Zimbabwe's tobacco harvest is expected to halve next year due to the difficulties facing farmers.

We're going to miss the boat on a lot of potential if we can't get the seedlings out there

Chris Molam, Tobacco Association

Farm disruptions caused by the land seizures have already reduced this year's tobacco crop to about 162 million kg, from 202 million kg last year.

Now that figure is expected to halve again, with many farmers unable to transplant their seedlings during the critical pre-rain season between 15 October and 15 November.

"We're falling behind," Chris Molam, chief executive of the Zimbabwe Tobacco Association told BBC News Online.

"Farmers haven't been able to get onto the land. November is looming and we really need to get the crop out."

Economists say the reduction of tobacco output could be devastating to the country's ailing economy.

Restrained

"Tobacco has been earning over 30% of our foreign exchange, and it is the largest employer of labour, so this is going to have quite a dramatic impact," Mr Molam explained.

Dwindling tobacco harvest

2000 - 237m kg 2001 - 202m kg 2002 - 162m kg 2003 forecast - 70-80m kg

"It will make a very scarce foreign currency situation pretty dire, especially as we need to import food and fuel."

Farmers are facing other restraints as well as the land reform programme.

Banks are reluctant to lend to farmers due to the increased risks, fertilizer is in short supply and the overall cost of production has increased by 150% over the past year.

Hoping for change

The Zimbabwe Tobacco Association made a presentation about the outlook to the Parliamentary committee on agriculture earlier this month.

The association is now hoping the government will make some changes to help the farmers before the country's Budget is announced on 14 November.

"We're going to miss the boat on a lot of potential if we can't get the seedlings out there," Mr Molam said.

Zimbabwe has been the world's second largest tobacco exporter after Brazil.

But its current plight is likely to see it fall behind China and the US.