Could one win get Scotland out of World Cup group?

Morocco's Achraf Hakimi, Brazil's Vinicius Junior, and Haiti's Carlens ArcusImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Scotland face Morocco, Brazil, and Haiti at the 2026 World Cup

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After a 27-year absence from the World Cup finals, Scotland are back and know they will be taking on Brazil, Morocco and Haiti in the United States next June.

It is a daunting task for Steve Clarke and his team, but the Tartan Army will already be going to bed with an American dream of progression.

Their chances will be boosted by the expanded format, where even finishing third in Group C may be enough.

The eight best third-place sides in the group stage will join the group winners and runners-up in the first knockout round.

So could one win be enough for Scotland? Here is all you need to know.

Could one win be enough for Scotland?

There are only four third-place sides who will miss out on a place in the last 32 of the World Cup from the 12 groups.

So it's all eyes on Haiti for Scotland, a game they must surely win to have a realistic chance of getting out of the group.

Four points will almost certainly get you through, but will three points be enough?

Maybe, but then goal difference would be key.

Looking back at recent World Cups, and applying similar logic - but with three third-placed teams through in those cases - this is how it would look:

In only one season, 2010, would four points have been required.

2022: Four third-placed teams finished on three points. Goal difference of zero was needed.

2018: Six groups had third-placed teams on three points. Goal difference of -1 needed.

2014: Five third-placed teams had three points. Goal difference of -1 required

2010: Four points would have been required.

2006: Only one team in third got more than three points. Three points and goal difference of -2 was enough.

2002: Four teams gained three points or fewer. Goal difference of zero needed.

1998: Six of the third-placed teams gained more than three points. Goal difference of -5 would have seen a third-placed team through.

'It's a great draw, bring it on'

05/12/2025

What about Scotland's opponents?

So the best chance for a Scotland win looks most likely in the first game against Haiti.

Ranked 84th in the world, the Carribean nation qualified for their first World Cup since 1974 by beating Nicaragua last month.

Manager Sebastien Migne has been unable to set foot on Haiti since being appointed 18 months ago because a conflict in the country forces them to play their home matches 500 miles away in Curacao - an island nation just off the coast of South American country Venezuela.

Wolves' midfielder Jean-Ricner Bellegarde is among their squad, some of whom play in Major League Soccer or European leagues.

Morocco are second seeds but are ranked 11th in the world, were semi-finalists at the last World Cup and boast the likes of Paris Saint-Germain's Achraf Hakimin and Real Madrid's Brahim Diaz.

They won all eight of their qualifiers, scoring 22 goals and conceding just twice.

While Brazil stars like Vinicius Junior and Gabriel need little intorduction, nor does manager Carlo Ancelotti.

However, the five-time winners struggled in qualifying. They ended up fifth in the 10-team section in South America, losing six times, including to Bolivia.

So if Scotland can beat Haiti and either take a point or narrow defeat against the top two seeds, they stand a good chance of going through to the last 32.

Not that Clarke is taking anyone lightly.

"Haiti as the pot four team will be difficult," he told BBC Scotland.

"They won their qualifying section quite comfortably but we managed to win ours as well so bring it on."

What are the pundits saying?

Former Scotland captain Scott Brown: "We've got to look to beat Haiti, it will be a huge game for us. Morocco, we'll be underdogs from looking at the world rankings, it's a hard game.

"Brazil is the big one. Everyone will want to be at that Scotland v Brazil game. Seeing that yellow shirt, they've got top quality players. As do Morocco.

"We've got to beat Haiti and try to pick up points somewhere else. There is hope for us."

Former Scotland forward James McFadden: "It's a tough draw. You've got the glamour tie against Brazil. Then Morocco, people will tip them to be a dark horse because they got to a semi-final last time.

"And you hate to say it, because it's international football, but it's a winnable tie against Haiti.

"It makes it a little bit better. If you finish third it gives you an opportunity. We should be going to try to upset people, particulartly Brazil and Morocco."

Where are Scotland's games?

Scotland will open against Haiti on Saturday 13 June in Boston or New York.

They will then take on Morocco on Friday 19 June in Boston or Philadelphia, before finishing against Brazil in either Atlanta or Miami on Wednesday 24 June.

The venues and kick-off times will be confirmed on Saturday, 6 December in a live global broadcast on Saturday, 6 December at 17:00 GMT (12:00 local time).

What about buying tickets?

The first batch of tickets went on sale at the start of October, with more than 4.5 million fans entering a draw for a chance to buy them.

However, some fans will be able to apply for tickets this month for Scotland's games.

Members of the Scotland Supporters Club (SSC), made up of those who go to home and away games regularly, will be given access to apply from Monday, 15 December until the final deadline on 13 January.

These tickets will be allocated based on the Scottish FA's loyalty points system.

It is not yet clear how many tickets will be specifically allocated to Scotland fans, given the venues are still to be confirmed.

Those who are not SSC members will have to wait for a last-minute sales phase which will take place closer to the tournament.

Fifa is adopting a 'dynamic' pricing model for the tournament, meaning ticket prices for matches deemed high demand could be raised significantly during later sales periods.