Joan McAlpine: Brexit talks put indyref2 'on back burner'

Nicola Sturgeon has put independence "on the back burner" while focusing on getting Scotland the best Brexit deal possible, an SNP MSP has said.

Joan McAlpine told a conference that the first minister's priority was Scotland's relationship with the EU.

Ms Sturgeon has said a fresh referendum is "highly likely", with predecessor Alex Salmond predicting a vote in 2018.

Opposition parties have called on Ms Sturgeon to rule out a second referendum altogether.

Ms McAlpine was taking part in a conference run by the Centre on Constitutional Change examining Scotland and Brexit alongside fellow MSPs and members of the European and external relations committee, of which she is the convener.

The Scottish government is considering its options for future relations with the EU after the UK voted to leave in June, with Ms Sturgeon recently launching a "fresh conversation" on independence.

The panel were questioned about whether there was likely to be an independence referendum before the UK completes its exit from the EU.

Ms McAlpine said: "I don't know if there would be an independence referendum before then.

"Everything that the first minister has said so far suggests that an independence referendum is very much on the back burner, and the priority just now is to secure the best possible deal for Scotland.

"One of the difficulties is that we don't actually know what Scotland's position is going to be within negotiations.

"That's something that we're going to explore with the committee, in terms of what are the inter-government relationships going to be, is Scotland just going to be a consultee, or are we actually going to be fully engaged in shaping the deal?"

Labour's Lewis Macdonald, who is deputy convener of the Europe committee, said people have "had enough of referendums".

He said: "There are no certainties in any of this, but I think we're getting pretty close to certainty when I say that no, I don't think there will be an independence referendum before the start of 2019, nor do I think British withdrawal from Europe will be complete by then either.

"In terms of the independence referendum, the one thing that Nicola Sturgeon has been consistent about is that she has no intention of calling an independence referendum until she thinks she can win. And there's no evidence at all that that position has changed."

Tory MSP Jackson Carlaw agreed that the Brexit talks would take some time, noting that there were a number of major elections in key EU member states in coming years.

He added: "For all the rhetoric that goes about, I don't expect there to be another independence referendum any time soon, if at all, frankly."

However, Green MSP Ross Greer said the Brexit talks could yet lead to a second independence poll if the UK government opts for a "hard" deal, such as one involving a break from the single market.

He said: "I think there probably will be a second independence referendum, particularly if the UK is heading towards a hard Brexit. It's debatable whether we are, we simply don't know that yet. The hints I would say are that we are.

"It's obviously a very distinct possibility, and I would say that in that set of circumstances the situation here in Scotland does change utterly."

He added: "I do think it is likely that there will be a second referendum - the challenge is timing. There's a very compelling case that you have it as soon as possible in the Article 50 process to give you time for what are two separate but interrelated sets of negotiations with Europe, one for Scotland becoming independent in Europe and one for the UK leaving.

"But there's the obvious political argument that you would want to wait and build support for independence before calling a referendum. I don't envy Nicola Sturgeon's position in making that choice."

Lib Dem Tavish Scott said he thought there was a better case for a second EU referendum than one on Scottish independence, arguing that people "did not know what they were voting for" in the Brexit poll.

He also said he did not think the UK would be out of the EU by 2019.

He said: "I think Mike Russell has been appointed [as Scotland's Brexit minister] not just for this parliament but for the next one as well. The idea that this is all going to happen quickly is not in the real world of EU politics, never mind UK politics."