Does El Nino mean a harsh UK winter ahead?

In March, observations in the Pacific confirmed that a weak El Nino event was upon us, with scientists now believing that there is a 70% chance that the phenomena will last through summer, and a 60% chance that it will last through autumn.

El Nino is the name given to describe an upwelling of warmer than average water in the Equatorial Pacific, and is known to disrupt climate patterns around the world.

During previous El Nino events, much wetter winters have occurred in Southwest USA.

For California, the developing El Nino will therefore be welcome news following a chronic lack of rainfall.

The Australian bureau of meteorology has predicted that it could strengthen, with a risk of a ‘substantial’ event.

But caution is required – other models suggest it will remain weak or moderate at best – moreover computer models are notoriously unreliable when it comes to this type of prediction.

There’s been a lot of talk in the media this week about the possible impact El Nino will have here in the UK, with talk of a harsh winter ahead.

Research suggests that it can cause colder, drier conditions in Northern Europe, and wetter, milder winters through southern Europe and the Mediterranean in response to a jet stream that is forced further south than normal.

During the last El Nino of 2009/2010, the winter across northern Europe, including the UK, was exceptionally cold.

But there are many other factors which affect our climate.

Indeed there was a deep, protracted solar minimum at the same time, which is known to increase the likelihood of colder winters.

And despite El Nino of 2006/2007, Europe’s winter was mild.

So it’s far too soon, and far too simplistic, to suggest that next winter will be cold solely in response to El Nino.

But higher global temperatures are almost certain.

That means 2015 is odds on to becoming the warmest globally on instrumental record.