Is Scottish opinion polls apart?

By Brian Taylor Political editor, BBC Scotland

I have a particular fondness for fixed points in journalism. They are curiously comforting.

Mr Salmond has every reason to switch on the benign smile

For example, the public accounts committee of the House of Commons is always described as "influential".

Any politician condemning their own leadership can expect to be billed as "senior", as if juniors are thought unworthy of independent thought.

More generally, earthquakes are listed according to their status on the Richter Scale. They are always said to "measure x.y on the Richter Scale". This is said with due solemnity.

Be honest. Do you truly understand the Richter Scale? If told that a quake was 3.1, would you know instantly whether that was sufficient to fell a city or merely produce a minor disturbance of sleep patterns?

Yet, if denied the Richter details, we would somehow feel cheated.

Another charmingly fixed point concerns opinion polls. Politicians confronted with positive polls will inevitably smile with benign contentment while stressing that they are "not complacent".

Politicians facing a stinker of an opinion survey will say, without fail, that "the only poll which counts is at the general election". This formulation is mandatory. It may even be in the Scotland Act.

Of late, Alex Salmond has been deploying the benign smile. His opponents, notably Wendy Alexander, have been more reliant on the only poll which counts.

Polling is sadly somewhat sporadic in Scotland these days, with no media organisation prepared to commission a regular survey which would give us indications of a consistent trend

Let us look firstly at voting intention. The Salmond smile, never far from his visage, is perhaps understandable.

He led the race in the Holyrood general election last May by what one of his new (or returning) parliamentary colleagues would undoubtedly call a "baw hair".

The colleague who used that emotive phrase on a previous occasion was Kenny Gibson. By delicious irony, it was Mr Gibson's remarkable victory over Labour in Cunninghame North which added the final hair to the... let's not go there.

Since then, however, the SNP has appeared to thrive in the Holyrood polls.

Polling is sadly somewhat sporadic in Scotland these days, with no media organisation prepared to commission a regular survey which would give us indications of a consistent trend.

However, since the election, the SNP has seemingly strengthened its position, sitting in the lead and in the upper 30s at least, with the exception of a single poll.

Indeed, a recent Scottish opinion poll for the Daily Mail suggested the SNP had reached 40% in popular Holyrood support, with Labour on 33, Tories third on 13 and the Liberal Democrats fourth on 10.

'Intriguing picture'

Couple of caveats. As noted above, there are now relatively few polls in Scotland. Further, we are three years from the next Holyrood election.

Such polls as there have been on Westminster voting intention suggest that the SNP might be, at best, neck and neck with Labour, reflecting a trend whereby the SNP tend to perform better at Holyrood.

However, Mr Salmond has every reason to switch on the benign smile. After a year in office, it would appear that his popularity has increased.

That is borne out by other surveys suggesting that his personal standing remains high.

Let us look next at popular opinion with regard to independence. This presents a truly intriguing picture - with one or two fascinating caveats.

Firstly, that picture. Glance at certain surveys and it would seem independence has moved forward as an option in popular opinion since the elections in May.

For example, System Three/TNS for the Sunday Herald discerned 35% support for independence as against 50% opposition when they surveyed opinion in August 2007.

By April 2008, the same polling organisation, commissioned by the same paper, found an apparent turn-around with 41% favouring independence and 40% opposed.

Opinion on independence may be taking the pre-election position

By contrast, glance at YouGov in the Telegraph this week. It suggests that, by 59 to 25, voters prefer to retain the present Scottish Parliament over the option of "a completely separate state outside the UK".

Let us look into this a little more closely. Glance back a little further.

For example, in January 2007, ICM for the Mail found an apparent approval rating of 51% for Scotland becoming independent, against 36% disapproval.

It could be argued, in some polls, opinion on this issue is largely returning to its pre-election position.

A second caveat. Popular opinion on this issue has tended to vary down the decades, apparently influenced by the wording of the question.

Any wording that refers to "ending the Union" or some such disruptive outcome, as opposed to stressing Scottish independence, has tended to generate notably lower support.

Caveat number three. We have dealt thus far with polls which pose a straight choice: independence, yea or nay.

Polls which offer other options tend to paint a different picture with apparently substantial support for devolution with enhanced powers.

For example, this week's Telegraph poll suggested additional powers attracted more support than either independence or the status quo.

This could all be telling us a story about a putative referendum. If it is a straight choice over independence, then the outcome could hinge on which argument is to the fore, whose voice is heard.

Would voters heed the Nationalist case that independence would be liberating, would help Scotland enhance its status?

If asked, people in Scotland seem overwhelmingly to favour the notion of a referendum on the constitutional future

Or would they hear the Unionist language: that the SNP would end the Union, would break from Britain?

If the referendum is a three-way choice, including the option of added powers, then it appears that the voters might go for that.

Final word. There is one relatively fixed point in the fluid world of opinion surveys. If asked, people in Scotland seem overwhelmingly to favour the notion of a referendum on the constitutional future.

They like the concept of being asked to deliver their verdict. Which presents another potential opportunity for Mr Salmond.

Say he advances his proposal for a referendum: either a straight choice over independence or a multi-option ballot including the alternative of devolution max.

Say that suggestion is thwarted by the first minister's political opponents at Holyrood.

Mr Salmond could perhaps then look for popular sympathy if and when he voices righteous indignation at the subsequent Scottish Parliamentary elections.

Is it any wonder he's smiling?

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