Review hails success but big problems remain

Mark Mardell|13:54 UK time, Thursday, 16 December 2010

The Afghan review is admirably clear in focusing on why America and its allies are in Afghanistan: "The core goal of the US strategy in the Afghanistan and Pakistan theatre remains to disrupt, dismantle, and eventually defeat al-Qaeda in the region and to prevent its return to either country."

The report lists a series of successes, but as always, the problems are more interesting.

There needs to be more cooperation on getting rid of safe havens for the enemy in Pakistan. This is seen as absolutely vital
The Kabul government has to show it can govern the whole country, not just the area around the capital
There must be more emphasis on Afghan led forces
There needs to be a political solution.

The question is, will any progress be made in any of these areas next year, the year after, or the year after that? If not, we will have arrived at the 2014 date for the handover of control to Afghan forces without solving the core problem.

It is not impossible, but it is very hard to see Pakistan cooperating in the sort of crack-down that President Barack Obama believes is critical to real success. If that doesn't happen, another full-blown strategy review may be needed.

Or the US could just declare victory and go home.