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Last Updated: Thursday, 20 May, 2004, 06:08 GMT 07:08 UK
Japan 'set for gradual recovery'
Japanese shoppers
Japanese consumers are key to a continuing recovery
The Japanese central bank has issued a cautiously upbeat assessment of the economy, reinforcing hopes of a sustained recovery.

The Bank of Japan said in its monthly economic health check that a jump in exports had lifted business investment, while domestic demand had also firmed.

"Japan's economy is expected to gain further momentum gradually," it said.

The Bank added that it would keep short-term interest rates effectively at zero, as widely expected.

The report comes days after official data showed that the economy grew at an annual rate of 5.6% during the first three months of the year.

The figures, which comfortably outstripped analysts' forecasts, marked Japan's eighth consecutive quarter of growth.

Tighter money

Mounting evidence of a recovery has triggered speculation that the Bank of Japan, which has adopted an ultra-loose monetary policy in an effort to kick-start the economy, may tighten its stance sooner than expected.

Its officials have previously signalled that rates will not rise until Japan's chronic deflation - where falling prices act as a brake on consumer spending - is over.

But the Bank suggested on Thursday that while the soaring cost of oil and other commodities had helped counteract deflation, there is as yet little sign of a sustained increase in prices.

"The year-on-year rate of change in consumer prices, excluding fresh food, has been close to zero, while temporary factors have exerted upward pressure on prices," it said.

Figures out on Tuesday showed that the broadest measure of Japanese prices fell by 2.6% in the first quarter.

Some analysts believe the Bank may in fact loosen monetary policy further in the months ahead if higher oil prices or an abrupt slowdown in China start to weigh on global growth.

"I expect the Bank of Japan to ease further if we have a sudden rise in the yen, a big slowdown in China, or big swings in domestic stock or bond markets," said Yasuo Goto at Mitsubishi Research Institute.


SEE ALSO:
Bad debts 'damage Japanese bank'
19 May 04  |  Business
Japan's growth beats estimates
18 May 04  |  Business
Nikkei hit by global growth fears
10 May 04  |  Business
Japan's import spurt backs growth
21 Apr 04  |  Business
Optimism at 7-year high in Japan
01 Apr 04  |  Business
IMF sees faster growth for Japan
25 Feb 04  |  Business


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