Click here for his review of 2001

Welcome to "Old Baker's Almanac" and the annual predictions for the education year ahead.

These come guaranteed for accuracy (well almost). Just look at the record.

A year ago, I predicted that 2001 would see David Blunkett move from education secretary to become home secretary. Within six months he was gone.

Other predictions included: Ofsted to take a lower profile under Mike Tomlinson, former chief inspector Chris Woodhead's news value to fade quickly, teacher shortages to dominate the headlines and an increase in the number of privately-managed state schools.

All, I can triumphantly announce, have proved correct.

Wrong on Estelle!

However, honesty forces me to admit that I also predicted that Estelle Morris, while destined for the Cabinet, was unlikely to go immediately to the top job in education. Well, we all make some mistakes.

So what does 2002 hold in store? The most intriguing question is what will emerge from the government's review of student finance.

David Blunkett left the Department for Education for the top job at the Home Office

When Tony Blair announced at the Labour Party conference that "a better way" had to be found to support students through university, he set a major test for the new education secretary.

The prime minister's announcement has prompted unrealistic expectations of a return to the days of full student grants. This is not likely to be delivered, certainly not for all students.

The aim is to help those from poorer backgrounds whom the government believes are deterred from going to university by a fear of getting into debt.

The government needs to broaden access to universities if it is to meet its target of 50% of those under 30 participating in higher education by 2010.

But universal grants would be very expensive. Even a means-tested grant would be a financial strain for the Treasury.

'Graduate tax'

That is why the government is considering raising money by requiring students to make a contribution to university costs after they have graduated.

Whether or not this is called a "graduate tax", it is going to be very hard to sell a new tax to middle-class students and parents, particularly if they themselves are unlikely to benefit if the new grants are means-tested.

Excitement over the review has also fuelled hopes of the demise of student tuition fees, which currently stand at �1,075 a year.

Student debt has proved a difficult issue for the government

It is hard to see this happening. Universities need the money and the Treasury is unlikely to make up the shortfall when it is already hard-pushed to find extra cash for the NHS.

So, sticking my neck out, I predict that 2002 will not mark the end of tuition fees. I also wonder whether, despite what the official briefings led us to believe, ministers will have the nerve to go for a graduate tax.

Although it would be embarrassing for the government to back away from the graduate tax it could save them a lot of political flak.

Many government supporters are now saying it would have been wiser just to tinker with the existing system rather than trying to re-invent it.

So, my prediction is that the government's review, launched with a bang, will end with a whimper.

Schools and cash

For schools, the year ahead is also likely to be dominated by money issues. Watch out for trouble over the performance pay scheme for teachers in England.

Despite enormous hostility from the teacher unions, the first round of performance-related pay went quite smoothly.

It seems the �2,000 salary rise was a big enough carrot to overcome teachers' opposition to the principle of performance pay.

Will there be enough money to reward teachers?

Almost 200,000 teachers passed the "threshold" and will now be seeking to make the next step up the performance-pay spine, worth �1,000 from next September.

The teacher and head teacher unions are now warning that not nearly enough money has been set aside for this year's performance pay, with only enough cash for around half of those who passed the threshold to get a further pay rise.

Teachers have warned that the scheme must reward all teachers who merit it, rather than just those schools can afford to pay extra.

There will be great bitterness if teachers are denied a pay rise because of cash limits.

The unions will also be looking for an above inflation general pay award from the teachers' review body.

Indeed, if they are to do something about teacher recruitment and retention problems, the review body itself is likely to recommend inflation-plus awards for targeted groups.

New legislation

The other focus for the New Year will be on the passage of the Education Bill through Parliament. So far this has attracted relatively little interest, apart from its provisions for more faith schools.

The measures to encourage greater private-sector involvement in the management of schools have proved relatively uncontroversial.

This is probably because Estelle Morris has taken a low-key approach to "privatisation" - allowing it but not encouraging it.

So far only three state schools, curiously all in Surrey, are being run by private companies.

Only one of these is being managed by a for-profit company, Nord Anglia plc.

Certainly, private companies are making inroads into running services for local education authorities.

But so far, the "privatisation" of schools has been evolutionary not revolutionary. There is little sign of that changing in the year ahead.

Will Estelle Morris get more money from Gordon Brown?

Budget 2002

The big test in 2002 will be the Budget.

In her first ever bout with the Chancellor of the Exchequer, can Estelle Morris win enough extra money to tackle teacher shortages and deliver university expansion?

It will not be easy. She is a novice in the public spending round while the Chancellor is an old bruiser. He also has less to give away than in previous years.

Much will depend on whether Tony Blair joins her corner. For schools and universities a great deal hangs on her success or failure.

Was this the year when Tony Blair's boast that his top three priorities were "education, education, and education" finally proved hollow?

It is ironic that the year which saw Labour re - elected, and UK education doing better than ever in a major international survey, also proved to be the year when schools slipped down the hierarchy of government priorities.

For the first time for many years, the 2001 pre - Budget Statement included no substantial boost for education spending.

At the same time, the NHS received �1bn more and there were suggestions Labour was now ready to overcome its fear of raising taxes in order to find more cash for hospitals.

Yet there has been no suggestion that the chancellor is equally willing to raise taxes to tackle the teacher shortage, to boost teachers' pay or to fund the return of student grants.

Not an issue

The signs were there during the general election campaign.

Despite concerns over teacher shortages and Labour's proposals for more specialist and faith schools, education did not take off as an issue on the hustings.

Despite the election being called by Tony Blair during a photo - call at a school, education issues never took centre stage in what proved a low-key campaign.

Yet, it was not as if the cynics could dismiss the parties' education policies as "all the same".

Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats offered very different choices on important issues such as class sizes, student fees, types of secondary school and how to solve teacher shortages.

New boss

After Labour's victory, the post-election Cabinet re-shuffle saw the "promotion" of David Blunkett to home secretary and the elevation of Estelle Morris from schools minister to education secretary.

Although sharing common political views, Blunkett and Morris are very different operators.

While Blunkett blitzed Parliament and the media with rapid fire announcements, Estelle Morris got off to a much quieter start. It was almost as if she hadn't quite realised she was now the boss.

She had some luck. The teacher shortage, which had dominated the headlines during the spring, seemed to fade away as schools returned for the autumn term.

The predicted four-day weeks for pupils failed to materialise. Perhaps the teacher unions exaggerated the problem. Next term should give us proof either way.

Changes

However, the fact that teacher shortages were off the front pages meant Estelle Morris was free to focus on the government's plans to transform secondary schools.

The idea was to "modernise" the comprehensive system or, in the blunt words of the prime minister's press secretary, to bring about "the end of the bog - standard comprehensive".

But other events were to overshadow all this.

The education White Paper - detailing plans for more involvement of the private sector as well as more specialist and faith schools - was published just days before the September 11 terrorist attacks on New York.

From that day on education struggled to achieve much media attention.

Fraught issue

Yet some of the underlying tensions in education policy remain. This was particularly true of the plan to encourage more faith - based schools.

The Church of England responded immediately with plans for 100 new secondary schools.

But this became fraught with controversy as sectarian problems erupted outside Holy Cross primary school in Belfast and as inner-city riots in Oldham and Bradford were blamed, in part, on ethnic segregation in schools.

However there was still one surprise to come and, ironically, it was a response to voter dissatisfaction during the general election.

Student funding

At the Labour Party conference in October, Tony Blair surprised many when he said "a better way" had to be found of supporting students through university.

The government's review of student finance - due to report in the New Year - was apparently the result of the hostile reception Labour politicians had received on the doorsteps during the election campaign.

The government's desire is honourable: It wants to ensure students from poorer homes are not deterred by debt from going to university.

But if they are to be given more help, it seems other students will be asked to pay more (perhaps through a form of graduate tax, although ministers seem to be going cool on this).

Where next?

The political implications of hitting middle-class students and parents are now sinking in, and the outcome of the review will be a major test of this government's nerve.

So, in many ways, it has been a year which has prepared for, rather than achieved, big changes for education.

The government has shifted from its first-term focus on nursery and primary schools towards a new interest in secondary schools and universities.

It has identified where it wants change but 2001 was not a dramatic year for education.

If ministers cannot make it a higher priority, they might find "events" - a new teacher shortage or repercussions over student grants - starting to overtake them.