As we enter the business end of the season, the race to qualify for the Champions League is really hotting up - and the next few weeks will be absolutely crucial for Aston Villa.
Before the season started, most pundits probably expected Martin O'Neill's side to be pushing for a top six place, but I think they've surprised everyone by breaking into the top four, to the point where they have even been threatening Chelsea and Liverpool.
However, Sunday's 2-2 draw against Stoke shows just how fragile Villa's grip on that fourth spot is, and the way it came about - conceding two goals in the last five minutes - could be a big blow.
Sunday's match was Villa's 44th this season, and they looked a team lacking in sparkle - jaded and weary
Villa's success this season has been built mainly on two key factors - their consistency of selection and their pace and power going forward.
But these two plus points could quickly become minuses if they are not careful.
Seven of Villa's starting XI on Sunday have played more than 90% of their games this season. In today's game, with the size of the squads and team rotation and the like, that is a huge statistic.
That continuity has helped forge a fantastic team spirit and style of play, with everybody knowing their job - and the job of their team-mates - inside-out. It is a big reason they are where they are now.
But Sunday's match was Villa's 44th this season, and they looked a team lacking in sparkle - jaded and weary - and when you rely on pace and movement as much as Villa do, that is a worrying sight.
O'Neill has built a defensively sound unit, that explodes going forward.
James Milner, Ashley Young and Gabriel Agbonlahor burst in behind defences brilliantly, feeding off the second ball provided them by the target man, Emile Heskey or John Carew.
This lends itself ideally to a really effective gameplan away from home, proven by the fact Villa have won 10 of their 13 away matches this season.
Home teams are almost always encouraged by the supporters to take the initiative and get on the front foot, but this exposes them to the counter-attacking wing play that has served Villa so well.
When Villa are at home, though, it is a different story. Early in the season, Villa took a few teams by surprise, but recent matches have seen opponents set out to nullify their attack.
Stoke did this very well for an hour on Sunday. Their three centre halves, sat deep, made it tough for Agbonlahor to break the back line, and they always had a spare man to either track the front-runner or follow Heskey when he dropped a little deeper.
And with Danny Pugh and Andy Wilkinson man-on-man against Milner and Young, there was no space in behind for the wingers to exploit.
Villa thrive when they are able to get Milner and Young to the byeline, but Stoke were happy to sit and frustrate them - and, to be honest, O'Neill's side were fortunate to go 1-0 up when they did.
Stoke then showed they have a 'plan B' when things aren't going right, with Ricardo Fuller's introduction giving them a greater threat in attack that, in the end, helped snatch them a draw.
But we have yet to see if Villa have a 'plan B' now that teams are looking to frustrate them.
In Gareth Barry and Stilian Petrov, they have two excellent passers of the football, and even when teams sit back against them, Villa have enough attacking presence to score goals and win games.
But they have to be a bit smarter than they were on Sunday in their next few games - starting with Wednesday's game at Manchester City.
Sunday's draw will have hit O'Neill's side hard, but they remain six points ahead of Arsenal and eight ahead of Everton, and if they get back to winning ways at Eastlands, Sunday's draw will quickly be forgotten.
However, another draw or defeat could open some cracks and that could let in Arsenal or Everton in the race for fourth.
If Arsenal were in any sort of form, or if Everton hadn't had such a poor start to the season, Villa's hold of fourth spot would already be even more precarious than it is now.
They need to recapture their spark and verve, and assess how they go about breaking teams down at home when the opposition is happy to sit and soak up pressure. They have only the league to concentrate on, now, so that should play in their favour.
If this were a young side with an inexperienced boss, I might be tipping them to fall away, but O'Neill is a tremendous manager and Villa have real quality in their ranks.
It will be a battle in the run-in, I'm sure, and my heart wants Arsenal to get that fourth spot - but I just fancy Villa to stumble over the line.
E-mail this to a friend 
Printable version 
Bookmark with:
What are these?