By Tom Brook BBC News, New York

The emerging consensus is that four films are fairly safe bets for picking up a best picture Oscar nomination.

United 93 won the best film award

They are Martin Scorsese's Boston gangster picture The Departed, the musical Dreamgirls, the culture clash drama Babel and The Queen, in which Dame Helen Mirren gives her widely acclaimed portrayal of Queen Elizabeth II.

And if the portents are right, then this could be a very good season for The Queen.

It is thought the film will get Oscar nominations not just for best picture and Dame Helen, but also probably for director Stephen Frears and screenwriter Peter Morgan.

The New York Film Critics Circle announced its choices in December, but it handed out its awards on Sunday, giving its top best film prize to United 93.

The selection of British director Paul Greengrass' dramatisation of events on board one of the doomed aircraft on 11 September 2001 caught many by surprise.

America's film critics groups can be all over the map with their choices and are not always reliable in predicting the Oscars race.

Many take the view that the subject matter of United 93 could make Oscar voters uneasy and reluctant to embrace the film, but Greengrass disagrees.

You want anything for your movie, you want people to watch your film and nominations are a great tool for getting people into the cinema Dame Helen Mirren

"I think that people do understand that cinema is a broad church, and you have all kinds of films in the course of a year," he said.

The New York Critics Circle is in agreement with every other pre-Oscar awards group in picking Dame Helen as best actress.

If this British actress does not walk away with an Oscar trophy for her portrayal of Queen Elizabeth II awards pundits will be flabbergasted.

At Sunday's ceremony Michael Sheen, a long-shot for a best supporting actor nomination for playing opposite Dame Helen as Tony Blair, had taken on the role of her cheerleader.

He said: "I think she deserves to become Queen of the universe for her performance, and I think she's not far off it at the moment."

Dame Helen did not attend the ceremony but in an earlier interview for the BBC's Talking Movies programme she said "I'm not going to go down that road" when asked about winning an Oscar trophy.

Dame Helen Mirren is seen as a strong Oscar contender

But she added: "You want anything for your movie, you want people to watch your film and nominations are a great tool for getting people into the cinema and on that level I'd love this film to get as many awards as possible."

The New York Film Critics gave its best actor prize to Forest Whitaker, who plays the Ugandan dictator Idi Amin in the British film The Last King Of Scotland.

In the Oscars best actor race Whitaker, if nominated, will probably be up against Peter O'Toole.

The Irish screen veteran has already received considerable recognition for his portrayal of an elderly actor and his friendship with a teenage girl in the film Venus.

The New York film critics picked Martin Scorsese as best director for his film The Departed.

The revered Italian-American filmmaker has been nominated for an Oscar five times but he has never won.

'Big fans'

Both Leonardo DiCaprio and Mark Wahlberg who star in The Departed were at the ceremony.

They are both are big Scorsese fans, and Wahlberg definitely wants the director to win an Oscar trophy.

He said: "I'm surprised he doesn't have eight or nine of them at home already, but hopefully I'm in the movie that he finally wins for. I think he's certainly long overdue, he's an amazing talent."

Golden Globe nomionee Forest Whitaker took the best actor prize

Scorsese, if shortlisted, will face strong competition in the Oscars best director category.

Clint Eastwood is expected to get nominated for Letters From Iwo Jima, as is Frears for The Queen.

The comedy Little Miss Sunshine and Babel could also bring recognition for their directors, and there is a chance that one of the five best director slots could go to United 93's Greengrass.

Once again it looks like it will be a good Oscars for the British, at least in terms of nominations.

As well as Dame Helen, there is a strong chance that Dame Judi Dench and Kate Winslet will also be shortlisted for a best actress Oscar.

The Oscars may still be seven weeks away, but already it has become a huge and very intense guessing game.

Cate Blanchett, a possible best supporting actress nominee, does not agree with the perception that the Oscars has been reduced to a horse-race.

"I don't think that's what I hold onto and I think most actors don't either," she said.

True, the Academy Awards do purport to honour excellence, but each year it becomes more of a grand American circus with stars, directors, publicists, studio executives and fans willingly whipping themselves into a frenzy.

The end result is a fascinating spectacle enabling Hollywood to boost its fortunes and its profile around the world.