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EDITIONS
 Wednesday, 17 April, 2002, 11:35 GMT 12:35 UK
Bookies struggle for Budget trade
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It's official - Gordon Brown's controls are so draconian he is squeezing the lifeblood from British industry.

Or at least undermining a sector trying to earn a betting penny from the Budget.

Trade on the Budget is 0.0001% of that we take at a general election

Paul Austin, IG Index
The Iron Chancellor's oratorial prudence, while sparing parliamentary backsides, has offered little comfort to gaming firms which offer bets based around the length of the Budget speech.

"The trouble is he is pretty constant," said Paul Austin at IG Index, which sees Mr Brown's address lasting around 55-58 minutes.

"People see it is unlikely he will be more than 10 minutes away from that, so they feel it is not worth a bet."

William Gladstone
William Gladstone: Record breaker

IG Index has already been prompted by Mr Brown's disciplined media strategy, which sees Budget proposals leaked months ahead in an effort to gauge public opinion, to stop offering odds on individual measures such as rates of income tax, or levels of alcohol duty.

"It is not like 10 years ago when lobby correspondents were not even briefed until after the event," Mr Austin said.

The firm, which has been taking Budget bets for more than 20 years, expects to take perhaps 12 on this year's event.

"Trade on the Budget is 0.0001% of that we take at a general election. There is far more interest then in betting on the size of the winning majority."

Old times

Indeed, Mr Brown's austerity threatens to undermine the bookmaking, and political, jamboree which surrounds the annual airing of the red briefcase.

Leo Abse, who retired as a Labour MP in 1987
Leo Abse; Budget enthusiast

David Bewik, spokesman for Cantor Index recalls the days when "flamboyant" backbenchers hung on every Budget word.

"There were the likes of Sir Gerald Nabarro and Leo Abse, always immaculately turned out, who used to queue up for pride of place in the Commons.

"It was far more of an event then.

"And when you had the FTSE at 156, Lloyds shares worth less than their nominal price, Denis Healey in 1973 facing the IMF crisis, people were really concerned about what would be announced."

Betting on the Budget began in the 1950s, when foreign exchange dealers opened wagers with stockbrokers, Mr Bewik said.

The phenomenon has, until Mr Brown's tenure, developed to be a moderate moneyspinner for betting firms.

Mr Austin said: "Even in the time of recent Conservative chancellors, you could see speeches differing markedly in length from year to year."

(None of them, though, approached the record four-and-three-quarter hour discourse emitted by William Gladstone in the 1850s.)

Lateral thinking

Still, Mr Brown at least proved the bookies' friend in last year's Budget, when betting duty was scrapped in favour of revisions to corporation tax.

Kenneth Clarke smoking a cigar
Kenneth Clarke: Smokers' thirst

And the resulting bookies' boom, coupled with the coming of fresh-thinking online gaming firms, has fostered an imaginative approach to Budget flutters.

Companies have long offered bets on the number of intra-speech sips of water a chancellor takes.

Some firms now are offering bets on the number of times the chancellor mentions words such as "health", "education" and, of course, "prudence".

Or an "Andrex" bet on the number of sheets of paper his address fills.

And Sportingodds.com is offering a "Flash Gordon" flutter on the level of the chancellor's undress.

'Surprise' windfalls?

Will such offerings prove lucrative?

Much may rely on levels of integrity among those close to the chancellor.

Who is better placed to win a "prudence" wordcount bet than a Treasury speechwriter struggling to buy a home amid London's property boom?

Who could better judge the mechanics of Mr Brown's trousers than his tailor?

As for the water drinking punt, that looks set to be a further casualty of Mr Brown's iron disposition.

"The last chancellor, Ken Clarke, was a smoker and used to take four or five sips," Mr Bewik said.

"The trouble with Gordon Brown is he is not a smoker, so he does not take any."


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BUDGET DIARIES

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See also:

16 Apr 02 | Business
17 Apr 02 | Education
15 Apr 02 | Politics
26 Mar 02 | Business
07 Mar 02 | Business
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