Ah man. I wanted to come her and spout my opinion, contradicting Marks ideas and ranting on about my own but, unfortunately, everything I was going to predict he mentioned.

Those five would be exactly the winners I would pick, not because I want them or think they are the most deserving, but because the academy is so damn predictable.

Hahahaha your probably right, although it would be great if it wasn't, i'm getting fed up of this "its their time" thing.

And yes Avatar probably will win best film, like Friedkin said the Academy Awards are "the greatest promotion scheme that any industry ever devised for itself".

Now predict all the other categories :)

Mark, if Avatar wins best picture I will be very annoyed. I think The Hurt Locker will win both best picture and director, but I agree with the rest of your predictions. I am hoping that the Coen brothers win best original screenplay for A Serious Man but I have a feeling they will give that to Tarantino.

Just tried to have a flutter based upon your predictions, all are currently favourites according to the bookies, and they are not taking an accumulator. They obviously remember your Danny Baker show appearance.

Dear Dr. K,





I do think that you are bang-on with your predictions and they do bring to mind something Ridley Scott asked once:



How can the director of a film that wins Best Picture NOT win Best Director? It doesn't make a whole lot of sense really does it?



Ponder that?

Time to make some money :-)

It's a sin Fred Melamed isn't nominated for Best Supporting Actor for A Serious Man.



And that Tom Hardy isn't up for Bronson, but he should nudge Andy Serkis aside for the Kermode.



Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs not being up for Best Animated Picture's disappointing too, as it deserves it far more than Up, which I just don't understand the fuss around. It's just not that good.



It might be best for Clooney to win this year, thinking about it. I'd hate to think he'll be turned down again (albeit for directing last time) because it'll only happen again and again, then in his late 50s he'll find himself in a horribly worthy and earnest Oscar-baiter and win by default. I've a feeling he might win.

Having read full nomination list, I was very happy that my favorite film of the year

Terry Gilliam's THE IMAGINARIUM OF DR. PARNASSUSS, picked up 2 noms ART DIRECTION (which it should win, but i'm sure wont) and COSTUME DESIGN.



To stick my neck out I think Dr. K, is wrong in stating Christoph Waltz will be Inglorious B%$£@^&^'s only win, I think Tarantino will pick up ORIGIONAL SCREENPLAY.



Here's hoping that IN THE LOOP get ADAPTED SCREENPLAY too.

Also, it does bug me the whole "IT'S THEIR TIME" thing, you'd think the Academy would learn from their mistakes, wouldn't it be much better for Carry Muligan to win this year rather than 15 years and 5 nominations down the line; more than likely with a performance not as good as the one she's currently nominated for.

I think...

Best Film - The Hurt Locker

Best Director - Quentin Tarantino (never won best director, won screenplay and I think he might win it)

Best Actor - Jeff Bridges

Best Actress - Sandra Bullock

Best Supporting Actor - Christoph Waltz

Best Supporting Actress - Mo'Nique

Best Screenplay - Coen Brothers? maybe Nick Hornby?

Best Adapted Screenplay - Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner

I think Avatar is gonna get shunned, Cameron won everything for Titanic more or less and I think he will not win anything except the obvious ones like special effects, sound design etc...

they haven't been taking accumulators for a while now, especially when the bets are related

the bookies have realised that often director and film go hand in hand so they won't take a double on that



but they have split on previous occasions, for example spielberg winning for saving private ryan and shakespeare in love winning for best film



i agree with all of your choices except for best picture, which i think is way too close to call. i think the hurt locker just might get it, for several reasons



one being james cameron has already had his moment at the podium



the changing demographics of the academy means that their choice for best picture has become less mainstream. Although they are never shy to give it to a big money earner, they often make political statements by awarding particular winners, and this could be another "Platoon" winner.



also, the largest block of academy voters are actors, and avatar lacks any worthy acting whastsoever.



What also goes against Avatar's chances is that people are yes amazed by the spectacle and the journey, but as a story and a performance piece it is average at best. there's also seems to be a lack of genuine love for the film



furthermore oscar nominated films are heavily promoted through screener copies, which might put avatar at a disadvantage, as it is really reliant on the big screen for its spectacle and I doubt very much that people will be able to bring themselves to vote for it after seeing it at home, devoid of all the bells and whisteles



i still think that if the hurt locker is promoted well enough it might win best picture but it really needs to be heavily promoted amongst academy voters, and it really needs to capture the zeitgist, which it has completely failed to do with the public



the fact that people have not gone to see the film is really hindering the hurt locker's chances severely



also, many academy voters tend to vote for films that make a lot of money for hollywood, which has a lot of buzz about it, and which have drawn people to the cinema. they might even vote for such a film even thoguh they themselves have not even seen it.



the hurt locker is by far the better film, but it has been so unpopular at the box office, it has been marketed so terribly and unimaginatively that it might fail at the big one, which is a shame, cause i'll bet you in a couple of years time, when all the hype has died down, no one will give two hoots about avatar

I do agree with Mark's predictions but you didn't need 25 years of criticism or to have even seen the films to make those five. It is as clear cut as it has ever been.



One bookmaker has



Picture: Avatar 8/15 and The Hurt Locker 11/8

Director: Bigelow 4/7 Cameron 11/10

Actor: Bridges 1/5 Clooney 4/1

Actress: Bullock 8/11 Streep 6/4

Sup Actor: Waltz 1/14 Harrelson 9/1

Sup Actress: Monique 1/10 Cruz/Kendrick 11/1



Who does Mark think will win Adapted and Original screenplay? My guess is Hornby for An Education and Boal for Hurt Locker.

I think the only really tough one to pick this year is best foreign language film.



And Mark, I understand your concerns over the evils of gambling but there's no denying your talent... maybe next year you could let us avid blog readers know the big 6 winners before the nominations? Then we can all rush to the bookies and secure our suites in hell before the odds change.

A £25 accumulator on all those bets is paying out £120. Suppose it would have been much more to bet on them before the noms.

Jeff Bridges should get a lifetime achievement award, never mind a best actor award.



What is noticeable is that following the past few years when awards were heaped on films that few people actually went and watched such as Milk and Brokeback (followed by the studios responding by threatening to ignore the ceremony), this year’s nominations are full of films that have mainly done reasonable to good box-office.



Ten nominations for best picture also means more films can now put ‘Nominated for the Oscar for best picture’ on their DVD boxes.

I bet the studio bosses and their stars will turn out in force now . That might also mean Sandra Bullock will get her moment, just to show that the academy can recognise mainstream success.



Avatar should do well in the technical awards; but Hurt Locker might get both the best picture and best director awards; but if the academy wanted to show some independence then a best picture award for UP would finally recognise animated films worth, reward Pixar’s box office record and be a populist choice.

Jeeeez Mark... I like your Movie criticisms but indoctrinate your methodist ways on me

sorry meant to say don't indoctrinate your methodist ways on me

There's something almost Satanic about the way he says 'gambling's a sin'. They clearly cut off the end where he smirks and opens the door to the casino for us.

No Mark - ignorance is a sin. You lost all that money because you lacked knowledge. Plain and simple.

First time commenting. I thought it would be a good time to do so, with the oscars coming up and everything.



To be honest, your predictions were exactly what i expected Dr K. If i was a betting man (but i have been put off by your subtle warning) they are the same winners i would go for.



Still, i hope District 9 gets some awards. It is my favourite film of the year. But i'm only a youngster, which usually means my opinion is ignored... :(

Going to be controversial and say Avatar won't win best picture. Well it might if people keep saying it will, but it wouldn't otherwise. Perhaps. I'll still say it won't.



Unless it does.



Do the Academy voters really want that t be the future of cinema? How many of them won't have work?

As for Avatar being the success the industry needs right now...b******s. I've just read that this $2 billion grossing behemoth has been a major shot in the arm for the media empire of Rupert Murdoch, arch war propagandist and Satan's official representative on Earth.



Rather ironic in the light of the film's anti-war/imperialist message and Marks God bothering.

If betting is a sin - tell that to all those bankers, who's punishing them.



And, after all, isn't every film a gamble?

Mark, I guess you're not a betting man *in best Tom Waits drawl*



They are the likely winners, particularly in the acting categories where your predictions follow the winners of the Screen Actors Guild awards.



My predictions are:



Best Picture: Up In The Air - an actor's film and very topical. Would be a shock of Crash-like proportions though.



Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker) - its her time and her film is the best directed of the top 5.



Best Actor: Jeff Bridges - Even though he appears to be playing a country music version of Mickey Rourke's character in The Wrestler



Best Actress: Carey Mulligan - I have a sneaking suspicion that Sandra Bullock may be this year's Mickey Rourke or Bill Murray. Just because it may be the Academy's only chance to award her doesn't mean they should.



Best Supp. Actor: Christoph Waltz - Move over being in a holocaust movie, playing a memorable villian is now the best way to Oscar glory



Best Supp. Actress: Mo'Nique - Has swept all before her and this is a category where predictable choice usually wins.

Mark, if it's any consolation the bookies don't take accumulators on the Oscars. This may have been the case a few years ago (and wouldn't it be nice to assume so)!



Also, take a joke folks, Mark ain't preaching to us. He's just warning us that with gambling, even when you win, you lose!

See, The Hurt Locker is a beautifully directed film but it's lack of a decent narrative will kill its 'Best Film' chances I think. I saw it twice in the cinema and was bored the second time. Whereas, once the shock and awe of Avatar is out the way it improves on second viewing.

Gambling is only a sin if you place a bet without an accumulator ;)



Good set of predictions, but perhaps someone can explain why "It's their turn" is a valid reason to win an Oscar award? Here's me thinking winning should be based on merit.



Oh wait, it's the Oscars. Silly me.

Dr. K,



Sorry this is off topic - but I know you were looking forward to the release of the new Philip Ridley film, Heartless. Have you seen the official trailer yet, released today? And how about the news that it's being released on DVD just three days after its cinema release! Anyway, it looks great!

i still think james cameron will win the best director award though, but if he doesnt then katheryn bieglow is dead set to win.

I think these nominations are pretty much conclusive to show how pointless the Oscars truly are. They might sell more films, but as a body to celebrate the achievement of cinema it's pointless.



@Spanking the Chiba

I've seen Heartless. It's a pretty incredible piece of film making. Not a perfect film but there are some moments in the film which are unalike any other director's film. I couldn't recommend Heartless enough....

I have to agree with you Mark. Although I think Avatar will win best director as well (and a host of others).



After actually giving awards to actual proper films last year, it will be back to congratulating itself for its technical wizardry.



That said, it will be interesting to see how well Avatar does on DVD (without the 3D?) even with a hatful of Oscars.

hatful of Oscars

--

'hat full of Oscars', sorry. Wow, does that count as a Freudian slip? :)

Did you see the Razzie nominees, Mark? Transformers 2 was up for pretty much every award thankfully. Michael Bay is long overdue for a Razzie. He deserves one.



There seems to be a bit of controversy over the Best Picture nomination to 'The Blind Side' - I've heard many people say it's the absolute worst film ever nominated for Best Picture and a big mistake one the Academy's behalf. Especially when movies like 'Moon' and 'Where the Wild Things Are' were snubbed.



Which doesn't shock me in the least. The trailers for it looks atrocious.



Bullock is probably going to win both the Oscar and the Razzie (for 'All About Steve') this year. Pretty humorous.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKrQ0umHUGA can we all please start referring to Michael Bay as MA-BA-SBLOOM! from now on.

I'm all for that nickname as splosives are my forte. Still, I think it needs to be shortened to BayGod or GodBay or something that sounds pig latin and has my name associated with a deity.

I think you need to stick an outside bet in amongst them to make it worthwile as the current odds on you predictions are ridiculously small. I´d go for Lee Daniels as Best Director 66 to 1 and/or Colin Firth as Best Actor at 20 to 1. If that came in we´d be talking about

some wickedly serious SIN!

Gotta say that I saw the Hurt Locker a while back and was blown away-oops! However, I agree with one of the above poster's comments that Avatar becomes better and better on repeated viewings. I fell in love with the story that so many mock and indeed the characters.



I really hope that Jeff Bridges gets it finally as he should have for Starman twenty six years ago.



Watched An Education last night and like- WOW! Yes give it to her- Sandra Bullock- give me strength...

I think you are wrong about the Best Picture winner this year, Mark. I know it is an extreme longshot, but I'm putting MY dollars (not pounds, mind you) on "Chariots of Fire."

Good luck with your new book, by the way. I think W.P. Blatty owes you a nice blurb for it, don't you?

Best wishes,

Mike B.

Ok, fine.. Those are all pretty straight forward predictions. YOu don't need to be a movie critic to know that Jeff Bridges or Sandra Bullock are going to win... But what about Original screenplay?

Are you so brave to guess that one too?

Just back from a spot of temporal hopping, and here's who wins:



Best Film - Avatar

Best Director - James Cameron

Best Actor - Jeff Bridges

Best Actress - Sandra Bullock

Best Supporting Actor - Christoph Waltz

Best Supporting Actress - Mo'Nique

I am currently in chapter 4 of Mark's audiobook, and I think the screenplay will be a dark horse entry for Best Screenplay next year. The wind machine scene makes me tingle with anticipation of seeing it in 3D.

I'm overwhelmed. How do you all find it so easy to make these predictions?

I've just spent over an hour looking at past Oscar-wining trends to try and make sense of it all (https://bit.ly/9GPAIQ%29

But I'm still finding it impossible. I hope you're right about Bigelow though, Mark.

Will BBC users be able to see if Kermode's predictions awards come true as they happen?... NO. Once again, those of use without Sky will not be able to view the Oscars, since live coverage is on Sky Movies and highlights show is on Sky1. When will the BBC try to get full coverage of the Oscars back?

5 outta 6 ain't bad :)

Hi Mark



Hurt Locker was ALWAYS going to win the Best Picture Oscar because of the change to the voting system this year. For the first time the Academy picture was voted for by Alternative Vote system not First Past the Post.



Avatar will have been the film with the largest number of people making it their first choice. (and in previous years with only one vote allowed it would have won, same as Titanic)



However under AV voters rank their preferences and therefore once the votes for first place are counted and there is no overall majority they count they add people second choices and so on.



Avatar is a film that will have a far greater number of detractors, than a film like the Hurt Locker. So whereas many people who chose Avatar as number one will have picked Hurt Locker as number two most people that voted for any of the other 9 choices as number one will not have voted for Avatar at all. The Hurt Locker will have picked up the vast majority of secondary votes taking it to over half and an obvious Oscar win.



I think that this will significantly change of the awards from now on, for the better this year but in the future may mean that consensus will win out over innovation.



Shane

And how many of us on this blog were able to view either the live Oscars or the Oscars highlights?