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Iceland Volcano Latest

Paul Hudson |13:06 UK time, Thursday, 15 April 2010



The Icelandic Volcanic eruption is causing much disruption to air travellers across the UK this afternoon. The huge plume of ash is being steered by winds high up in the atmosphere across the UK posing a potential risk to airliners.

In 1989, a KLM Royal Dutch Airlines Boeing 747 flew into an ash cloud from Alaska's Redoubt volcano and lost all power, dropping from 25,000 feet to 12,000 feet (7,500 meters to 3,600) before the crew could get the engines restarted. The plane landed safely.

So it's not surprising that the authorities have grounded flights this afternoon. And with meteorological conditions unlikely to change much in the next few hours, there must be a risk of further disruption to flights tonight and into tomorrow.

The diagram below shows projections for the volcanic plume at midnight tonight - the red line indicates the 20,000ft flight level - showing that large parts of the UK are still expected to have ash in the higher atmosphere which could affect flights in and out of the UK.

Volcano.jpg



But those worried about the risk of air pollution should be reassured. The ash is so high in the atmosphere, and with settled weather conditions at the moment, experts say it is unlikely that any of the ash will transfer to the ground, so an impact on the air we breathe is not expected in the next few days.

UPDATE AT 3PM

Latest projections show no real change to position of volcanic ash at 7am Friday morning, all non emergency flights as a result of this have been grounded at least until this time. See new projection below.

Volcano2.jpg

It's a shame that skies are likely to be too cloudy across Yorkshire this evening to witness what could be a spectacular sunset, as the ash high in the atmosphere scatters light to the red end of the visible spectrum. We may be luckier tomorrow with some cloud breaks by dawn leading potentially to a dramatic sunrise for some places.

UPDATE 7.30pm

An update for you on the volcanic ash affecting UK flights. The latest projection for tomorrow again shows very little change across the UK, with volcanic ash at 20,000ft across much of the UK. This would suggest that it's unlikely that there will be any flights before 1pm tomorrow afternoon at the earliest, but a decision will be made shortly by the relevant authorities.

Volcano3.jpg

Looking further ahead, winds aloft increase and turn more westerly for Saturday, giving a better chance of dispersal. But if the volcano is still erupting on Sunday and Monday, winds switch back to a direction which may threaten the UK with more upper level ash.

Contrary to earlier indications, there are now some reports of ash being deposited in the Shetland Islands, with people apparently experiencing a bitter taste. This means that some surface deposition is taking place and it is conceivable that a very slight deposit of some ash is possible in the morning.

UPDATE at 8am Friday 16th April

Latest projections still indicate ash at 20,000 ft across England and Wales at 1am Saturday morning, although a clearance is seen across Ireland and Scotland by that time. Flight disruption across England and Wales consequently unlikely to ease until at least that time, although the relevent authorities will be making an official decision shortly.

Upper level winds still indicate a Westerly developing on saturday, giving the hope of a general clearance developing on saturday; but the risk remains that if the volcano is still erupting on Sunday and early next week, ash could return as the upper level winds switch back to the North or Northwest.



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