 There are three likely candidates who could succeed Rhodri Morgan (top left) |
First Minister Rhodri Morgan has long indicated he'll stand down as Welsh Labour leader around his 70th birthday, which falls on Tuesday. As he told the Labour conference that he would name the day soon, the succession issue is intriguing. The Politics Show Wales has been looking at the Assembly Members most strongly tipped for the top job. Three AMs are expected to be in the running: Edwina Hart, Carwyn Jones and Huw Lewis. The Politics Show Wales spoke to Daran Hill, managing director of public affairs agency Positif Politics, and Siobhan McClelland, external professor in health policy at the University of Glamorgan in Pontypridd, to get their views. Health Minster Edwina Hart has been a member of every assembly cabinet since the first one in 1999. She put in motion a major reorganisation of the Welsh NHS. Mrs Hart also controversially opted to save the neurosurgery department in her Swansea locality, despite an independent review suggesting its closure. Mr Hill said: "I think the biggest selling point perhaps she has is the fact that she's extremely decisive. "We've seen that in terms of the role that she's had as health minister where she's undertaken an extremely broad and rapid reorganisation of the NHS in Wales, far bigger in scope perhaps than anyone anticipated when she first took on the mantle two years ago. "I think she also has a strength in terms of her long-term commitment to the Labour movement." Ms McClelland questioned whether Mrs Hart's "huge administrative restructuring of the health service" would not create an "even bigger bloated management bureaucracy". She said: "She's made some decisions which are quite dubious, for example, the neurosurgery decision. "I think she has quite a centralising, you could even characterise it as almost a sort of Stalinist approach to the way in which she makes decisions. Measured consideration "She's the one to make them and she shouldn't be questioned. And I think not wanting to talk to the media about the most difficult decisions... is problematic because as first minister you have to talk to the media." Bridgend AM Carwyn Jones is counsel general, the assembly government's chief legal officer, at the heart of dealings with Westminster to bring forward laws made in Wales. He also oversees assembly business. Mr Jones' previous ministerial responsibilities include agriculture and the environment. Mr Hill regards Mr Jones as a very calm person who often takes the long-term view. He said: "I think we've seen that in terms of the way he's handled legislation and we also saw it... when he was environment minister, that he never seemed to be rushing into some of the big decisions but he was giving things a lot of measured consideration. "I think he's exceptionally personable as well... I think that'll play well when he's out there looking for votes." Ms McClelland argues that though some people thought Mr Jones effective during his time as environment minister, there's "very little evidence" of what he's achieved since then.  |  He has now come across as more of a thinker, more of a philosopher on the future of socialism |
She said: "Who is this man? "We haven't really seen him really showing that he has the passion for this job and the real desire to do it. He really needs a firework up the proverbial to sort of get him going really!" 'Very tricky' The AM for Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney, Huw Lewis, was deputy minister for the economy and transport before losing his post when Labour's One Wales coalition with Plaid Cymru came into being. He's chair of the assembly's expert group on child poverty. Mr Hill thinks Mr Lewis' public persona has changed in recent years. He said: "He was seen as quite an angry young man at different times. "He has now come across as more of a thinker, more of a philosopher on the future of socialism and the future of the Welsh Labour Party as much as anything else. "I think that's probably helped him to attain more gravitas as a candidate certainly." Ms McClelland thinks Mr Lewis is a "divisive" candidate because of his critical view of the One Wales coalition. She said: "This person, assuming the coalition doesn't fall apart, will be first minister. I can't see Plaid staying in the coalition if that person was Huw Lewis. "And that's going to be a problem for him. "I think his somewhat volatile personality, which he's expressed at different points, gives him some of the passion that maybe the role needs, but also makes you wonder about his ability to control and negotiate what are very tricky and difficult situations."
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