Archives for October 2009

There are 73,683 registered voters in the Gosport parliamentary constituency. And now it seems the conservatives will be consulting all 73,683 people by post to decide who should be their next candidate.

That person is of course replacing Sir Peter Viggers, who was forced to stand down over the duck island expenses scandal. It's not entirely a safe seat, but one that will get a lot of interest.

It will be only the second time that a party has given every voter a chance to vote by post. The Conservatives felt the first postal ballot at Totnes in Devon helped draw a line under the expenses scandal there, giving voters the sense of a fresh start.

It will cost tens of thousands though, Gosport is a bigger seat than Totnes. The cost is being met by the Tory party centrally, though the shortlist of four will be decided by the local association.

We'll know next Tuesday the six names that they'll pick from. Will Stanley Johnson be there? I'm told that there have been hundreds of applications.

• Bookmark with:
• del.icio.us |
• Digg |
• Newsvine |
• NowPublic |
• Reddit
• - What's this?

My son Ben was eighteen this week. A cause for great celebration amongst his family and friends. One of the cards had a pint of beer and a ballot box on the front with the caption "Old enough to drink, Old enough to vote" and the message inside... "I vote we get drunk!"

But I'm not about to start banging on about teenage excess (in his case the only excess I'm really worried about is the excess on my car insurance!) there was another card that he was sent on his eighteenth birthday that was more of a revelation.

With a neatly printed address and a second class stamp, my eighteen year-old son received a card from our local MP, Dr Julian Lewis.

Now I know Julian, I've interviewed him many times, but Ben has never met him. I was pretty certain this must be something Dr Lewis was doing for every eighteen year-old. But I wondered, was it just in this election year?

It turns out that it's something he's been doing for at least ten years, and some other MPs do the same.

So my next thought was, I wonder if he claims it on expenses?

And the answer is, no.

Dr Lewis pays for the cards out of his own pocket, a way of introducing himself to my son, and about seventy other teenagers every month. He used to address all the cards himself too, it seems but that became a bit of a chore. They get the names from the electoral roll, and the local Conservative Association pays the postage.

I was feeling a bit churlish about asking, now. And the cards apparently generate quite a bit of extra casework once people have been introduced to their local MP. But in these recession hit times is it really a good use of an MPs time and money?

Well, it's a nicely produced, cheery card. And Julian Lewis has signed it personally. He must judge the benefit.

• Bookmark with:
• del.icio.us |
• Digg |
• Newsvine |
• NowPublic |
• Reddit
• - What's this?

Exactly how the recession is affecting us all is difficult to tell.

We know that many people have lost their jobs, but how many are worried they might be made redundant?

The guy who repairs my car told me things have never been better, but our local showroom has closed its doors. Some have benefitted from lower interest rates. But if you're a pensioner it's been a real blow.
.

So South Today is compiling a "mood map" of the South of England
If you click on this link you can see the results.

• Bookmark with:
• del.icio.us |
• Digg |
• Newsvine |
• NowPublic |
• Reddit
• - What's this?

The headlines are unequivocal:"Record numbers of school kids bunking off""Truancy stats soar""Truancy levels on the rise"

A press release from Southampton Liberal Democrats is just as specific: "These figures are disgraceful, with truancy in the city now at a record high. Despite promising to get a grip on this problem, truancy levels have rocketed under Labour."

But when I try to work out a wider picture things appear less black and white.

Over the last three years across all local authorities in South East England the proportion of lessons missed has fallen.

On the key government target - the percentage of persistent truants - there's been a steady reduction in the South East each year.

If you can bear it, have a glance at the raw data. It's for state secondary schools, Autumn and Spring terms.

This is the stuff we try to turn into a headline - it's sometimes more like reading tea-leaves:

So who's lying? Who's manipulating the statistics?

There is, I'm afraid, no simple answer, as you can work out for yourself from the table below, where I've listed just some of the local authority data for 2009 and 1997.

One important complicating factor is the crack-down on parents taking children out of school for cheaper holidays. What used to count as an authorised absence is now an unauthorised one.

This explains how some authorities - Dorset, Hampshire, West Sussex - can say they've cut the percentage of lessons skipped over the 12 years even though unauthorised absences are up.

But within the overall improvement there are some terrible hotspots - Southampton is one - with an overall increase in truancy and a shocking 11.9 percent - more than one in ten schoolchildren - now classified as persistent truants according to the national measure.

Even that could be tarring all schools with the same brush - some must be better than others within the authority - and presumably some even worse.

I rather liked this headline from our commercial radio rival: "Truancy figures mixed in Surrey and Hants" but it doesn't really inform, or entertain...

Now I've always tried to pay attention in Maths classes, but I need help!

Please tell me below what you make of these stats.. because I really would like to make sense of it.

• Bookmark with:
• del.icio.us |
• Digg |
• Newsvine |
• NowPublic |
• Reddit
• - What's this?

Perhaps it was our fault for plonking the South of England section of this week's Politics Show in the middle of Woking's shopping centre.

First the skateboarders arrived. Not tiny terrors but hulking teenagers on long boards with masks and a large plastic hammer which they banged on the head of one of our crew as we rehearsed before they zoomed off.

Then the man with the barrel organ started up. Our floor manager Abbie Collins certainly earned her money. After politely persuading barrel organ man to move where he wouldn't deafen us she then had to reason with a local connoisseur of the grape who decided our chairs were much the best way to doze off the morning.

Then we noticed that the huge sign for the Peacocks was clearly visible over the shoulder of our guests.. with the "Pea" bit covered by trees.. and only the last five letters visible...

When the skate boarders returned with an air horn we ploughed on regardless. The shopping centre security guards by now were covering every exit.

We do like being out of the studio, but some say we're gluttons for punishment. This Sunday it's a trip to a Southampton church - complete with Gospel choir!

I'll report back on any off-air excitement you might miss sat in the comfort of your living room.

• Bookmark with:
• del.icio.us |
• Digg |
• Newsvine |
• NowPublic |
• Reddit
• - What's this?

Conservatives are getting ready to select the replacement for Bracknell MP Andrew MacKay who was forced out through the expenses scandal. Have a look at the video for the definition of "not getting it" during the expenses scandal.

Reading through the short list though, you've got to wonder whether the Berkshire Conservatives have still missed the public mood.

Berkshire blogger Richard Willis had an early post on the front runners, and now we have the full list.

Where are the local heroes? Were they really crowded out by the A listers?

Amidst the usual toe-curling candidate pen portraits the four men and three women struggle to establish a connection with the people who are coming to the public meeting at the Blue Mountain Golf Course.

Front runner Rory Stewart offers the less than convincing gem: "his father worked for Racal which was then based in Bracknell."

Ryan Robson tries "He is married to Sarah, a Windsor girl "

GP Philip Lee is perhaps most convincing - he has actually worked in the constituency in the past, and now "undertakes sessions for the East Berkshire 'Out of Hours' service which covers the east of the Bracknell Constituency."

Does it matter that there's no-one on the Bracknell list who is from Bracknell?

Let me offer one thought. At the now infamous public meeting back in May I got the strong sense that the people actually in the room were almost more angry with Andrew MacKay for not having a house in the constituency, than claiming expenses for the other two houses.

His suggestion that he'd never claimed to live in the constituency, but had refused to give his address because of security considerations, was roundly ridiculed.

Without a local candidate on the short-list it's difficult to see how local people are being given real choice.

Any replacement will be accused of carpet-bagging. At least if they'd been chosen over a Bracknell councillor they could have been seen to win fair and square.

• Bookmark with:
• del.icio.us |
• Digg |
• Newsvine |
• NowPublic |
• Reddit
• - What's this?

A rare privilege today - a chance to chat with Mayor of London Boris Johnson and his dad Stanley together.

Stanley reminds me that he was once MEP for Hampshire, and he's still keen to get back into political action.

Boris is a little less sure about this, but the discussion turns to the vacancy at the Gosport constituency of Duck Island MP SIr Peter Viggers.

It's not a bad Tory seat. Majority of about 5,000, over a Labour challenge, and Stanley also recalls that he spent some time there when he was in the services.

And there's more than just the Duck Island notoriety that might suit Johnson senior.

I tell him about the good humoured Lib Dem "Taxi for Viggers" campaign, and we recall the row that ensued when Chairman Alan Scard told a TV reporter he'd be keen on a female candidate, if she was good looking.

Duck jokes abound.

"You might just fit the bill."

But would Conservative HQ tolerate another Johnson in the house?

Would Boris be happy to see his dad on the backbenches, possibly in government, while he takes the flak in London?

Interesting possibility, though, eh?

• Bookmark with:
• del.icio.us |
• Digg |
• Newsvine |
• NowPublic |
• Reddit
• - What's this?

David Cameron talked to me about the chances of a referendum over the Lisbon Treaty, the funding formula for South of England Councils and whether a Prime Minister could cycle to work.

• Bookmark with:
• del.icio.us |
• Digg |
• Newsvine |
• NowPublic |
• Reddit
• - What's this?

It was a tremendous experience to present the Politics Show from the study of one of the Conservative Party's most flamboyant leaders, at Hughenden Manor in Buckinghamshire.

Disraeli would put modern spin-doctors to shame.

And the problems he wrestled with - Europe or Empire, the Irish question, Afghanistan - are strangely familiar.

His workload would be rather less familiar to modern politicians. He found the time to write novels, and spend the long summer recess wandering in the lovely woodland around his country home.

I was especially struck with the way that his red dispatch box would have taken just a select few of those beautifully written official documents on display in the museum.

The same weighty responsibility, but much more time to think.

• Bookmark with:
• del.icio.us |
• Digg |
• Newsvine |
• NowPublic |
• Reddit
• - What's this?

The Prime Minister spoke to me about whether he made a mistake not calling the election in Bournemouth two years ago, and the plans he had announced for a National Care Service to provide elderly care at home.

• Bookmark with:
• del.icio.us |
• Digg |
• Newsvine |
• NowPublic |
• Reddit
• - What's this?