The link between simple probability and expected frequency is explored using a combination of statistics to investigate risk and its impact on life.
Part ofApplications of MathsStatistical skills
John wants to travel from London to Edinburgh.
If he catches the train there is a probability of \(\frac{7}{9}\) that he will arrive on time.
If he flies there is a probability of \(\frac{3}{4}\) that he will arrive on time.
Which method of transport should John take to have the best chance of arriving on time?
Remember to justify your decision.
To compare the two probabilities you will need to use equivalent fractions.
The lowest common multiple of 4 and 9 is 36, so we will use the equivalent fractions of \(\frac{7}{9}\) and \(\frac{3}{4}\) with denominators of 36.
For the train: \(\frac{7}{9} = \frac{{28}}{{36}}\)
For the flight: \(\frac{3}{4} = \frac{{27}}{{36}}\)
The train has a better chance of arriving on time so John should take the train.
