by Steve Schifferes BBC News Online business reporter

There may not be a sprig of holly in sight, but for Britain's toy retailers, the Christmas rush is already on.

Top 10 Christmas toys

Baby Annabel - Zapf Harry Potter range - Lego Beyblades - Hasbro Bratz - Bandai Popcorn Maker - Character Options Spiderman Flip and Trap - Vivid Imaginations Leappad - Disney Fimbles - Mattel Rapunzel Barbie - Mattel Micropets - Tomy

Getting the right toys to the right shops at the right time is a matter of deadly seriousness to retailers, and so the word on the season's hot sellers is out by the end of summer.

The British Association of Toy Retailers has just produced its list of the top 10 likely sellers this Christmas - the froth on the top of an �850m, 180 million-toy seasonal bonanza.

And they appear to be playing safe this year, with half of the top 10 toys new versions of previous hits.

These include a new version of Barbie by Mattel and a new Harry Potter building set from Lego, set to capture the tie-in market for the new Harry Potter film - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets - which is out in November.

Micropets

There are three genuinely new ideas.

The biggest fad looks like being Tomy's Micropets.

Micropets: Small, cute, expensive and soon to be ubiquitous

These 10 adorable - but tiny - talking pets can sit on your desktop at work as well as delight your six-year old, and they talk back to you.

Tomy says they are "flying off the shelves."

It's all part of a plan by the Japanese company to reposition itself in the older age group, a faster-growing market than its traditional pre-school market.

They expect to sell 50 million this year at �9.99 each - and you can collect all ten for less than �100.

Also expected to be popular is a new street-wise doll named Bratz, complete with torn jeans and attitude.

And the BBC is getting in the act as well, with a marketing deal with Mattel to launch its new under-five Fimble characters on the Christmas market.

Old favourites

Also returning is a new Spiderman toy from the British company that had a hit with Thunderbirds last year.

Bratz: Dolls with attitude

But depressed conditions in the worldwide toy market mean that manufacturers have not spent as much on development as before, according to Val Stedham, chair of the British Association of Toy Retailers.

She says that parents are now looking for value, and they will be reluctant to buy fad toys, preferring to look to value and the long-term staying power of such toys as Lego.

The UK toy industry is hoping for a recovery after the weak Christmas they had last year, in the shadow of September 11 - and it believes that parents will skimp less on toys than other items.

But so far indications are not postiive, with summer toy sales poorer than expected. However, the retail toy market is now dominated by the big shops, including Argos, Woolworths and Toys R Us, with independent shops only having 20% of the market.

Independents survive

Yet the independent retailer can provide a better service and a wider range of toys, according to Mrs Stedham, who owns the Moons Toy Shop in Newmarket, Suffolk.

Some toy trends never change

She says she stocks 8,000 toys, compared with 400 held by Argos.

But she admits her margins have been squeezed by the big retailers.

And no doubt this Christmas their massive advertising campaigns - now increasingly linked to movie, video and TV tie-ins - will ensure a big success for many of these top-10 toys.

Have a happy Christmas - if you can.