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Thursday, 5 September, 2002, 07:56 GMT 08:56 UK
Summit boosts South Africa's car market
Toyota
Toyota topped the sales league table in August
A burst of new car sales in South Africa could lead to a further rise in the country's interest rates.

Economists believe South Africa's central bank could put up rates for the fourth time this year when it meets next week.

Their view was bolstered by new car sales figures for August which showed robust consumer demand despite price rises.

Sales of new cars in August rose to 30,525, up from 29,777 in the same month last year, figures from the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (Naamsa) showed.

It pointed to a "relatively resilient" demand and extra sales to car rental firms ahead of the World Development Summit which recently took place in Johannesburg.

Taking the temperature

Rental firms beefed up their fleets to make sure they were able to ferry the 50,000 or so delegates, lobbyists and journalists around town.

Monthly car sales in August actually fell compared to July, but this was mainly because the World Summit provided an even bigger boost to car sales earlier in the summer.

Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni
Bank governor Tito Mboweni has said rates may go higher

  • The bank is likely to view the vehicle sales figures as the most up-to-date barometer of consumer demand when it starts its two-day rate-setting meeting on 11 September, said SG Economic Research.

    Car prices in South Africa have risen about 18% since the start of this year, partly because the declining rand has pushed up the price of imports.

    Rising interest rates have also increased the cost of loans for car purchases by 3%.

    But shoppers seem undaunted by the rising costs and are willing to borrow to cover them.


    This suggests that the ability of consumers to take on additional credit is not sufficiently under control

    SG Economic Research

    Official consumer credit figures for July showed an expansion of between 14% and 15% compared to July last year.

    "From a monetary management point of view this suggests that the ability of consumers to take on additional credit is not sufficiently under control," said SG Economic Research.

    Growth picks up

    South Africa's economy grew 3.1% in April, May and June, compared to 2.2% during the first three months of the year.

    The South African Reserve Bank's last rate rise in June sparked debate among economists as to whether it was paying too much attention to inflation at the expense of economic growth.

    The Bank has raised interest rates to support the rand.

    But the currency's weakness has stimulated growth by attracting investment and cheapening exports, even though imports have become more costly.

    The result has been an increase in disposable income among middle class South Africans "which has exceeded the constricting effect of three interest-rate rises", said SG Economics.

  • See also:

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