Has Scotland's place in the UK changed since the 'No' vote?

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Saltire flying over WestminsterImage source, Getty Images

When Scotland made its choice one year ago, the result was clear - voters rejected independence by 55% to 45% on a massive turnout.

Yet on the first anniversary of this historic referendum it is also clear that Scotland's relationship with the UK is not settled.

Those who campaigned for a "Yes" vote have drawn enormous strength from their defeat.

The SNP has more members, more voters and more MPs than ever.

It all but wiped out Scottish Labour in this May's general election.

Labour, once the pre-eminent force in Scottish politics, lost 40 of its 41 seats to the SNP and big names like the shadow foreign secretary, Douglas Alexander.

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Breakdown of MPs in Scotland 1955-2015

Breakdown of MPs 1955-2015

Who lost their seats in May 2015?

Danny Alexander, Douglas Alexander, Charles Kennedy, Jim Murphy, Jo Swinson all lost their seats
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The SNP is now the third largest party at Westminster, with opposition debating time and weekly questions to the prime minister.

For the first time, they have also secured a seat on the intelligence and security committee which scrutinises the work of MI5 and MI6.

They are playing their part in the established system they seek to overhaul.

Above all, the SNP continues to support Scottish independence.

Oil prices

Although they said the 2014 referendum was a "once in a generation" event, they have not ruled out a much earlier re-match.

Expect the SNP leader and first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, to reserve the right to call a second referendum in her 2016 Holyrood manifesto.

Do not expect her to set a date because she only wants to have another vote on independence if the "Yes" side is certain to win.

Recent opinion polls suggest support for independence may have risen since the referendum.

But the oil price collapse has not made it any easier for the SNP and others to advance an economic case for Scotland to leave the union.

The vow, as seen in the Daily Record newspaperImage source, PA
Image caption,

The so-called "vow" was made by the three main Union party leaders ahead of the Scottish independence referendum

The prime minister, David Cameron, hopes further devolution of power from Westminster to Holyrood will satisfy Scottish demand for more autonomy.

The Conservative government is legislating to give Holyrood the extra tax and welfare powers agreed by the Smith commission.

There's argument over whether or not it will fully deliver the so-called "Vow" made by pro-Union parties in the referendum campaign.

Mr Cameron is also pursuing a parallel plan to give English MPs more say over issues decided at Westminster that only affect England.

English votes for English laws would also reduce the voting rights of Scottish MPs.

For that reason, the former prime minister, Gordon Brown, is worried that this could ultimately drive Scotland and England further apart.

Prime Minister David Cameron and First Nicola SturgeonImage source, Reuters
Image caption,

Prime Minister David Cameron and First Nicola Sturgeon met just days after the SNP won 56 of Scotland's 59 Westminster seats

The election of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader could have an impact on the UK's constitutional future too.

The SNP reckons that unless he can establish himself as a prime minister in waiting, support for independence, as a way to end Conservative government, will grow.

The Tories remain relatively unpopular in Scotland.

A poll averaging five recent Scottish opinion polls suggests the Conservatives are on about 14% in constituency voting intentions for the Holyrood elections, which will be held in May next year.

Labour's a bit higher on 22% but way behind the SNP on 54%. The gap between these top two parties is a bit narrower for the regional list vote.

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Table of polls
  • Average percentage of five polls - conducted by TNS BMRB, Ipsos MORI, Panelbase, Survation and YouGov - between 12 August and 10 September, 2015.

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Some Labour supporters think Mr Corbyn will help the Scottish party close that gap by neutralising criticism that Labour's offer has become "Tory-lite".

Others think a more left-leaning Labour Party will not have broad enough appeal to challenge the SNP, which draws support from across the political spectrum.

At this stage, Ms Sturgeon's party looks set to win an even bigger Holyrood majority than they did last time.

Labour, under Mr Corbyn and their new Scottish leader, Kezia Dugdale, have less than eight months to change that.