Is nuclear disarmament set to self-destruct?

In February 2026, the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty bilateral between Russia and the United States is set to expire. The aim of the New START agreement was to reduce and limit the number of strategic nuclear warheads, but once this treaty comes to an end it means there will no longer be rules on the cap of these nuclear weapons. The legal provisions in the treaty for a one-time five-year extension, were used in 2021.

The multilateral Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is still in place, to which 190 countries are signatories. The general idea behind the NPT was for nuclear countries to reduce their stockpiles of nuclear weapons, with the goal of complete disarmament. Whilst those countries without nuclear weapons would commit to not pursuing them. In 1995 the members agreed to extend the treaty indefinitely, but it is not without its challenges. Four nuclear powers sit outside the NPT and there are rifts between the non-nuclear and nuclear states.

So, on The Inquiry this week we’re asking, ‘Is nuclear disarmament set to self-destruct?’

Contributors:
Hermann Wentker, Professor of Modern History, University of Potsdam and Head of Berlin Research Department, The Leibniz Institute for Contemporary History, Germany
Alexandra Bell, President and CEO, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, USA
Mike Albertson, arms-control expert, former negotiator on New START arms reduction treaty, USA
Nathalie Tocci, Professor of Practice, Johns Hopkins SAIS (School of Advanced International Studies), Italy

Presenter: Charmaine Cozier
Producer: Jill Collins
Researcher: Evie Yabsley
Production Management Assistant: Liam Morrey
Technical Producer: Richard Hannaford
Editor: Tom Bigwood

(Photo: Deck of the nuclear submarine Saphir. Credit: Alexis Rosenfeld/Getty Images)