Beware February with a sting in its tail
Paul Hudson
With last week’s suggested cold spell by computer models (in particular by the usually reliable ECMWF model) failing to materialise, it will now take something exceptionally cold in February for winter as a whole not to end up in the mild category.
Based on the Met Office’s modern data set which started in 1910, December was the eighth mildest on record across the UK, and the mildest since 1988.
The warmth also shows up in Central England Temperature (CET) data, with December ranked 33rd in 356 years of data.
January is so far even more impressive, currently standing at 17th warmest since 1659 in the CET record as we head into the last third of the month.
But before we write off winter completely, it is often forgotten that February is statistically the coldest month of the year, and one of the driest.
Indeed in many eastern areas the second half of February is the driest period of the year.
This reminds us that the jet stream, which is normally at its most powerful during the first half of winter, often weakens in February increasing the risk of our weather being influenced by colder air from the north or the east, associated with higher pressure.
It’s impossible to say for sure, but it would be a surprise if there wasn’t at least one spell of cold and possible wintry weather in February to round off a winter which has been so far, contrary to all long range forecasts that I read back in autumn, remarkably snow and frost free.
