................................................................................ ON THE RECORD RECORDED FROM TRANSMISSION BBC-1 DATE: 31.3.96
................................................................................ JOHN HUMPHRYS: Good afternoon. The Tories have revealed their strategy for fighting the next Election. We'll be asking the man in charge of the campaign - the Chairman of the Party - how he's going to make it work. That's after the News read by Chris Lowe. NEWS HUMPHRYS: But first, the General Election. The Tories are still disastrously behind in the opinion polls and there's not long now for them to catch up. This weekend, the Chairman of the Party, Brian Mawhinney, told us how they're going to do it - more or less. They're going to tell us that we've scarcely ever had it better - and if we vote Tory it'll go on getting better. Well Mr Mawhinney is with me. Now, we've learned something else about your strategy today, haven't we? This idea of a television debate, a live television debate with Tony Blair. Is that going to happen? BRIAN MAWHINNEY MP: There you go, believing what you read in the newspapers again John. I thought Mr Blair was pretty unpersuasive this morning. He gets trounced by John Major twice a week in the House of Commons on debates. As for the General Election, it may be more than a year away. We'll develop our strategy and we'll let you know whenever it becomes imminent. HUMPHRYS: Why don't you know yet? MAWHINNEY: Because I'm addressing issues on a weekly, monthly, Quarterly basis, in a plan that leads up to the General Election. This Parliament's got more than a year to run. Now we'll have the General Election whenever the Prime Minister says and we'll be ready for it, but I'm not going to divert my attention to things which may or may not happen in the future when I have real pressing issues to address today. But I think Mr Blair would be pretty unenthusiastic. HUMPHRYS: Well - come to that in a minute - but there's a principle here, isn't there? Either this sort of thing is good for democracy or it's not. You must have a view on that, don't you? MAWHINNEY: I don't have a view that it's a principle. What is very important is the democratic process and we probably have the most open, democratic General Election process of - I would guess - any country in the world and we certainly don't have that formalised presidential type of election that the United States has and which, at least,
some of your colleagues would like to push us in the direction. This is genuinely speculation: I heard Central Office officials were discounting this as speculation. This is generally and specifically speculation but being floated by one of your colleagues. HUMPHRYS: But-As you say part of the democratic process, this should, according to many people, be a part of the democratic process. Now you say you haven't decided yet but you would have a view, would you not as to whether or not this sort of thing is, or is not, a part of the democratic process? MAWHINNEY: Well anybody talking-you can make anything part of the democratic process. You wanted to make it part of the principle of democracy. What I'm telling you is that during a General Election- HUMPHRYS: I've not asked for your view on that. What you believe it ought to be, that's what I'm asking you. MAWHINNEY: General-general-Whether we have in a General Election a debate between Mr Major and Mr Blair is something which we may turn our minds to. Frankly, I'm really pretty satisfied with the way we conduct General Elections in this country and I'm not sure that I identify the democratic deficit to which you're making reference. HUMPHRYS: Well, can I offer you a suggestion- MAWHINNEY: Always. HUMPHRYS: - thankyou - as to why you may not yet have decided? And, that is that at the moment Mr Major is massively behind in the polls - we can't, we can't dispute that. If we get closer to the Election and if he is still massively behind in the polls, then he may well want one. If the gap has narrowed he may not. Now, that's a pretty cynical approach,isn't it? MAWHINNEY: Well yes it is and I'm sorry that you introduced it because I certainly don't introduce it and it isn't part of my calculations. If we thought that a debate was appropriate we'd have a debate. If we think it's not - and thus far, can I stress, we have not been attracted to the idea of debates - then we won't have one. But the idea that-that a General Election is somehow less democratic as a consequence is-is nonsense. HUMPHRYS: But if that's not the reason, then what other reason might there be for delaying a decision on this? MAWHINNEY: It's not delaying a decision. It's not even an issue that has come across my thought process or my desk. HUMPHRYS: Oh but you've been asked about this many times in the past. Mr Major has been asked about it. The invitation is there. As you know, Tony Blair this morning accepted it with alacrity, as he put it - so, it's there. MAWHINNEY: No, it's not. What - for the sake of accuracy - what he was responding to was a speculative story in one of the national newspapers pooh-pooh'd by Central Office officials. And, having been put in a position where he had to make a judgment one way or the other, he decided to say: Yes he'd like one - in the face of being pushed around and trampled under foot in the most gracious way by Mr Major twice a week in the House of Commons. It is not an issue that has even come across my desk. So,
I'm not deferring a decision. I haven't even thought about it, John. HUMPHRYS: Well you say you haven't thought about it at all, which is a bit odd really since lots of people have been talking about it for a long time. MAWHINNEY: Well, maybe I have other things to think about. HUMPHRYS: Of course, of course and I understand, accept that you're a very busy man. But here's Tony Blair having said firmly and positively we would be very, very, very happy to do this. You're dithering about it, you can't decide. MAWHINNEY: Well, forgive me. Let me try just one more time. It isn't a question of can't decide John. I haven't even thought about it. HUMPHRYS: So, won't decide. MAWHINNEY: I haven't even thought about it because we're talking about a General Election which may come over a year in the future and- HUMPHRYS: Alright, but I'm inviting you to think
about it now, you see. I mean, here we are, we've discussed it. You know the issues - certainly as well as I do. Probably a lot better than I do - and you've thought about it since at least this morning because it's in the papers this morning and it's been reported this morning. Having thought about it, Mr Chairman, what's your view? MAWHINNEY: And, John, what sort of a Chairman do you think I would be if on the back of a speculative piece in a national newspaper - and incidentally, if I was to respond to every speculative piece in national newspapers or on the media I would never get anything else done- HUMPHRYS: Right. MAWHINNEY: What sort of a Chairman do you think I would be if on the back of a speculative piece in the national newspaper and a question from the eminent John Humphrys, I was suddenly to make a fundamental decision about the nature of the General Election? Uou'd hold me in pretty low regard as a Chairman and rightly so. So I'm not going to do it John. HUMPHRYS: So you haven't made a decision. MAWHINNEY: I haven't thought about it John. You're not going to-forgive me but I'm not going to allow you to paint me into a corner as somebody who can't make up his mind. It has not thus far been an issue John. HUMPHRYS: Alright. So is it still open then? MAWHINNEY: John, we will have a General Election, we will conduct that in a way which will be open and democratic. We will draw on the experience of previous General Elections in which we have not had the sort of debate that you have in mind. And, whenever we are ready to reveal the nature and the content of our General Election strategy, you'll be among the first to know. HUMPHRYS: I appreciate that. But as we speak you haven't closed your mind to it? It is open? MAWHINNEY: John, I haven't even thought about it. HUMPHRYS: Alright, so much for the medium as it were. What about the message? Now, you've been painting - you, Mr Major, Mr Heseltine have been painting - a very glowing picture of life in Britain over the last few days, at your Conference. That doesn't square with the experience of many people. You're telling 'em in essence they've never had it so good, or something vaguely akin to that message and a lot of people may feel they've actually never had it so bad, or at least they're having it pretty bad at the moment. So, your message isn't going to wash with them is it? MAWHINNEY: Well not if your analysis is correct.
But fortunately your analysis isn't correct. What we have been saying-What I said explicity at Harrogate was people are going to want to know where are the jobs and the personal prosperity going to come from in the twenty-first century, against the challenge of the Asian economies - about which Michael Heseltine spoke so eloquently - in terms of the jobs that people want. Now, the truth is that Unemployment has been falling in this country steadily for the best part of two and a half years and faster than in any of our major competitor countries in Europe. People's real disposal income is going up and is going to go up considerably more in the next financial year. We are creating more jobs than any other country in Europe. We are attracting more investment than ever before in our history. That's jobs and personal prosperity and local community prosperity. And, we're attracting a disproportionate amount as far as the European Union is concerned, into this country. And, our exports are going up all of the time, record level after record level. So, if people are interested in jobs and increasing in personal prosperity, then, as I said at Harrogate, we will invite people to look around them to see that some very tough and very unpopular political decisions which we had to take coming out of the recession, which were the right decisions. We said then that they were the right decisions, they are now demonstrably the right decisions. And, we wil say to people, against that, where jobs are being created, where unemployment is going down, where personal prosperity is going up, ask yourself the question whether a Labour Party that will have a Social Chapter and a Minimum Wage - both of which independent experts say will increase Unemployment and reduce jobs - and a deal conducted in secret with the trade unions - to allow all of that centralised trade union dominated issues - is that going to enhance the creation of jobs and personal prosperity or is it going to reduce it? I have no doubt what their answer is. HUMPHRYS: Well, I shan't even attempt to answer myself that last question - it's not for me to do that. But you have painted there a pretty rosy picture. Now let's contrast that with the real experience of many people who are worried about security. You say you've created more jobs but they're worried about longterm security. Old people are worried about losing their homes if they fall ill and have to go into a nursing home; people are worried about paying for their children's university education; negative equity. There are all sorts of problems facing people today which may well say to them: actually, I don't feel as if I've never had it so good and your danger is that you may look rather out of touch. Isn't that the case? MAWHINNEY: Well, first of all, the 'I've never had it so good' phrase is yours. It's not mine. HUMPHRYS: No, no. I didn't say you used that phrase but the message you gave was quite clearly that putting aside... MAWHINNEY: Life is better is the message that I- HUMPHRYS: Life is better. MAWHINNEY: I'm very happy to say that. HUMPHRYS: Some people may say: actually, life isn't better because I'm very worried now, in a way that, perhaps, I didn't used to be. MAWHINNEY: Let me try to remember the four issues that you raised. The first was job security and yes of course, we have moved from a circumstance where people got a job for life. But in a competitive economy, in a worldwide competitive economy the best security is to be competitive in the marketplace and that is increasingly what is happening in this country. And, it requires a change of thought process as well, in as much as life training, life education, is part of that job framework and we have done so. You said, secondly, about old people being concerned. The Prime Minister, yesterday, announced that in a few weeks time we'd be unveiling a White Paper, precisely because we recognise that there is an issue about the care of very old people in nursing homes and residential homes and that we want to offer them the assurance and the reassurance that they should have and that they can expect from a Conservative government that believes in wealth cascading down through the generations. You asked about universities. The truth is that if you look at the profile in this country and in other countries, the number of young people going to university is rising and that there is no differential, as I understand it. I have no reason to believe that there is any differential that has disproportionately affected those on lower incomes going to university. And, on negative equity, the best circumstance for people who are in negative equity is a growing economy, with a housing market that is starting to move and both of those are now in place. Of course, I feel sorry for people who are in negative equity but the growth of the economy and the movement of the housing market, which again independent experts are saying is now taking place, that's the best way to address that fundamental concern. HUMPHRYS: You talk about the growth of the economy - and you claim credit for that - in fact, the things that have happened to the economy that have led to that growth have been in spite of what you set out to do, rather than because of them. MAWHINNEY: Oh, come on, John. HUMPHRYS: Membership of ERM, central to your whole economic policy. You were forced out of ERM, against your wishes. MAWHINNEY: John, the single most important thing about an economy that grows is a government that gets inflation down and keeps inflation down and reassures people of its commitment to keep inflation down. That creates the framework in which others - businesses, industry, small and medium-sized businesses, in particular - can go out there into the marketplace, can become competitive, can sell their goods, can offer a service, can employ people. That's what happened. HUMPHRYS: And it's happened because you were force out and much of it has happened because you were forced out of ERM. Days before being forced to leave the ERM, you were saying: this is the cornerstone of our policy. Now, you were forced out of it and many of those things that have happened happened because you were forced out of it. So, it wasn't down to your positive actions... MAWHINNEY: Forgive me, there's just a smidgen of revisionism in that analysis. Certainly, we came out of ERM - that's not revisionism. HUMPHRYS: And had to - didn't want to. MAWHINNEY: And other countries did as well and it is worth remembering that that period in the ERM was because we were using that as a mechanism to drive down inflation. We got to a point where we had to develop other means and that is certainly right. But, it was also against a background, John, where Government is now spending forty-two per cent of the GDP and we are going down against a target of forty or less. HUMPHRYS: But... MAWHINNEY: Let me make the point. The average in the other fourteen European countries - European Union countries -is fifty-two per cent and rising. So, you said that we had no role to play. The fact is that we have sought to position ourselves, in economic terms, in economic framework terms, in a way which allows business and industry to go out and do what they're good at and that's what's happening. HUMPHRYS: Didn't Tony Blair put his finger on what's really going to be your problem and that is the perception of the Government as being competent or incompetent and he pointed out this morning you will be seen as an incompetent government and we've had a classic example of that in the last week or so and that is beef. You didn't consult with people when you learned what was going on and as a result of that we're in the mess that we're in today over it. MAWHINNEY: That's nonsense, absolute nonsense. The scientists came to us and they said: we have ten cases. We have ten cases because we have new scientific techniques. HUMPHRYS: And you didn't then take that evidence, take that information to the European Union for instance, to the Commission and say: look, we've got this problem, let's talk about it. You didn't take it to the NFU and say we've got this problem let's talk about it. You made an announcement, you were overtaken by events. You've had to react to events and it's too late now because the damage has been done. MAWHINNEY: Wrong. What we did was we took that information immediately to the House of Commons and if we hadn't you would have chastised me in really rather unattractive terms this morning for not having done it and, words like 'cover up' would have flown gently from your lips. What we actually did was we got the evidence from the scientists and the medical people, we went to the House of Commons and we said: here are the facts. We are now responding to those facts. It is very interesting that as we sit here today there is general agreement that the safety issue has been addressed and has satisfactorily been addressed. That was the issue that was originally brought to us. What we now have is a market confidence problem not only in this country but across Europe. And, as you mentioned Mr Blair this morning, let me mention Mr Blair. What he said over the last ten days and what Miss Harman said I treat with contempt. I have been a Member of Parliament for seventeen years and in all of that time I have never heard Opposition politicians behave so disgracefully, so put-at-risk the national interest because they thought that they might be able to grub a few votes from it. There is a market confidence problem. Mr Blair helped to create it. We're going to solve it and he will never, ever escape from the odium of the scaremongering that he and Miss Harman have done over the last ten days. HUMPHRYS: Brian Mawhinney, thank you very much.