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Last Updated: Tuesday, 17 October 2006, 16:42 GMT 17:42 UK
Q&A: Assembly government budget
The Welsh Assembly Government has published its final draft budget but opposition parties have said they will not support it. And First Minister Rhodri Morgan has consistently warned his minority government could fall without an agreement on the budget's contents.

How much money is in the budget?

The assembly government's budget for 2007/8 is the final instalment of a three-year budget, and is worth a grand total of �14.6bn. However, the vast majority of this money had already been allocated when the three-year budget was first presented, back in the autumn of 2004.

What will it actually deliver for people in Wales?

The assembly government says this draft budget demonstrates their ability to deliver record investment in public services. More specifically, they stress that this budget represents the final instalment of their manifesto pledges - including �29.5m for free prescriptions, free bus travel for pensioners, free school breakfasts, and almost �1.5bn of capital investment in school and hospital buildings.

Is there any "new" money here?

Yes - but only just. Finance Minister Sue Essex has announced an extra �74m, released from assembly government's financial reserves. This is on top of the funds already allocated in previous budgets - but represents only about 0.5% of the total. Unlike in previous years, this budget does not include any new money from the treasury. It does not include any new spending allocations from funds that may have been under spent by assembly government departments during the course of the year. Nevertheless the budget as whole sees a growth of 6.2% - an overall increase of �810m.

How is all the money being spent?

As ever, the largest slice of the financial cake goes to health and social services, which will receive almost �5.5bn. Local government will receive a slightly tighter settlement than expected, at just over �4bn. Education and lifelong learning will receive a higher than expected �1.7m, while �1.5bn has been allocated for the department of enterprise innovation and networks. Between them, these four departments within the assembly government are set to receive about �12.5bn - the lion's share of the total budget of �14.6bn.

Size isn't everything - who are the real winners?

This is almost impossible to answer, but the assembly government has drawn attention to a number of priority areas, that have benefited from the general growth in the size of the 2007/8 budget. Among these, is �31m for adult social care, �22m for early years and support for children, �12m for the fire and rescue service, and �6m for food and nutrition in schools.

What about the extra �74m?

These in many ways are the real winners - because this really is "new" spending. For example, there's an extra �5.2m for dentistry, �15m per year for capital investment in local roads, �1.5m in revenue funding for the new Ebbw Vale railway, �7m for capital investment in schools, and �1m for the coastal path. These are all new, extra financial commitments, over and above any existing spending plans.

Are the opposition parties happy with the budget?

No. Not at all. They say it's an "unacceptable", "insufficient", and a "disappointing" budget, which "fails to deliver a fair deal for Wales".

What does the opposition want?

Quite simply, the three opposition parties and the two independent assembly members have published a list of a dozen or so demands, which they want the assembly government to properly reflect in the budget. The demands include restoring the previous more generous level of Tir Mynydd agricultural payments; more money for the Welsh Ambulance Service; invest more money directly to schools; more funding for transport grants, foster carers and community radio stations, as well as financial assistance for local authorities to overcome any problems in dealing with landfill sites and the capital costs of improving care homes.

What would that cost?

The opposition parties have refused to say how much their list of demands would cost. They say it isn't a "wish-list," and that they're not out to wreck the budget. They won't say in public what their demands would cost, because they regard it as a key part of their negotiation strategy with the assembly government, which should now start in earnest over the next few weeks.

How much money is being held back by the assembly government?

The assembly government has maintained a reserve fund of around �153m. This represents just over 1% of the budget. It says it would be "irresponsible" to reduce the level of the reserves any further, and will resist any attempts by the opposition parties to dip into what is essentially a emergency or contingency fund.

How has local government responded?

The Welsh Local Government Association has said the draft budget is "reasonable in the circumstances", but that pressures remain in a number of key local service areas. The overall settlement for local government in Wales is 4.3%, but there are concerns about how councils will cover the costs of equal pay and waste management.

So what happens next?

Much depends on how willing the assembly government will be over the next few weeks to discuss a compromise with the opposition parties. The first test will come in the public arena, with a debate in the Senedd building on the 24 October. The opposition will table a joint amendment calling for the assembly government to include their own spending priorities within the budget. Since they have a numerical majority, then this could force Rhodri Morgan's government to re-think many parts of the budget. The assembly government will also consult with the assembly's subject committees, before a final budget is presented towards the end of November or the beginning of December. If the opposition continue to reject the budget, then it could fundamentally undermine the legitimacy of Rhodri Morgan's government.


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