What should worry parents and teachers is that Gordon Brown's top three priorities are clearly 'health, health and health'

Health and education have been two of Labour's big priorities. Indeed, on the basis of his "education, education, education" pronouncement, you might have assumed that education really was the prime minister's top priority.

But what should worry parents and teachers is that Gordon Brown's top three priorities are clearly "health, health and health".

We knew in advance of the pre-Budget Statement that, with economic growth slowing and tax revenues falling, spending would be tighter.

But now we know that schools and universities must compete with a health service which is clearly ahead in the queue for what little extra money there is going to be.

Man Utd v Ipswich Town

It looks as if the NHS is the Manchester United or Leeds United of public spending; education will have to be the Ipswich Town, seeking quality without a big cheque-book.

On current league form that is not a promising outlook.

The government will, of course, argue that education has already been put on a rising spending curve by the Comprehensive Spending Review which, back in July 2000, promised an extra �12bn over three years.

But there are some very big new demands on the money earmarked for education - demands which are crucial to the achievement of the government's key educational aims.

The most obvious, perhaps, is the financial demands of remedying the shortage of teachers.

The government recently predicted that, if things carry on as they are, schools could need to recruit as many as 30,000 extra teachers over the next five years. That will cost money.

Teachers' workload

Then there is the simmering issue of the review of teachers' workload.

The review is expected to recommend guaranteed non-contact time so teachers can do some of their lesson preparation and marking during school hours.

More non-contact time means schools will need more teachers and that, too, costs money.

We are also heading towards the season for the teachers' pay award.

The teacher shortage has raised expectations that the Teachers' Pay Review Body will recommend at least an above-inflation salary hike. That won't be cheap.

University challenge

As for the universities, we know exactly how much more money they think they need.

Universities UK (which represents all of Britain's universities) has put a price tag of �9.94bn on the additional funds needed over the next three years to meet the government's targets for expansion.

As part of the push for expansion, the government has just lifted the "cap" on individual university numbers.

As popular universities recruit more students, the bills will come in to the government.

Student grants

Another costly issue is close to boiling over - student grants.

We are now several weeks into the review of student finance triggered after Tony Blair told the Labour Party conference that "a better way" has to be found for supporting students through university.

Estelle Morris: Tough talking ahead?

Expectations have been raised of a return of student grants. That will be expensive even if, as seems likely, the grants are only available to students from poorer homes.

The government was hoping to pay for this through some form of graduate tax but the unpopularity of such a move amongst the middle-classes could be forcing a rethink.

Even if ministers do opt for a graduate tax to fund an increase in grants, there will be need for short-term funds as it takes many years for a graduate tax to start pulling in substantial sums.

There are alternative ways of raising money. One idea that clearly tempts the Treasury is to charge commercial rates of interest on student loans.

It would ease the funding of higher education but it would also be politically unpopular.

The cost of war

So economic downturn and the costs of the Afghan war appear to put the government at risk of either abandoning some of its key aims for education or having to find alternative, and cheaper, ways of achieving them.

Perhaps this explains the rather odd suggestion from the Education Secretary, Estelle Morris, that classroom assistants might be able to supervise classes on their own.

It certainly would have been a cheap way of easing the teacher shortage and achieving more non-contact time for class teachers.

It is the same spending reality which has tempted the government to float the possibility of a graduate tax or commercial student loans.

Tax rises?

There is, of course, an alternative - raise taxes to find more revenue for schools and universities. But it seems health is first in that queue too.

The pre-Budget statement is not, of course, the final word in spending.

When the Budget itself comes round next March, there may yet be more money for recruiting teachers, paying for student grants and funding university expansion.

Ms Morris has time to prove that she can be as tough in spending negotiations with the Treasury as her predecessor, David Blunkett.

If she fails, she will face some very tough decisions on what she can afford to do.