping up to become the region’s new kid on the block.

In addition, a post-US embargo Cuba would offer the world a new Caribbean tourism, business, and investment destination which could easily eclipse what is left of Caricom’s role on the global stage.

Advance warnings

And these are some of the reasons why the June 2008 summit is a crossroads for Caricom.

Some leaders and many analysts are mindful of the importance of showing results from this summit.

	This Caricom summit must yield results

St Vincent and the Grenadines prime minister, Ralph Gonsalves, referred to the integration movement as 'ramshackle'.

Barbados’s Prime Minister, David Thompson, who holds lead responsibility in Caricom for the Single Market and Economy, urged member states not to run away from their obligations under the single trading market.

He did so despite speaking of his own reservations about some provisions of the Caricom single market.

To add to the signs of growing pessimism over the future of regional integration haunting this summit, veteran analyst, Norman Girvan, warned that Caricom is on the verge of collapsing.

Professor Girvan said that if steps were not taken to ensure that decisions taken to deepen regional integration are enforced, the grouping could become stagnant.

And veteran regional journalist and columnist, Rickey Singh, described Caricom as moving in an 'ad hoc' rather than a harmonised way.

Agenda

The agenda for the three-day summit was issued in the midst of open public questioning online and in local radio chat shows along the lines of "what is Caricom doing for us?"

To its credit, the agenda did highlight rising food and fuel prices as priority issues.

Then, it was announced that the leaders would give a large deal of their time this week to tourism – a topic which has been the focus of several recent conferences held at home and abroad.

An apt discussion topic at the beautiful sprawling complex of the Jolly Beach Resort in Antigua.

Whether the Caricom public will see it the same way remains to be seen.