............................................................................... ON THE RECORD RECORDED FROM TRANSMISSION: BBC-1 DATE: 27.11.94 ............................................................................... JOHN HUMPHRYS: Mr. Major has his back to the wall - again. If he survives tomorrow's vote in the House, there are still other crises lying in wait for him including, perhaps, a challenge to his leadership this week. NEWS HUMPHRYS: Hello again, well sometime after ten tomorrow night John Major will rise to his feet in the House of Commons and announce that he is going to ask the Queen to dissolve parliament. Assuming, that is, that he loses the vote on the European Finance bill. But he probably won't. So he can settle down to another two years in office while the economy grows even stronger and Labour's lead in the opinion poll grows weaker. Well, maybe, but some say that's just as unlikely. There is another scenario. Mr Major's authority has been so damaged by all this - and there are still so many problems ahead - that he won't be able to cling on to power. Indeed, there may be a leadership challenge within the next few days. That is the scenario we shall be considering in this programme. We'll be talking to Conservative backbenchers of very different persuasions. We'll be talking to real voters. They'd like to vote Tory but many regret they can no longer. UNNAMED MAN: Once the trust is gone, you can't trust them again. And the trust has gone I think, for a lot of people. And I wouldn't trust them again. HUMPHRYS: But first, the humble Conservative backbenchers. Well, not so humble these days because a very small number have it in their power to sabotage the Government's legislation. Edwina Currie is passionately in favour of closer ties with Europe. Richard Shepherd is about as sceptical as you can get. Phil Gallie is lukewarm but he is passionate about VAT on fuel. Richard Shepherd, first. This 'Leadership challenge' - I put it in quotes - what is happening out there in the corridors? RICHARD SHEPHERD MP: Well, I only read about in the Press. So, I can't help you on that score. For my own point, I don't think it's particularly helpful at this juncture and I actually think it's inappropriate. HUMPHRYS: You say you only read about in in the Press, but you do know that people are scurrying about trying to do things? SHEPHERD: In truth, in Parliament, people are always scurrying around trying to do things. And there's a whole raft of reasons - animus can be one of them and dissatisfaction against.... HUMPHRYS: Animus against the Prime Minister? SHEPHERD: ....against individuals, indeed, can be one of them. Judgments on confidence and a long-longer term judgment as to how we are to restore our fortunes with the Electorate at large. So, those are all factors that operate at any given moment, when we're so low in the esteem of the public. HUMPHRYS: Has anybody approached you and said: if we can get the names together, will you sign a Round Robin? SHEPHERD: I have been approached - that is true - but I have also said No - that is also true. HUMPHRYS: Have you? You've been absolutely firm about that? SHEPHERD: Yes. HUMPHRYS: And, you mightn't change your mind, in any circumstances? SHEPHERD: Well, if you're talking about the next few days, no is the answer to that. I won't change my mind, on that matter. But a Party is not immutable and it doesn't last forever, nor any leaderships and I don't see, actually, what it accomplishes, at this stage, without.... My own view on this is that unless you have a clear idea as to who the challenger should be and believe that they will bring about better responses, in terms of the Electorate and the management of the Party, then, you proceed. If you don't have that, then, what is the point of proceeding, other than a sort of state of anarchy. HUMPHRYS: Which sounds a bit like saying: you won't vote for a Leadership challenge because there's nobody there you'd prefer, at this stage, to John Major. SHEPHERD: I think, that's the normal Constitutional position within the Parliament, isn't it? HUMPHRYS: No, no, there's another one, isn't there? And that is that you so totally support John Major that you cannot see any circumstance in which you can support anybody else. I mean, you could say that. SHEPHERD: John Major is the Leader of my Party and I think if we use the words of RAB Butler: "he's the best Prime Minister we've got" HUMPHRYS: Alright. Edwina Currie, anybody approached you and said: will you join us in this quest of ours? EDWINA CURRIE MP: I think I'd bite their ears off if they tried. So, they haven't bothered. But I was just thinking - listening to Richard - how nice it would be if this programme was asking questions about how the United Kingdom was going to increase its influence in Europe, how we were going, as new countries join the European Union, to make sure that we were pulling out weight, paying our way, calling the tune, instead of the kind of rather idle speculation we're going in for, at the moment. And, I do feel. HUMPHRYS: It may not be idle! It may not be idle. CURRIE: Well, I do think that if we had an altogether more positive approach, to the position that we find ourselves in twenty-two years after we joined the European Union, and if we were determined that we were going to increase our influence in Europe and make our voice very much heard in Brussels. SHEPHERD: This is not Europe. CURRIE: Well, then, I have a feeling. HUMPHRYS: Alright. CURRIE: Then, I have a feeling we would all-we would all be looking to the future. Everybody in our Party and perhaps a lot more people in the country, with a great deal more optimism. HUMPHRYS: Let's come back to that area, in a moment. But, let's ask Phil Gallie, up in Scotland and I'm not sure that I'm going to be able to hear you, Mr Galie. I hope so! But, let me ask you whether you've been approached. PHIL GALIE MP No I've not been approached by anyone in this issue. I have had discussions, I was billed earlier as having concerns on VAT, certainly had approaches from my Whips and from the Chancellor about my attitudes but no undue pressures. On the European issue, I think, it's up to Members to make their minds up. But quite honestly, I don't think there's anyone in the country who'll make a better Prime Minister for the country than John Major. And when we're looking at the European issues I think he has fought Britain's corner in Europe and I think he's done it positively. And he's taken note of the concerns of many people in this country over the direction that some would like Europe to go in. HUMPHRYS: Alright. GALIE: ...particularly, those of the French and the Germans. HUMPHRYS: Alright, just one more question then about the leadership, does any of you think there's any remote possibility that they'll get the thirty-four signatures that they need on that letter that they have to send off to Sir Marcus Fox by Thursday. Do you think so Phil Galie? GALIE: No, absolutely no. I think that what we will have is a short debate in the House of Commons. There will be comments made about the unfortunate circumstances in Europe and the waste of money and the fraud that's been going on and I think that all of those who have concerns will recognise their fortunes lie best with Conservative handling of negotiations in Europe, at the present time and in the future. HUMPHRYS: Obviously, you Edwina Currie don't think they're going to get the thirty-four votes. You think, that's entirely- CURRIE: I think that's unlikely. HUMPHRYS: -unlikely. CURRIE: And of course we changed the rules to make it that much harder to have a challenge. A few years ago, it would have been only two signatories that would have been required. HUMPHRYS: Now, you've got to have ten per cent? CURRIE: Now, they've got to have ten per cent. And, I think, it would be a big mistake to have a Leadership challenge, at this time. There's a lot happening, there's a lot happening in Northern Ireland, which requires stability in this country. Nobody in our Party wants a General Election, for the most obvious of reasons, right now. So, I don't think there's going to be a challenge at all. HUMPHRYS: Richard Shepherd, it would clear the air wouldn't it, and a lot of people are saying: The Mail on Sunday, The Sunday Telegraph even saying this morning: clear the air, then, you can assert Mr Major's authority all over again'. SHEPHERD: You can take that view. You know, I actually thought I was coming on this programme to talk about Europe HUMPHRYS: We are. I just wanted to clear this. So, you don't think you'll get the thirty-four signatures? SHEPHERD: I do not know whether there are thirty-
four people out there. There is considerable discontent, you can see the state of the newspapers and in a sense, we react to that. I have no idea whether they can get thirty-four votes or not. HUMPHRYS: Alright, Europe. Mr Major's handling of the European Finance Bill, let's consider that. Do you think his tactics have been sensible? SHEPHERD: Well, I think the whole thing is incomprehensible to most of us in the country. We started two weeks ago with the Government with a putative majority of five hundred, and we have a suicide pact and this may be what's fuelling speculation. I understand that, but it does seem a most extraordinary management of what is a domestic issue, under the European Community's treaties and in our own domestic law. This is County Council chairmen, citizens no less of the Union, sitting together, making an agreement, a deal, and subject of course to the Parliamentary approval. This is the normal business of the parliament of the United Kingdom, the supply of small sums of money, additional sums of money because we're talking about budgets that reach up to ten billion pounds - huge sums in the total quantum of it. But, in this particular issue, this would normally have gone forward with those such as I, who feel very strongly on this matter. As a matter of principle, there would have been a vote and I think a very easy victory for the Government, as it happens. HUMPHRYS: But, it was turned into a confidence issue. SHEPHERD: But we've now turned it into an extraordinary thing that actually does beg the question of Cabinet management of great issues facing this country. We need a referendum. We needed it after Maastricht. Otherwise, all I can see is that my Party is going to be stymied and we say my Party. This is not just an issue for the Conservative Party, it's a national issue. It confronts the Labour Party, and we need the attestation of assent. What........ called 'you've got to show acquiescence or consent'. We've never been able to demonstrate it. HUMPHRYS: Edwina Currie, the Prime Minister's handling of the issue, first of all. He's turned it into something pretty big
and... CURRIE: Well, provided we win it, we'll all think his handling has been absolutely brilliant. SHEPHERD: I don't know. It'll leave scars. HUMPHRYS: Well, no, because he's opened up divisions again, hasn't he, as Richard Shepherd says. CURRIE: I think, the worst scenario would be if we dragged it out for over a year, as we did with the Maastricht Treaty. It took fourteen months to take that legislation through and it was very, very damaging. I hope we can get this whole business through by Christmas and it's important stuff. I mean, my only doubt about it - I'll share with you - is the crowing about how...what a wonderful deal it is; that, in future, France and the Netherlands will, in relative terms to their population, be paying in rather more. That's going to mean that our relative influence was slight. That's the deal that we've done, to take us back to be that much less important in Europe and that bothers me. He who pays the piper in Europe, calls the tune, and I think the United Kingdom should call the tune far more and we're going to find it much more difficult. SHEPHERD: I find that incredible and I must say this is incredible on that basis. We pay fifteen billion in the hope that we can whistle a little bit more loudly. This is an absurd argument. We're having trouble over seventy-five million, let alone the proposition that we pay vast sums in. HUMPHRYS: Just one more question about those tactics though. Threatening to withdraw the Whip, threatening the Constituencies, their associations are going- But, do you think it's right? CURRIE: It seems to have worked. A government is elected on a programme and this was included in all the programme that we did. There is no argument about that. HUMPHRYS: But, you're not elected to support the government of the day. I mean, you're elected to represent your Constituency and to represent your own conscience. CURRIE: And, in this case, as far as I'm concerned, they coincide but we're also elected-. HUMPHRYS: But for many it doesn't. CURRIE: May I answer your question? We're also elected in a Party that has long believed in loyalty. Many of the people who are calling now for people to be disloyal, like Lord Tebbit for example, used to lay down the law about loyalty to the leadership and loyalty to the Party's principles before. That's what we were got- that's what we were elected for and for us to make promises under our leadership. Indeed, in Edinburgh, two years ago and then not be able to put them into operation, is a matter of confidence. I think the Prime Minister's absolutely right and I'm sure he's going to get his majority. HUMPHRYS: Phil Galie, a thought from you about the tactics, the way it's been handled, what are you? GALIE: Well, I think what we've got is a Prime Minister who's establishing his leadership qualities. He went to Edinburgh, he led the negotiations, he achieved much at those talks. And as far as I'm concerned, he pledged the country to a commitment that I'm quite prepared to sign on to. I think it's important to recognise that what we've been calling for many years in this country is strong leadership. That's what John Major is going along with at the present time; that's what he's demonstrating. And, I'd have to say..could I just say? HUMPHRYS: Yes. GALIE: That I find Edwina's comment about Britain paying more into Europe to exert more influence. That's quite astonishing and perhaps that shows why it's so important to have a balanced
view within the Party. Those who feel strongly against European federalisation
and those like Edwina, who seem to be hell bent on giving more and more to European govenment rather than maintaining a national base. I think, the mainstream of the Party is bang on line and it's bang on line with the Prime Minister. HUMPHRYS: Richard Shepherd. What's going to happen tomorrow, in reality is the vote's going to go through, Mr Major will have exerted his authority and will have shown that you, Euro sceptics, are a small group of people, who actually can't do very much when push comes to shove? SHEPHERD: You know you're talking about the management of a Party as well as a Prime Minister, and clever leadership - and this I hold against the Cabinet - it started with the Rubric. There was expected to be a five hundred majority for this, within two weeks you get to a suicide pact. How can you career through like that? Now, I've always believed profoundly that I represent the interests of Alridge-Brownhills. HUMPHRYS: But you've done your best, haven't you and you've lost? SHEPHERD: Let me finish. Lost in the sense of what? 'Have we got a Parliamentary democracy?' are questions that shouldn't come up under a Conservative government. I'm elected for Alridge Brownhills surely, on the floor of the House of Commons, I must express views that I hold deeply or that I hold on behalf of my Constituents. So we've introduced a whole series and raft of other issues into the management of this vote that were wholly unnecessary. That I think has been deeply damaging to the Cabinet. HUMPHRYS: Edwina Currie, quick thought on that. CURRIE: None of what I do or I think is incredible. In my area, in much of this country, if we were not part of European union, we wouldn't had the inward investment. If we were not part of the European union, we wouldn't have the open market and the access...(interruption)... SHEPHERD: I thought we were talking about the techniques.... HUMPHRYS: Go on, let her finish but if you would make it brief because you are as he says making the case for Europe and that could go on for three hours and we haven't got three hours. CURRIE: I'm making a point. There is no conflict between believing what's right for your patch, for your constituency, believing what is right for Europe and believing that all is, all of those is also right for this country. We have no future unless we're in Europe and we have got to get this legislation through. HUMPHRYS: Alright. Let me now turn now to another area where there are potential problems ahead, real problems ahead. Phil Galie, VAT on domestic fuel, the next tranche of that. Are you going to vote against it? GALIE: No, I won't go into lobbies with the Labour Party and the Liberals. That would be hypocritical. They're the Parties of high taxation, they're the Parties who want to put on fuel tax. It's wrong for me to join them in the lobbies. What I won't do is support the Government in this issue. I intermitted to Mr Lamont back in March 1993, that I felt it was a bad idea to put VAT on fuel. I did accept, given the economic circumstances at that time, it was possible that we should go ahead with the eight per cent tranche but I intimated then, that I felt when the economy improved we should step back from the seventeen and a half per cent. I think,
the Government's had remarkable success in their handling of the economy since that time. I think, now's the time to demonstrate that we shouldn't be going ahead with the seventeen and a half per cent and I will not be supporting the Government on that basis. HUMPHRYS: So even if it becomes a confidence issue, which for different sorts of reasons to the Europe Bill, it very well might? GALIE: I will not support the Government on increasing VAT to seventeen and a half per cent. On a vote of confidence, of course, I would support the Government because anyone else handling their economic affairs of the United Kingdom would be a disaster for my constituents, a disaster for Scotland and a disaster for the United Kingdom as a whole. HUMPHRYS: What would you do, Richard Shepherd? SHEPHERD: Oh, I've always said that this regressive taxation is not a Conservative policy and I can't support seventeen and a half per cent. HUMPHRYS: Whether it's a matter of confidence or not? SHEPHERD: Oh, look, this is the danger that we're entering into, that everything becomes a matter of confidence. It makes the Conservative Party unelectable. If I give undertakings to my constituents,
through an election address - which I have done - through my arguments on the floor at the House of Commons and to them and then I say: oh, it doesn't matter what I thought and I protested to you. Smiths Square, the Conservative Central Office, or Number Eleven Downing Street is determining that my views and your views are of no consequence and that the whole purpose of Parliamentary democracy is merely to ensure that the Government always gets its way. That defies almost every convention of our constitution that you've ever heard of growing up. HUMPHRYS: Edwina Currie. CURRIE: I think we need the money. The country certainly wants to spend the money. The country has now, for several years,
been spending more money than it's got coming in in revenue and if we want things like, you know, wonderful Health Service, and new roads, and all the rest of things that my Constituents turn up to my advice bureau week after week and demand from me. Then, I would return to them what an old miner said to me once: you can have whatever you want in life, as long as you are prepared to pay for it. What we should not be doing is demanding these extra spendings and we do all demand them. We all demand them. You do in Alridge-Brownhills as well, and then say: but we don't actually want to rise the tax to pay for it. SHEPHERD: It's a cut in revenue I was looking for. HUMPHRYS: There we must end it. Edwina Currie, Richard Shepherd and Phil Galie, thank you all very much. ...oooOoo...