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Pundits' predictions

Predicting a winner for the Open championship is a precarious business but the absence of Tiger Woods from this year's event has really left the race for the Claret Jug wide open.

The Open champion gets to lift the claret jug
Every player in the field will be dreaming of lifting this on Sunday

As the start of golf's showpiece draws ever closer, the question on everyone's lips is who will emerge victorious at Royal Birkdale on Sunday evening.

With Woods recuperating from knee surgery and last year's champion Padraig Harrington struggling with a wrist injury, world number seven Sergio Garcia has been installed as the bookmakers' favourite with Ernie Els not far behind.

But the tournament also has a history of producing surprise winners, with the relatively unheralded Todd Hamilton, Ben Curtis and Ian Baker-Finch all having their names engraved on the famous trophy.

So we have asked the great and good of the world's assembled media for their expert opinions on who will be writing their name into golfing history this year.


Ken Brown
BBC golf commentator

Winner: Sergio Garcia/Lee Westwood. These two players are coming into the Open full of confidence and are both playing well. They are great strikers of the ball and you've got to hit the ball well here. You are not going to win the Open Championship if you aren't hitting it straight and are slapping it all over the place.

Phil Mickelson
Mickelson is the highest-ranked layer in the tournament
Going close: Phil Mickelson. He's the second best player in the world so without Tiger Woods he is the best out there and he will really enjoy Royal Birkdale. Some Open courses don't suit American players that much, but Mickelson will like its flatter and lusher fairways and the way they have rebunkered the greens. It's become a bit more of a high-ball flighted game and should suit him.

Lively outsider: Graeme McDowell. He has been in quite good form and enjoys links golf having been brought up at Royal Portrush and he holds the course record at St Andrews. If the course is fast, running and fiery it will be in his favour.


Iain Carter
BBC Radio 5 Live golf correspondent

Winner: Sergio Garcia. The best shotmaker in the game - he who drives best will prosper at Birkdale and there's no one better in this department.

Going close: Lee Westwood. Westwood is in the form of his life and has a real chance of winning.

Lively outsider: Oliver Wilson. He is another consistent performer who will benefit from the experience of contending for a while at the US Open as he did a couple of weeks ago.


David Facey
The Sun

Winner: Angel Cabrera. As US Open champion, Cabrera looked like a player with a millstone round his neck. Since it has gone, he has started playing the sort of golf that won him that title last year.

Spain's Sergio Garcia
Garcia wants to lose his reputation as the best player without a major
Going close: Sergio Garcia/Lee Westwood. In Garcia, there is no better wind player in the world. Westwood is another super wind player and this year he has been Mr Consistent. He seems a ready-made Open champion and has seen what Tiger Woods does in being able to post a 69 when not on top of his game.

Lively outsider: Hunter Mahan. He is on the fringe of the Ryder Cup team and there is always some American that always comes close here. He came under the radar in 2007 and closed with a 69 and a 65 to move into contention.


Steve Dimeglio
USA Today

Winner: Sergio Garcia. The best ball-striker in the world, he's going to break through at some point and I think it will be here.

Going close: Lee Westwood. He's just in form, he showed that at the US Open. He's playing well and is confident.

Lively outsider: Sean O'Hair. I just keep going back to him for some reason, I don't know why.


Hazel Irvine
BBC golf presenter

Winner: Sergio Garcia. I think it is his time. His victory at Sawgrass at the Players' Championship was massive for him. It looks like he has his putting back again and has a different attitude this year, almost "what will be, will be". He is great fun and very ambitious and I'd love to see him do it.

Jim Furyk
Furyk has not attracted much attention in the build-up at Birkdale
Going close: Jim Furyk. He's on form and the last time the Open was played at Birkdale he finished fourth. I'm a great believer that there are horses for courses and to my uninitiated eye it seems like there's a natural connection that if you've done well at a course previously, you play well there again.

Lively outsider: Graeme McDowell. I feel like he is right on the verge of something really big. Not sure what it is, it might be the Ryder Cup, but to me he is right on the cusp of something and that excites me about his chances.


Peter Alliss
BBC golf commentator

Winner: Angel Cabrera. He drives the ball miles and very straight. Sound putter and has won the US Open so knows what it takes.

Going close: Vijay Singh. I'd be surprised if Vijay didn't play well at Birkdale.

Lively outsider: Ross Fisher. I have been so impressed with Ross Fisher and the way he played to win the European Open recently. He is very mature, full of confidence and looks calm.


John Hopkins
The Times

Winner: Sergio Garcia. He is in-form, his putting has improved and he has a good Open record.

606: DEBATE
keiron5756

Going close: Stewart Cink/Justin Rose. Cink has been playing the Open since 1998 and is just a really good player. He won in America in June, his last event before the Open, and is underestimated. Rose does unexpected things and you have to do that on a course like this. If you can putt well, which he normally does, as well as having a sublime short game - then you have a chance.

Lively outsider: Rod Pampling. I go for him because five-time Open winner Peter Thomson believes he is one to watch. If Thomson thinks Pampling is one to look out for on a course where he has done so well, then that is good enough for me.


Len Shapiro
Washington Post

Winner: Sergio Garcia. He is due a win here. He is playing well and has great success in this event. His short game has improved and he has a lot more confidence in his putting. As well as that, nobody hits the ball better tee to green than Sergio - even a certain Tiger Woods.

Anthony Kim
Kim is rated as one of the brightest prospects in the sport
Going close: Anthony Kim. He has won two of his last five starts and is set to be the next great American golfer. Kim has never contended in a major but maybe this could be the time he does.

Lively outsider: Justin Leonard. His game is nearly back to where it was 10 years ago when he was at his peak and in June he won on the PGA Tour in Memphis. He has all the shots and he loves links golf. He won the Open in 1997 so he knows what to do in this tournament.


Damon Hack
Sports Illustrated

Winner: Sergio Garcia. Last year will have helped him. When he looks back the confidence he gained will serve him well this week when he is contention. Winning the Players Championship will have bolstered his confidence and it just seems like when good players go close in majors they seem to break through soon after. Garcia is definitely in that category.

Geoff Ogilvy
Ogilvy won the US Open back in 2006
Going close: Geoff Ogilvy. Despite winning the US Open in 2006, he favours the Open more than any other major. Grew up watching Greg Norman win two Opens and has a wonderful imagination and appreciation of links golf. I'd be surprised if he didn't contend.

Lively outsider: Anthony Kim. He's just cocky enough to work his way into the headlines this week. Just needs to match a bold game to his bold belt buckles. There's no player hotter than Kim on tour right now.


Ryan Herrington
Golf World magazine

Winner: Sergio Garcia. His game is running into shape and last year's loss put some perspective into him.

Going close: Phil Mickelson. He's finally figured out how to play links courses and he knows there's an opportunity this week without Tiger Woods.

Lively outsider: Anthony Kim. His game is solid and I think being new to all this and being a bit na�ve and maybe not knowing there's supposed to be pressure might help him.


Andrew Cotter
BBC golf commentator

Winner: Sergio Garcia. His record is just absolutely fantastic, he hasn't been out of the top five in the last five years and of course he lost in a play-off to Harrington last year. His form has been great. He won the Players' Championship when Tiger wasn't there so maybe his absence is a good omen. He loves links golf but he has to keep his putting going.

England's Lee Westwood
Westwood is in the form of his life going into the tournament
Going close: Lee Westwood. He has barely been out of the top 10 of tournaments. Again with him it comes down to his putting.

From tee to green he is as good as anybody. The Open Championship hasn't been kind to him but at Troon in 2003 he finished fourth so he can do it. With his form he has to be there or thereabouts.


Mark Lamport-Stokes
Reuters

Winner: Sergio Garcia. He's got a tremendous record in the last five Opens, he's a natural links player and has a lot to prove after last year.

Going close: Ernie Els. Els really needs to take advantage of the no-Woods factor in the major he feels most comfortable with.

Lively outsider: Anthony Kim. He hits the ball low, is an exciting talent, and picks people's brains to learn.


Kenji Oishi
Nikkan Sports News

Winner: Sergio Garcia. He's exciting and last year will have inspired him to do better. He will also be fired up to match the Spanish football team and Rafael Nadal.

Ryugi Imada
Imada has caught the eye with his performances on the PGA Tour
Going close: Ryuji Imada. He's a special figure in Japan and is the first Japanese player to win on the US Tour when he clinched the AT&T. He's also had two second places this year.

Lively outsider: Ian Poulter/Hideto Tanihara. Poulter is a steady player and is popular in Japan. He's not a big hitter but could do well here. Tanihara was fifth in 2006 and got married last week.


Wayne Grady
BBC golf commentator

Winner: Lee Westwood. The US Open did him a world of good. He is playing some fantastic golf and it's about time an Englishman won.

Going close: Angel Cabrera. Is due a return to form after his hangover from winning last year's US Open and should come back from that.

Lively outsider: Aaron Baddeley. He is a good low-ball hitter and a great putter. And don't forget, Australians have won at Birkdale before.


Lewine Mair
The Daily Telegraph

Winner: Sergio Garcia. I like his bounce and his ability to get the crowd going. They absolutely love him.

Going close: Ernie Els. Ernie is just a thoroughly good player and he knows Opens, having won in 2002.

Lively outsider: Oliver Wilson. He is an up and coming star and he is somebody who will win one day.


Ken Fidlin
Toronto Sun

Winner: Jim Furyk. He hits the ball straight and is a fantastic putter as well as being one of those battle-hardened pros. Furyk is a player with a lot of courage to make all the shots this week that he will need in this wind.

Going close: Sergio Garcia. He has set himself up to take that extra step this year. The Players Championship was a big win and you cannot discount the last two Opens. He lost last year in a play-off but arguably he should have won.

Lively outsider: Anthony Kim. There is a lot of buzz about him in the United States although I am not sure he is ready to win this at his first attempt. However, he has a lot of character and he is a person that even the other players tend to mention.

(Reporting by BBC Sport's Rob Hodgetts & Mark Orlovac)


see also
Birkdale's Open history
14 Jul 08 |  Golf
Filling Tiger's shoes
15 Jul 08 |  Golf
Battle royal at Birkdale
11 Jul 08 |  Golf
Rose's Birkdale return
15 Jul 08 |  Golf


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