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 Thursday, 23 January, 2003, 09:50 GMT
No festive slowdown on High Street
London bus in Oxford Street
The post-Christmas sales got off to a flying start
Fears of a consumer slowdown over Christmas and New Year appear to have been blown away by official retail sales figures.

This comes as a big surprise and begs the question - where is the consumer slowdown?

David Page, Investec
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), retail sales volumes rose by 1.1% between November and December and by 6.4% in the year to December. Clothing sales led the way.

The figures are stronger than even the most optimistic City forecasts - and sharply at odds with surveys from the British Retail Consortium and bosses group CBI.

The ONS figures cover a slightly longer period than the other surveys, suggesting the post-Christmas sales got off to a very strong start.

But the figures will still cast doubt on doubt on whether consumers are easing off on spending.

The volume of sales may be up sharply, but the value of sales is growing slower, which suggests that consumers are getting cannier and shop for bargains.

And economists say they might mean interest rates stay on hold for some months to come, as opposed to falling.

An 'incredible surge'

"It's certainly very different to what markets were expecting but given the difficulties in seasonal adjustment around Christmas, there was a risk there could be a marked difference from consensus," said George Buckley, an analysts at Deutsche Bank.

"It's true to say consumers are not as weak as some of the surveys were suggesting but because of the seasonal adjustment, I would not also be surprised to see a heavy fall in January."

David Page of Investec described the figures as an "absolutely incredible surge".

He added: "This comes as a big surprise and begs the question - where is the consumer slowdown?

"The Bank (of England) will be looking at the data for the January period as well but it does reduce expectations of an interest rate cut soon."

Will the UK economy feel the impact of the US slowdown?

Economic indicators

Analysis

UK rate decisions
See also:

22 Jan 03 | Scotland
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