By Jonathan Agnew BBC cricket correspondent

Panesar's fielding got worse as the Sri Lanka series went on

It is always impossible to replace Andrew Flintoff like-for-like - he is virtually three players in one.

Instead England could extend the already disturbingly long tail still further and play an extra seam bowler - Sajid Mahmood or Jon Lewis - against Pakistan at Lord's.

Otherwise, they could bat Ian Bell at number six, and rely on a few overs of medium pace from Paul Collingwood to give the front-line bowlers a break.

There seems no doubt that England will go down that route on Thursday.

But although Matthew Hoggard is expected to have recovered from his cut right thumb, one of Mahmood and Lewis still have an outside chance.

Monty Panesar's selection would not have been entirely without serious discussion.

Now we know that Flintoff will definitely take England to Australia, it is crucial he and Strauss forge a strong and trusting relationship

I have a feeling that Duncan Fletcher, the coach, liked what he saw in Jamie Dalrymple during the disastrous one-day series.

Because he is so concerned about the lack of batting depth in this team, I would not be surprised if Fletcher's weight went behind the Middlesex man, rather than Panesar.

And that is despite Panesar taking his first five-wicket haul in the last Test at Trent Bridge.

There remains the concern about Panesar's fielding, and what the enormous and aggressive Australian crowds might do to him this winter.

But in terms of bowling ability alone, no-one else in the country comes close to touching him.

It remains Panesar's responsibility to work night and day on improving his fielding which, if anything, seemed to get worse as the series against Sri Lanka developed.

Strauss will only captain England until Flintoff returns

This is confirmation that his confidence is affected by his mistakes, and that putting him on the field in Melbourne on Boxing Day would, indeed, be throwing him to the slaughter.

Andrew Strauss will have mixed emotions as he leads England out on Thursday.

He will be immensely proud, of course, but I am sure this will be tinged with disappointment that, whatever happens, he will be replaced when Flintoff is fit again.

It is not easy to lead a team knowing that you are merely a stop gap.

But now we know that Flintoff will definitely take England to Australia, it is crucial he and Strauss forge a strong and trusting relationship.

This is especially important for the periods of time that Flintoff is bowling in the heat of a Test match.

Strauss can take over the tinkering with the field and even advise Flintoff when he should take a break.

There is no hiding the fact that England will be seriously up against it when they arrive in Australia.