Crystal-ball gazing
My New Year predictions have been almost entirely wrong for as long as I can remember. Two years ago, I suggested on the BBC Correspondents' Lookahead that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the blogger and Iranian leader, would kiss the cheek of George W Bush on the tarmac at Tehran airport; a year ago, I said Dick Cheney would resign and be replaced by John McCain.
But, like a gambler, I feel the need to press on in the hope of hitting the jackpot.
This year in the lookahead programme, I predicted that John McCain would be elected president in 2008 and that the American brand would be back in vogue, or at least would no longer be so widely regarded as poisonous. The first prediction could, of course, be dead by the end of the first month of 2008 - which would be a record even by my dismal standards - but the second will take all year and maybe leach into 2009 as well.
I predict an improvement in America's worldwide reputation with only moderate confidence (to borrow from the argot of the National Intelligence Estimates) but, if it is to happen at all, I believe it should begin in Iowa this week, where groups of essentially decent, mild, kindly people will begin the process of choosing the 2008 winner.
Iowa is flawed, of course. The candidates are a rum bunch on both sides and the voters (too white, too religious, too old, too extreme, you take your pick) are similarly open to attack, but it is nonetheless worth pausing, I reckon, before it all kicks off, to reflect that in a nation of 300 million people, bristling with military power and at war around the world, managing an orderly transition of power is a majestic enterprise, worthy of ongoing wonderment.
The Archbishop of Canterbury, Dr Rowan Williams, suggested recently that Western society was itself flawed. "There is something about Western modernity which really does eat away at the soul," he said. Those who agree with him will be tut-tutting as the American election process gets going in all its meretricious glory but, along with the self-doubt, a little bit of self-confidence might be no bad thing among Western democrats in 2008.
However much the souls of Iowans are eaten away (according to the archbishop's view), I would prefer to be ruled by them than any other group on earth...
The row in full swing here over whether 
I have 
Some kind correspondents have pointed out that this rather damaged the sense of the piece, at least for US readers!
Years ago, chatting to the congressman (who is a charming and warm man, one-to-one), he told me he would probably stand in 2008 but that, as he put it, "The job will go to someone with better hair!" 
And yet the entire political nation and half the political world is arriving or about to arrive - my flight alone contained a man from the 
What does one do on these occasions?
At a previous Christmas party, Tim was introduced to Mr Bush as "Tim Reid from the Times". Unfortunately, the president had recently been interviewed by one of Tim's colleagues, not by Tim, but hearing the words "The Times" Mr Bush said, not unreasonably, "Hey Tim - didn't we meet just a few days ago?"
You would be wrong though - just as important as the efforts of 
In the smart salons of Washington DC, all the brightest chatter is about the near certainty that the mayor of New York, Michael Bloomberg, will enter the race if the two existing New Yorkers are knocked out. It takes a trip to Kansas to focus on grittier realities. 
We are all homing in - quite rightly - on what Mitt Romney said 
Can you legitimately defend yourself against something that does not exist and might never exist? But at the same time, if anyone doubted Iran's potential to be a threat - well, the intelligence agencies seem almost certain that there was a nuclear weapons programme in Iran until 2003. The document also makes plain that although that weapons effort has probably not been restarted, it could be one day. The option, according to the report, is being kept open. 
Hello, I'm 
