Health experts are confident they have tracked down the source of the Legionnaires' disease outbreak in Cumbria but fears remain that up to 130 people could be infected.

With 58 people in hospital either suspected or confirmed with the disease and one man dead, officials are urging residents of Barrow-in-Furness not to panic.

If the source is where we think it is... it doesn't pose a further threat to public health

Professor John Ashton

Although other sources are being investigated, the finger of blame is pointing to an air conditioning system at a council-run civic centre in the town called Forum 28.

The plant was closed down at 1630BST on Thursday, hours after fears of a Legionnaires' outbreak first emerged, when it was found to be expelling steam.

At a news conference in Barrow on Saturday Professor John Ashton, regional director of public health, said: "It is a fairly big outbreak, but I am fairly confident that we will have this thing sorted out in the near future."

He said that there might be an "issue" with the maintenance of Forum 28's air conditioning unit.

"Looking at the maintenance and servicing of the plant it identifies the fact that for a long time the environmental health side of things has tended not to be as strong as it should be," he said.

Disease confirmed

Public health officials fear 130 or more cases of Legionnaires' disease will be diagnosed in the outbreak.

It has been positively confirmed in 32 people so far, of whom 10 are classified as poorly and nine are in intensive care, with five giving medical staff cause for concern.

The one death so far was an 89-year-old man on Friday.

Numbers of patients remained almost constant overnight, but the 10-day incubation period for the bacterium means officials cannot say the outbreak will not be as bad as first anticipated.

Anybody who visited the Barrow area from 1 July onwards could be at risk, although Legionnaires' cannot be passed on from one person to another.

The risk to people on board ships that have passed through Barrow is among the areas being looked at by the outbreak control team.

Death toll 'will rise'

There had been no danger to people inside the council-run civic centre but instead the steam - which is thought to have carried the bug - was being expelled into the street, council leader Terry Waiting has said.

Ian Cumming anticipated many more cases

Those walking through an alleyway alongside the building towards Barrow Town Square could therefore have become infected from inhaling the steam, he added.

At Furness General Hospital extra medical supplies are being brought in to deal with the rising number of cases and as intensive care beds fill up other patients could be transferred to other hospitals in Cumbria.

Ian Cumming, chief executive of Morecambe Bay Trust, said routine operations had been cancelled because of the outbreak, but the hospital was coping.

Those confirmed with Legionnaires' disease vary in age from 47 years old to 89. A number of those affected could have now left Cumbria.

Mr Cumming said more deaths from the disease were "likely" - it is thought around 15% of cases could prove fatal.

Key disease facts

Legionnaires' is a form of pneumonia It is caused by bacteria in water systems, like cooling towers It cannot be passed by one person to another It is fatal in 5% to 15% of cases In 1998, 226 cases were reported in England and Wales. Twenty-five people died

"If the source is a leisure centre, there will be lots of people coming and going, lots of people infected.

The outbreak is the largest in the UK for a decade.

A spokesman for the Public Health Laboratory Service, a public body which offers advice to health authorities, said this was a "significant outbreak."

But he said it needed to be kept in perspective given that the largest known outbreak was in Spain last year where nearly 800 people contracted the disease.

Most of those who have so far contracted the disease in Cumbria come from Barrow and all had recently been in the centre of the town. This includes one person from Burnley who had been visiting.

A major incident team has been set up to handle the outbreak, with Morecambe Bay NHS Trust on alert to deal with more cases.

Initially, patients at the hospital had been diagnosed with pneumonia but when the number of cases rose significantly above normal levels medical staff became suspicious.

Test results received on Friday morning confirmed Legionnaires'.

Those worried they may have caught the disease are being urged to consult their local GP, call NHS Direct or to ring the hospital on 01229 491222.