Swine flu economics

Have we over-reacted to swine flu - or H1N1 as pig farmers would no doubt prefer to call it?

The virus isn't as vicious as it once seemed. It is true that every day the number of countries affected increases, but the number of deaths still remains absolutely tiny, minuscule, compared to the 15 million or so who die every year from all infectious diseases, including routine flu.

But the point is: to prevent the worst you have to prepare for the worst. So, how do the authorities work out what cost is worth paying to prevent flu?

Professor John Edmonds of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine is an economist and mathematician who models the spread of diseases. He starts with the nature of the disease, the epidemiology.

The authorities have to make a calculation about how much economic disruption, like closing airports or schools, is worth suffering to contain an outbreak.

They also have to calculate how much of a drug is worth stock-piling. And they have to calculate when they want the drug companies to switch production to start making medicine to counter a current outbreak.

Dr Richard Barker is the Director-General of the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry - the big drug companies. He explained that there are two different types of drug, one to prevent you getting the flu in the first place and one to ease the symptoms if you do get it.