What history tells us about Arsenal's title chances

While it is too early in the season to have reached peak 'squeaky bum time', many Arsenal supporters are no doubt literally or figuratively shifting restlessly in their seats.

Sunday's home defeat by Manchester United was their third successive Premier League match without a win, and what appeared a commanding seven-point lead before the weekend has been reduced to a frailer-looking four. Such is the fickle nature of modern football.

But what does history tell us about Arsenal's title chances from what is still an enviable position?

The Gunners have been Premier League leaders at this stage of a season on three previous occasions but only went on to lift the title once - the Invincibles season of 2003-04, when they finished unbeaten.

They had a two-point lead after 23 matches then. That was also the case in 2022-23, with Mikel Arteta's side extending their lead to eight points after 29 games, having played one more than Manchester City, only to capitulate during the run-in.

Arsenal's biggest advantage after 23 fixtures was a five-point lead in 2002-03. The term 'squeaky bum time' originated later that season when then Manchester United manager Sir Alex Ferguson was seeking to heap pressure on the Gunners. The north London side duly stumbled, eventually finishing five points adrift as United regained the title.

The Premier League leaders have been at least four points clear at this stage of the season on 20 previous occasions - all but four of those went on to become champions.

Newcastle famously blew a 12-point lead in 1995-96, while Manchester United relinquished a five-point advantage over Arsenal in 1997-98 before the roles were reversed five years later. Liverpool held a four-point lead in 2019 and were unbeaten over their remaining 15 games, winning 11, but were still edged out by a relentless Manchester City.

If we rewind a week to when Arsenal's lead was seven points, no side this century has blown a comparable advantage after 22 matches. In Premier League history, only Newcastle in 1996 and Manchester United in 1998 - with respective leads of nine and seven points - have failed to win the title from a position similar to Arsenal's before last weekend.

Data analysts Opta still give Arsenal an 81.7% chance of winning the title, based on 10,000 simulations of each team's remaining fixtures.

Pundits, though, are less certain that Arsenal will end their 22-year wait for a league title this season, with several wondering whether Arteta and his players will hold their nerve.

"There are still some questions about the mental strength of the team," says Arsenal's former title-winning captain Patrick Vieira. "When I say now or never [to win the league], it is because other teams are not doing well.

"It will be sad to see them losing that momentum, so that is why it is important to stick together and create this togetherness to keep performing."

Five-time Premier League winner Peter Schmeichel told BBC Radio 5 Live: "I think the inexperience of everyone at Arsenal of not winning the Premier League and having finished second for three years and being close - that is now coming back to them.

"It is not the pressure from the outside, it is more internally. That is something they have to learn [to cope with], and they have to learn it quickly."

However, Premier League record goalscorer Alan Shearer still believes Arsenal will win the title because of their squad strength, and added: "I don't think it's a time to panic. You're going to get dodgy results at some stage of the season. You've got to stay calm."

Arteta recognises that fact and told the BBC after the Manchester United defeat: "The margins are extremely small and we made them even smaller. Now we have to react and see what we are made of."

The answer to that may well become clearer when they face Leeds United at Elland Road on Saturday afternoon (15:00 GMT).