I've just discovered a new way to measure the economy.

We've already got the hemline index, and the bolly and bitter test.

Now I offer you - the filing cabinet check.

Don't worry - I haven't completely lost my marbles. These tests are all based on careful observation and deduction - though they're highly unscientific.

Hemlines

The hemline index is like the feel-good factor. The theory is - when times are good or getting better, women's skirts get shorter. When things are more miserable, they get longer.

White wine and haddock do not bode well for the national wealth

Some economists (all men, I'll bet) have traced this as far back as .. er, the 1960s, and they swear by it.

The latest reading from the indicator?

It says skirts are getting longer again. The clouds are gathering.

Champagne

The bolly and bitter test has a bit more sense to it.

When we're flush with cash, we get more expensive in our tastes. Instead of going to the pub all the time, we start going to fancy restaurants, and drink wine or champagne along with our beer.

When we're uncertain about the economy, we cut back again, and make do with pints of lager and packets of crisps.

Right now, the fancy restaurants aren't doing so well. One of my high-living colleagues in the business unit doubles up as our bolly and bitter barometer, and right now, his needle is pointing at the local chip-shop.

White wine and haddock - that doesn't bode well for the national wealth.

Pubs

But never mind swanky eateries. The worrying news is that the pubs are suffering too.

Earlier this week, the company behind All Bar One, O'Neills and Edwards said sales in its pubs have slipped over the last two months.

Last month, JD Wetherspoon said its profits would be 10 per cent lower than expected this year.

Sales are also down at the London-based pub chain Fuller, Smith & Turner - because so many traders and stockbrokers have lost their jobs.

And the company behind the Slug and Lettuce and Parisa chains has owned up to falling profits and mistakes in its accounts.

Under the bolly and bitter test, this is grim news indeed. It suggests we're cutting back so far, some of us have stopped going out altogether.

Lord of the files

So let me introduce you my new test - the filing cabinet check.

I popped into an office furniture shop after Friday morning's programme (this isn't some secret obsession - I've just decided to tame the wild and unruly paperwork in my back bedroom).

After several minutes of gentle abuse about the quality of my shares reporting, the man behind the counter got talking about his business. And it's not looking good.

The drop in second hand sales...suggests there are fewer people setting up their own small businesses.

He's been through four economic slowdowns during his 30 years in the trade - and he says this is the worst yet.

There's been a sharp fall in his sales of new office furniture - down 90 per cent in some months. And there's also been a drop in demand for second-hand office furniture.

This tells us two things. The fall-off in sales of new chairs, desks and filing cabinets suggests some of those new offices that are being built in the City right now are not being fitted out.

In other words, they're lying empty.

That hurts more than our desk-seller. It means our banks and financial firms still aren't expanding their businesses.

And it could spell trouble for the property companies that built the offices - if they don't get paying customers in there soon, they could face falling rents and a cash crunch, just as they did at the end of the 1980s.

Small businesses

The drop in second hand sales tells a different story.

It suggests there are fewer people setting up their own small businesses. Entrepreneurs are the big users of used equipment, because they have to keep their costs low when they're starting up their companies.

In the mid-1990s, the second hand furniture was being sold on as quickly as it arrived in the showroom. Now we're in a slowdown, I was the only customer there, and I was spoiled for choice.

This may sound like fanciful rubbish, but the official statistics about the economy back it up.

The fragile recovery we saw in our manufacturing industry at the start of this year seems to be going into reverse.

Profits are sliding at the big banks. Insurance companies are being battered by the falling stock markets. Confidence among other service companies is falling.

And even the mighty high street - the engine that's been keeping the economy going - is starting to suffer, with sales slipping at some of our biggest shops.

If changes to house prices frighten consumers into cutting back.. we'll have a whole new dose of misery to cope with

We shouldn't get overly alarmed by this just yet. Even though it's not growing as quickly as the Chancellor would like, our economy is still a long way from recession.

Next year, we're likely to have one of the strongest economies in the world - though the sluggishness in America, Japan and Europe that makes us look good now will be bad for us in the long run.

Housing market

The big uncertainty in all this is the housing market.

On Friday, the Halifax said house prices were still rising by 29 per cent a year. A few days before, the Nationwide said prices were going up by a quarter.

All the experts we talk to on Breakfast say that can't go on.

What they can't agree on is how quickly the housing market will cool down.

Our houses are still expected to rise in value each year - but by smaller amounts than at present. Most of the experts hope that easing off will be gentle but some warn it might be more sudden than we think.

And that's where the danger lies. Companies are already cutting back their spending and investment. If changes to house prices frighten consumers into cutting back too, we'll have a whole new dose of misery to cope with.