Campaign Trail

Tough, but not impossible

• Matthew Price
• 28 Oct 08, 11:29 PM GMT

Today we travelled through driving rain, sleet, and fierce winds. We traveled under low, grey skies for several hours across Pennsylvania, a state that is playing a central role in this election. Both Barack Obama and John McCain held rallies here today, and that is interesting.

I suppose there's always a chance that Obama campaigned here to force his opponent to spend time and money in a state that the polls suggest McCain will be hard pushed to win.

Let's though assume that is not why he was here, and take the Obama campaign at its word when it says it is taking nothing for granted in a state they see important.

Both campaigns must see this state race as tighter than the polls suggest, otherwise they wouldn't be investing so much time, money and energy in Pennsylvania at this late stage.

Of course Barack Obama could still lose Pennsylvania and win the White House in a variety of ways. For John McCain this state is more crucial to his ambitions, and the polls don't look good, but he still says he can win here. To be fair, he also says he must win here.

At the latest Sarah Palin rally today the Republicans didn't look like a defeated party. They queued in blustery, chill-you-to-the-bone weather, for hours. Thousands of them showing their support. Many didn't get in and were very upset.

They told me they don't believe the polls, they think that McCain will win this election. How? Well, many believe his message on Barack Obama's redistributive tax policies is working its way into the minds of undecided voters.

That of course is anecdotal, and so is this but if we are to believe John McCain and heed his message to disregard the polls, then anecdotes are all we have to go on, and it matches what I've been hearing from lots of voters.

There are - in addition - some Democrats who are nervous.

The difficulty in this argument of course is that the polls as a whole are saying the same thing, to varying degrees. They are pointing to an Obama victory.

Look though at the poll that, according to Republican strategist Karl Rove, came closest to calling the 2004 election. Today it's suggesting a wider lead for Obama, but it's still in the lower single digits.

Yes, yes, yes. McCain needs some pretty complex mathematical equations to add up in his favour, and he needs voters to shift towards him in a way the polls suggest they haven't been in the last few weeks.

All I'm saying is while the route to a McCain victory is tough, it is not impossible.

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