By Tom Fordyce

Ferguson shocked by exit Man Utd 1-1 Porto

As Sir Alex Ferguson does his morning rounds at Manchester United's training ground on Wednesday, one question will be dominating his thinking.

Are United lying stricken on the life-support machine - or can the patient fight back to make a full recovery?

The instant diagnosis after Tuesday evening's last-gasp defeat by Porto makes uncomfortable reading. For the first time in eight years, United have failed to make the quarter-finals of the Champions League.

In the Premiership, they lie nine points behind an Arsenal side who are pulling in the plaudits from Highbury to Hong Kong. To stay alive in the FA Cup they must outwit the same opposition - a team who are gradually proving themselves the best in Britain.

Off the pitch, they have just lost out to Chelsea in the race to sign Dutch wing prodigy Arjen Robben. John Magnier and JP McManus have challenged Ferguson's autonomy at Old Trafford. And the threat of a takeover from American entrepreneur Malcolm Glazer still hangs over the boardroom.

A gloomy prognosis indeed - but a second opinion can produce a more optimistic reading.

Sure, United will be desperately disappointed to go out of the Champions League, and the loss of up to �10m in additional revenue will hurt.

But football is not like any other form of business. Upsets happen. Another European giant, Juventus, also crashed out last night and, on Wednesday, either Real Madrid or Bayern Munich will do the same.

Had Paul Scholes' second goal not been incorrectly disallowed for offside on the stroke of half-time, United would have been 2-0 up and cruising. As it was, the linesman's flag - and one slight misjudgement by Tim Howard - were all that prevented them easing into the last eight.

The Premiership race is far from over. United still have to play Arsenal. Should they win that game, the gap closes to six points.

Arsene Wenger's men are not robots. It is conceivable that they could drop points away at Newcastle, home to Liverpool and away at Tottenham, to name but three of the tricky games in their 11 remaining fixtures.

United have a manager who is the most experienced and successful operator still working in British football, and a core of players who both Arsenal and Chelsea would be delighted to have at their disposal - Ruud van Nistelrooy, Ryan Giggs, Paul Scholes and Rio Ferdinand.

Ferguson has proved before that he can reinvigorate teams who appear to be struggling. He did it just a year ago, when Arsenal were sailing clear at the top of the Premiership and the obituaries were already being written for Ferguson's United.

Yet it is hard to shake the feeling that this is more than just a temporary malaise. Had United been top of the Premiership when they lost to Porto, and playing the sort of football that wins championships, it would be easier to write off the defeat as an unfortunate blip.

But they are not. The biggest surprise about Porto's aggregate win was that it was not that much of a surprise. United played with great determination and endeavour, yes, but not with the fluency or vim of old.

Van Nistelrooy, one of the world's great strikers, was reduced to fighting for scraps in his own half. The midfield struggled to put together enough passing moves. You could count United's goal-scoring chances on the fingers of one hand.

Apart from the occasional burst, United have not played like the United of old all season. While Ferguson's latest crop of acquisitions deserve time to bed down, at the moment they are not as good as the players they were bought to replace.

Would you swap Cristiano Ronaldo for David Beckham? Right now, no.

Ferguson's biggest challenge

In years gone by, United could be confident of marching into the transfer market and buying big to correct any problems. Not any more. While United still carry enormous financial clout, Chelsea are now the dominant force. Arsenal's new stadium will bring them closer, too.

Maybe there is another way at looking at last season's championship win. Rather than being proof that United were still in rude health, what if it represented the last hurrah of the old guard?

That is not to say that United are a spent force. But when Liverpool's period of dominance ended in the 1990s, it did so in similar fashion - with one final championship in 1990 sandwiched between two titles for Arsenal, and in a welter of new signings who failed to match their predecessors.

Ferguson thrives on adversity. But even this most combative of characters will realise that he now faces one of the toughest tests in his entire career.