Venue: Murrayfield Date: Saturday, 12 February Kick-off: 1700 GMT
Coverage: Watch live on BBC One from 1635, and on the Red Button and online; listen on BBC Radio 5 live; text commentary online and on mobiles

Coaches Warren Gatland and Andy Robinson (bottom row, left and right) will look to their respective fly-halves and outside centres to provide penetration

By Jeremy Guscott Former England and Lions centre

Wales must have had a game plan last Friday against England, but for a number of reasons they failed to execute it. I can understand part of the reason, but I can't understand the other part.

If you look at the possession in the first half, England had 60% so that shows they had some dominance there. But at the same time, when Wales had the ball they either didn't bring Jamie Roberts or Jonathan Davies into play, or on the occasions they did have space, they kicked the ball away.

It is very clear they were lacking in confidence, and the people beside the ball-carrier were pointing to 'kick it'. After a lot of defeats, players feel more comfortable without the ball than with it.

When James Hook replaced Stephen Jones at 10 they did try to push things and make the most of what they had because they needed to, but it didn't really come off.

My concern - and it would be the same for head coach Warren Gatland and the backs coach Rob Howley - is that Hook has not played at 10 regularly this season.

No matter how talented you are, it is an intense environment to be thrown into. And make no mistake, he has been thrown in, and it is a gamble. Whether Gatland had to make it, I am not sure, but that is what he has gone with.

To my mind, Jones took a bigger knock than people thought right at the start of the England game, and he was pretty anonymous after that, even though he was the pivot.

Most of Wales' play should go through him and Mike Phillips - who is lucky to still be there after his performance - but if your number nine and 10 are not playing well and your 12 and 13 are not in the game, then your back three become redundant.

I would say it is Jamie Roberts's fault that he barely touched the ball against England, which is pretty much what Gatland is suggesting. He only had to say 'For goodness sake give me the ball'. He is supposed to be one of the best backs in the country. It shows his naivety.

Essentially, Wales can't go wrong with ball off the top from the middle or the back of the line-out. It can then go either via Hook to Roberts, or straight to him from Phillips.

Even if you know Roberts is coming and can prepare yourself, you don't want to be the first person there, believe me. When you have a 6ft 4in, 17 stone-plus guy running as quickly as he does, you are going to know he has arrived.

After that, Hook can decide whether to go the same way or double back and feed players like Bradley Davies, Dan Lydiate and Sam Warburton, who did most of the carrying against England. Wales also need Alun Wyn Jones to get in on the act that Bradley Davies seems to be fulfilling on his own from the second row.

Just as Mike Tindall's outside shoulder should have been targeted more against England, this week it will be Scotland fly-half Dan Parks.

No-one's going to know him better than his Cardiff Blues team-mate Roberts, and Parks is going to get a lot of traffic in his channel. Roberts should be able to create holes and Wales should exploit that.

The inclusion of Lee Byrne at full-back should also stop the crabbing across the field that we saw against England. At his very best two years ago he cut the line brilliantly to add another dimension to the Welsh attack. If he can come close to playing like that, I think he should find himself getting a lot of space.

I thought Scotland played very well considering they were up against a very sprightly French side who were on fire at times and very much up for it.

I liked the impact of Joe Ansbro at centre and Nick de Luca was OK inside him although he could have released the ball a bit more. Hugo Southwell was OK at full-back, although Nikki Walker definitely kicked one ball away. He needs to be on his game because he knows Sean Lamont is chomping at the bit waiting to get on.

I don't expect Scotland to change one bit, other than one crucial aspect - and that is not to give the ball away so easily. Three of France's four tries were from turnover ball, which frustrated Andy Robinson no end.

I would expect them to execute things better and be a bit more ruthless in their attack.

Their defence was good too and someone who was very prominent was lock Richie Gray, who proved me wrong with an outstanding performance.

Knowing how Andy Robinson is pushing these boys, he will want them to up the intensity because there is no doubt Wales are incredibly vulnerable.

When you haven't been winning and you go behind, everything drops off, you can't help it. No-one is that mentally hard.

If I was Scotland, I would be a be a bit more mentally astute and just play rugby in the Welsh half. Parks is good at putting those diagonal kicks in and putting pressure on the likes of Byrne, who hasn't had a lot of match time. They need to pressurise Wales and force them to play rugby out of their own half.

Hook is not used to playing at 10 tactically so I think Wales might go completely doo-lally and run it from everywhere. I would certainly consider those tactics if I was Scotland, though Andy Robinson might want to move on from just trying to restrict the opposition and continue to develop their own game.

If so, we could be in for one incredible game of rugby if both sides enter into it in that spirit.

I am going to back Scotland to win. Wales are very vulnerable and if Scotland can get ahead, I think they will stay ahead.

Then again if Wales win, they could really kick on from that because it is what they have been waiting for.

At some stage it will happen - I just don't think it will be at Murrayfield.

Jeremy Guscott was talking to BBC Sport's Bryn Palmer

You can follow Jerry on Twitter at http://twitter.com/JeremyGuscott

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