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Friday, 18 October, 2002, 10:59 GMT 11:59 UK
Analysis: unionist viewpoint
AP
Challenges for unionism

Almost 60% of unionist voters in Northern Ireland now say they do not want to share power with either the nationalist SDLP or Sinn Fein. This figure in the BBC NI Hearts and Minds poll indicates a dramatic turn around.

Polls taken shortly after the 1998 referendum showed more than 70% of unionists were backing power-sharing

This latest poll, carried out after the most recent suspension of the Northern Ireland Assembly, catches a moment of public anger amongst unionists.

Power sharing

Within that, it is unsurprising that no DUP voters would share power with Sinn Fein, as they have always refused to do business with that party.

What is surprising is that only 36% of Ulster Unionist voters are willing to share power with the nationalist SDLP. The two parties have already worked together in the now suspended executive.

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In terms of overall support for the Agreement, the backing of 56% of the voters is the lowest since the referendum.

Although some polls on the eve of the referendum showed not dissimilar figures, the increase in support ensuring the passing of the referendum back in 1998 was prompted by the Blair magic.

Tracking the figures, the sharp drop in support has happened in the last year.

This is hardly surprising given recent events allegedly involving republicans. The Castlereagh break in, the arrest of three known republicans in Colombia and the recent allegations of spying at Stormont all add to this downturn.

Leading unionism

Despite this considerable disillusionment, the fact that David Trimble is still the most popular leader within unionism suggests a lot of people within that community believe it was right to attempt a compromise

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The poll suggests he is currently enjoying the support of almost 42% of the total unionist voters polled. Within his own party his support also appears to be holding strong against potential contenders for his job.

The poll suggests that of UUP respondents Mr Trimble secured over 76% support. Fellow Ulster Unionist MP Jeffrey Donaldson was only nominated by 12.8% as the most effective leader of unionism.

Another interesting finding of the poll is the unionist attitude to united Ireland.

The pessimism of unionists in this regard is slowly dropping. The so-called "dismal vision" in this respect does not seem to be as dismal as it was.

Overall, what is revealed by the latest figures is a picture of two polarising communities, with Sinn Fein clearly extending its lead of the SDLP - part of the reason of the unionist disillusionment.

See also:

17 Oct 02 | N Ireland
17 Oct 02 | N Ireland
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