Writing off the Germans

by Martin Fookes, BBC World Service Sport

Write off the Germans at your peril, goes the football cliché, but I've always ignored it.

I wrote them off in Japan and South Korea, after they lost 5-1 to England in qualifying. They went on to reach the final of the 2002 World Cup, but only because they had an unbelievably easy passage through the draw (Paraguay, USA, South Korea).

I also wrote them off at Euro 2004 and felt the warm glow of self-righteousness when they lost to the Czech Republic and failed to reach the quarter-finals. See? A fading force.

So, naturally, I wrote them off for the 2006 World Cup. They had a rookie coach, Juergen Klinsmann, who seemed to think he could commute across the Atlantic to look after the team. Okay, they did reach the semi-finals, but that was down to home advantage. The football was nothing special, even if their support was.

In 2008, I looked at the German squad for the Euros and thought, nah, there's nothing here for anyone to worry about. They're not at home now.

I wrote them off. They reached the final.

I guess most people would have learned by this point. But as soon as I heard Michael Ballack wasn't playing in Africa's first World Cup, I had no hesitation. I wrote the Germans off. Of course I did. They've only got one player of quality – and he won't be there!

So it was that I sat in the magnificent Moses Mabhida stadium in Durban on Sunday, reflecting on my foolishness, my crass stupidity, as the Germans played sublime football against Australia. They didn't just win 4-0. They tortured their opponents.

Miroslav Klose? I thought he was washed up. Even Bayern Munich don't play him! Lucas Podolski? He's gone backwards – to Cologne - where he came from. How can they play like this for Germany?

Thomas Mueller looks a proper player in midfield – tall, elegant, unflappable and a bit arrogant. Touch of the old Germany there. And where did they find this Mesut Oezil? He's a little creative genius. He's everywhere. He's making Australia look what they are – a bunch of old Socceroos.

I check my cut-out-and-keep World Cup wall-chart. If England finish second in group C (a possibility since Fabio's lot couldn't beat the USA), they'll be playing Germany in the next round. Because Germany are going to win group D by some distance.

I break into a cold sweat.

I won't write them off.

Not yet.