 Armstrong will be gunning to be in yellow again |
Lance Armstrong has dominated the Tour in the last four years, leading to some rebranding it the Tour de Lance. But as the Texan bids for a fifth consecutive win, could the seemingly invincible US Postal rider slip up or is win number five already in the bag?
Easier than ever for Lance
There will be twists and turns aplenty over the course of the three weeks of the centenary Tour de France, but there is one inescapable truth.
Come the conclusion on the Champs Elysees on Sunday 27 July, Lance Armstrong will be crowned in the maillot jaune for a fifth successive year.
The American is in a league of his own.
Prior to the start of the Tour, the press and public alike pinpoint potential rivals in the peloton, but they never live up to the billing.
Armstrong's whole season is built around the race and his meticulous management is the science of his cycling.
 | Each year his peers in the peloton look for a weakness - there is none  |
He knows the key stages inside out - nothing is left to chance. He has a comprehensive knowledge of the course, and most importantly knows the perfect place to make up time and where to attack.
Armstrong is a past master at this, taking delight in embarrassing his rivals on the road. His attacks are the art that complement the science.
You can see it now. A look over the shoulder on an early mountain stage, and be it Joseba Beloki, Jan Ullrich or any of his opponents who show disdain enough to threaten his authority, a burst of speed and he will be away.
To add to his armoury, Armstrong knows that one of his biggest rivals in the field, Roberto Heras, is in his team.
Each year Armstrong's peers in the peloton and the French media look for a weakness, and every time they are disappointed. There is none.
This year will be no different, although in the early stages of the season his major rivals must have thought the tide was turning.
Off the bike Armstrong's personal life was in disarray, and in the saddle he was off the pace in the Liege-Bastogne-Liege.
Fast-forward six weeks and he's working through his marriage difficulties and enjoyed the perfect build-up to the Tour with a win in the Dauphine Libere.
Another few weeks and it is a sure-fire bet that not only will the 32-year-old be taking the plaudits in Paris, wife Kristin will be by his side with kids in tow and the sun will be shining.
Tour number five is in the bag before the race has started.
Armstrong's time is up
 Armstrong could be in line for a pensive three weeks |
Seeing is believing, but Lance Armstrong's dominance of the Tour de France will come to an end throughout July. Up until now the race has been all about him over the last four seasons but the evidence suggests his immovable crown is beginning to slip off his head.
Forget about how he dominated the Dauphine Libere - many of his leading rivals, including Joseba Beloki and Jan Ullrich were not even there.
The list of riders lining up against him is stronger than ever. A resurgent Ullrich looks in scintillating form, while Beloki and his ONCE team-mates are approaching their peak.
Beloki has reduced his number of racing days compared to 2002 in a bid to be fully refreshed for the Tour.
And his younger array of ONCE colleagues, among them Jose Azevedo, Isidro Nozal and Jorg Jaksche, got closer to causing the Armstrong armour to buckle.
If they can streamline their efforts, which team boss Manolo Saiz is determined to do, a tougher Tour is on the cards for Armstrong.
 | The Tour de Lance is a thing of the past  |
The Texan's build-up to the Tour, the Dauphine Libere excepted, has been some way off his efforts of 12 months ago.
Little of note has been achieved by the US Postal leader and, when he attempted to clinch victory in the Liege-Bastogne-Liege, he came unstuck and was outfoxed by lesser opponents.
The argument that Armstrong may fall foul to complacency is unlikely to wash but his run has got to end at some point and when better than a centenary year.
In press conferences he insists he is not thinking about a record-equalling fifth, let alone sixth, win in Paris.
But his record chasing could yet prove his downfall.
Added to that, Armstrong has struggled with his life off the bike this year and is battling to save his marriage.
All that allied together means the Tour de Lance is a thing of the past.