FA Cup semi-finals have a history of springing the occasional shock - sadly for Blackburn and Newcastle United I do not expect any surprises in this weekend's Cardiff double-header.
 |  It may not be good news for Newcastle that Sir Alex Ferguson's side were so abject in defeat at Norwich |
Not only do Arsenal and Manchester United have greater quality than their opponents, they also have the added incentive of knowing that the FA Cup is their last refuge when it comes to silverware this season.
If someone had suggested at the start of the season that the FA Cup would be the final chance for those two clubs to win something this season, they would have been regarded as potty.
Manchester United and Arsenal have been brought up on success, and for United in particular a second season without a serious tilt at the big boys' prizes - the Premiership and the Champions League - will be a serious source of frustration.
This motivation, plus the great lure of winning the FA Cup, still a great tournament no matter what anyone tells you, will provide that added push for the two favourites to win and play out the final in May.
If we start with the game between Arsenal and Blackburn, the first thing we must stress is what a magnificent job Mark Hughes has done since taking over at Ewood Park.
He has made them solid, always the first priority, and they have had some very good results recently, keeping clean sheets at Everton, Liverpool and Manchester United.
Blackburn would have to go into meltdown to be relegated, so they can approach the game in a relaxed frame of mind, with all attentions focused on beating Arsenal.
Robbie Savage has been missing for Blackburn, and whatever people may think of him, he is someone who will set a tone and tempo and it will be a blow if Hughes feels he is not match-fit enough to take part.
Blackburn have a real dilemma tactically, although Hughes has shown himself to be a shrewd operator.
If they come out and have a go they will get cut apart by Thierry Henry and company and slaughtered, and if they sit back it will only be a matter of time before they concede.
They have, however, shown they can frustrate teams and get in and around them, and this may be their best opportunity against an Arsenal side that can occasionally be unsettled, as I've said before and as they were against Manchester United in this game last season.
| Most neutrals would love to see Shearer add to his medal collection, but sadly I can't see Newcastle getting through |
Of course Blackburn can win, this is an FA Cup semi-final after all, but I honestly believe the all-round quality of Arsene Wenger's team will win the day.
The other game between Newcastle and Manchester United is even more intriguing, with a variety of sub-plots - but once again I'm going to go with the favourites.
Newcastle took a real hit in the Uefa Cup quarter-final against Sporting Lisbon on Thursday, not only suffering a morale-sapping defeat but picking up a few injuries in the process.
But I know their manager Graeme Souness and there will be no defeatist talk coming from him. He is a fiercely-competitive winner and will see this as a chance to bounce back.
It was all going well for Newcastle until a couple of weeks ago, suddenly you had the fight between Kieron Dyer and Lee Bowyer - which on top of all else ruled them out of the semi-final - and a few defeats.
Souness, however, will know what a massive chance this is for Newcastle.
And for Alan Shearer, there is the chance to lead Newcastle to an FA Cup final, which he will be desperate to do.
Most neutrals in football would love Shearer to add to his honours - a good man and a magnificent professional who has never been anything other than the perfect role model.
Sadly for Alan, I just don't see it happening here.
It was not exactly the best piece of news for Newcastle that Manchester United lost so abjectly at Norwich.
Harsh words will have been spoken and there could even be a feeling in the camp that some players are playing for their Old Trafford futures.
Roy Keane has laid down the law to his team-mates, so you can rest assured Manchester United's players will be right up for this and will come out with all guns blazing.
They are top professionals. Top professionals hate losing, and will certainly hate losing in the manner they did at Carrow Road.
As with Arsenal, I expect Manchester United's greater quality to ensure they come out on top against Newcastle.
So you can hardly accuse me of taking a chance, but I'm going to have to go with an Arsenal-Manchester United FA Cup final.
MMIX
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