Guest post: Breaking down the stats

This is a guest post by BBC Jersey Editor and election 'statmaster', Denzil Dudley, breaking down the statistics from the 2010 Senatorial by-election.

On election night Denzil acted as BBC Jersey's answer to Jeremy Vine, the man with all the stats - held on his self created 'Senatometer' - a complicated spreadsheet collecting results as they come in.

In an e-mail to BBC Jersey staff the morning after the election Denzil explored the statistics and what might have, could have and may have happened.

The by-election was to fill a seat vacated by former Senator Stuart Syvret, who lost it after leaving the island for six months.

Mr Syvret stood again as a candidate for the seat he lost, using it to make a case about corruption in the island's parliament.

There was criticism on some local blogs about other 'progressive' candidates standing against him.

Before looking at the breakdown, the first piece of information useful to know is that Francis le Gresley won by 2,361 votes.

This means that even if Geoff Southern hadn't stood and everyone who voted for him ( 1,085 people) had voted for Stuart Syvret instead, Mr. Syvret would still have lost by 1,277 votes.

Even if Geoff Southern, Nick Le Cornu, Gino Risoli, Philip Maguire and Peter Remon-Whorral hadn't stood and everyone who voted for them had voted for Stuart Syvret, he would still have lost by 720 votes.

There was also a clear division between the top three and the rest in terms of votes / % of the vote:

Le Gresley: 37.3%
Syvret: 22.1%
Ryan: 20.7%

Then

Baudains: 8.6 %
Southern: 7.0 %
and the others.

Stuart Syvret was lying third until the St. Helier declaration (the last one) when his vote raised him to second overall. Le Gresley won St. Helier by just 10 votes over Syvret (1,007 to 997).

The small turnout (26.5%) meant that by the time the results came to the "big two" (St Saviour & St. Helier) Le Gresley had built up such a lead in the "country" parishes that Stuart Syvret's task was almost impossible.

So, when it came to the last declaraton in St. Helier, in order to win the election, Syvret would have had to take around 80% of the votes cast.

The other story of the night was that the JDA vote simply collapsed - even in their St. Helier heartland -. If it was a disappointment for Stuart Syvret, it was a disaster for Geoff Southern. What price Party Politics?

Gerard Baudains beat Geoff Southern for fourth place and garnered a total of 1,329 Votes. If Geoff Southern hadn't stood, it would not have affected the final result.