Power versus power - will Rybakina or Sabalenka blink first?

Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka will meet in the Australian Open women's singles finalImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Aryna Sabalenka (right) leads 8-6 against Elena Rybakina in their head-to-head record

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Fire versus ice - a contrasting match-up of personalities that tennis knows all too well.

World number one Aryna Sabalenka will provide the demonstrative energy in Saturday's Australian Open final, while fifth seed Elena Rybakina will offer clinical composure from the other side of the net.

What both players are certain to bring, however, is plenty of explosive power.

Given the pair are two of the biggest ball-strikers on the WTA Tour - and lethal with their serves - it will be fascinating to see whose game breaks down first in what should be an intense contest.

BBC Sport examines the case for each player before they meet on Rod Laver Arena at 08:30 GMT.

The case for Sabalenka

Sabalenka has won two of her four Grand Slam singles titles in Melbourne and, given that pedigree, is the favourite to triumph again.

The 27-year-old Belarusian thrives on Australian hard courts, using the quicker surface to puncture holes through even the most stoic of defensive players.

The manner in which Sabalenka hit Ukraine's Elina Svitolina off the court in the semi-finals was testament to that.

However, finding a way past Rybakina might require a more subtle approach.

Working on the variety of her game - coming forward to the net and showing more deftness - has been a key focus for Sabalenka.

"Her shots are heavy, deep, flat balls. It's not easy to work with," Sabalenka said.

Sabalenka has found a solution, though, having won eight of their 14 previous meetings - including the 2023 Australian Open final where she claimed her maiden Grand Slam title.

But she was beaten when the pair last met in November's WTA Finals showpiece.

"Sabalenka has a bit more firepower which can force Rybakina into some areas she doesn't want to be in - but there isn't much in it," said 1987 Wimbledon champion and BBC Radio 5 live analyst Pat Cash.

"It'll be interesting to see how they handle each other's pace."

Sabalenka has reached her seventh consecutive final at a hard-court major, becoming only third woman in the Open era to achieve that feat after Steffi Graf and Martina Hingis.

Sabalenka has also contested the Australian Open final in each of the past four years and her consistency in reaching the latter stages at Grand Slams is unparalleled among the current crop.

Yet there remains a feeling that Sabalenka has not converted as many of those runs into major trophies as she should have, given her dominance on the WTA Tour.

"I would say that last year was lots of lessons, lots of things to learn about myself, and definitely not gonna happen again this season," said Sabalenka, who lost in the Australian Open and French Open finals in 2025.

"It's a different mentality that I will try to have in each final that I play.

"My mentality is I'm ready to go out there, fight with what I have and do everything I can."

The case for Rybakina

Rybakina - not entirely surprisingly given her understated personality - regularly flies under the radar.

But the 26-year-old from Kazakhstan has reminded everyone about her capabilities throughout this fortnight.

Winning the 2022 Wimbledon title showed how high her ceiling can be, but she has not reached the same heights since.

Saturday will be her first Grand Slam final since losing to Sabalenka here three years ago.

Her inconsistency at the majors when compared to Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff may also be why Rybakina is less visible.

But, having increased her level from the back of the court this fortnight to reach the final, she is back in the spotlight.

"The serve quite often might not work as much as I want and you need to be ready with other aspects of your game," she said.

"I'm just trying to stay calm in these situations, trying to think and adjust during the match. For now, it's been working."

Aryna Sabalenka has won four Grand Slam titles, 22 career titles and has a 34-6 win-loss record at the Australian Open. Elena Rybakina has won one Grand Slam, 11 career titles and has a 20-6 win-loss record at the Australian Open.Image source, Getty Images

Despite her reservations about the quality of her opening shot, Rybakina has still won 86% of her service games - a tournament high and just ahead of Sabalenka's 84%.

She has also fired down 41 aces. No other player in the women's draw has managed over 30.

Using her power from the baseline effectively marks Rybakina out as a dominant front-runner.

She has won her past 23 matches after winning the first set - and you feel she will have to do the same against Sabalenka.

Staying aggressive and not getting tight in the crucial moments will be crucial.

"When you're pushing the forehand it is not effective - you need to continue going for it and it'll click," Cash added.

"It's a natural thing that you'll miss a few, but you don't stop and when they land they're unstoppable."

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