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Last Updated: Thursday, 27 May, 2004, 06:20 GMT 07:20 UK
Retail woes hit Japan's recovery
Yen banknotes in wallet
Japanese shoppers have yet to open their wallets
A surprise dip in retail sales has raised questions about the strength of the Japanese economic recovery.

Official figures show that the retail sector's takings fell by 1% on the month in April, and by 0.8% compared with the same period last year.

The data wrong-footed forecasters, who had predicted a year-on-year decline of just 0.2%.

The figures contradicted recent signs that strong export sales were feeding through to increased consumer demand.

Sales tax effect

"As a trend, most consumption-related data were fairly strong in January-March, but the numbers we've seen lately have not been as good," said Azusa Kato, economist at BNP Paribas.

"Perhaps consumption is not as strong as everyone has begun to think."

A pick-up in consumer spending is seen as vital to consolidating Japan's tentative recovery, which follows a ten-year period of stagnation punctuated by outright recession.

While exports and industrial activity have picked up sharply in recent months, the latest figures suggest that consumers remain unconvinced that a sustained recovery is on the cards.

One factor holding back consumer spending in Japan is deflation, where falling prices lead shoppers to defer major purchases.

Recent data showed that deflationary pressures are still weighing on the economy, despite the central bank's efforts to stimulate demand by holding interest rates effectively at zero.

Some analysts speculated that April's drop in activity at the tills could reflect new regulations forcing retailers to include a 5% sales tax on all displayed prices.


SEE ALSO:
Japan 'set for gradual recovery'
20 May 04  |  Business
Optimism at 7-year high in Japan
01 Apr 04  |  Business
Optimism grows within Japan Inc
04 Mar 04  |  Business
Weak yen 'unfair,' says GM boss
02 Mar 04  |  Business
IMF sees faster growth for Japan
25 Feb 04  |  Business
Export-led growth spurt for Japan
18 Feb 04  |  Business


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