Friday the 13th - how unlucky is it really?

Did the thought of dawn breaking over Friday 13th’s horizon fill you with an unholy dread this morning?

Do you get heart palpitations just thinking about the numbers 1 and 3 in the same room? If that sounds familiar, you’re not the only one; the fear of Friday 13th is so real it has not one, but two names (although good luck pronouncing either).

Paraskevidekatriaphobia is from the Greek words paraskevi (meaning 'Friday'), and dekatreis (meaning 'thirteen'), while simply fearing the number 13 itself is called triskaidekaphobia. Both are defined as a morbid, irrational fear.

When the big day comes, sufferers are so consumed by fear that they often refuse to leave the house, make any important decisions, plan or attend any events and generally go out of their way to avoid the impending disaster they so earnestly believe is coming.

So the fear is real… but where does it come from?

Historically, the origins of Friday 13th superstitions are a little muddled, with some traced all the way back to the Bible. Jesus’s crucifixion is believed to have taken place on the dreaded date, the day after the last supper (featuring 13 participants). Other ancient events attributed to the date are plentiful, including Eve’s biting of the fated apple, the beginning of the great flood and the execution of the Knights Templar.

However, this is widely disputed, with many believing that the origins of Friday 13th superstitions date back no further than the twentieth century. Steve Roud, author of The Penguin Guide to the Superstitions of Britain and Ireland, argues that despite the wealth of writers and playwrights around for centuries, no-one mentioned anything about such a phobia before then. It’s only in more recent years that concrete references have started appearing, with Hollywood’s contribution of ‘Friday the 13th’ in 1980 arguably the one that cemented the unlucky date into social consciousness for good. Because who could forget this face?

The likely truth though, as Professor Chris French, Professor of Psychology at Goldsmiths, University of London, tells me, is that no-one really knows for sure. The number 13 has always been an irregular, irksome number (I mean, it’s no number 12, right?), and somewhere down the line it got mixed up with a Friday, although it’s impossible to pinpoint exactly how and when.

Ancient history aside, is there anything to actually be afraid of?

There have been plenty of studies carried out to explore the negative effect of Friday 13th on our behaviour. Prominent examples include a 2002 Finnish study, external, which assessed that the adjusted risk ratio for women dying in a car accident was 1.63 on Friday 13th, while a 1993 British Medical Journal (BMJ), external study appeared to agree, stating that there may be a 52% increase in traffic accidents on that day, with the authors of the study actually recommending staying at home.

But stay with me, phobic friends - all is not as it appears. Firstly, the sample sizes of such studies are incredibly small and therefore potentially unreliable. Secondly, despite being the foremost evidence that many so called ‘believers’ cite, the BMJ study, whilst quoting authentic data, was not meant to have its conclusions taken seriously. "It's quite amusing and written with tongue firmly in cheek," said Robert Luben, a researcher at the school of clinical medicine at the University of Cambridge and one of the study's authors.

Lastly, there are plenty of studies out there with totally conflicting data. As just one example, the Dutch Centre for Insurance Statistics (CVS), external established in 2008 that Friday 13th was actually safer than the average Friday, potentially due to people taking greater care.

In fact, Professor French insists that in general, empirical studies don’t suggest Friday 13th is unlucky in any way. Any evidence to the contrary is likely to be caused by the superstition itself, with the unusual stress and anxiety causing accidents, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. This ultimately was the conclusion of the 2002 Dutch study; that any increased danger for women was down to their induced anxiety on the day.

Equally, while people have plenty of anecdotal evidence about all of the bad stuff that’s gone down on Friday 13th, chances are they’re just on the look out, often retrofitting incidents to the date.

So there you have it. Quantifiable evidence that you have nothing to fear this Friday. So throw away the tin hats, get your head out from under the duvet and go out and embrace the day. When all’s said and done, at least it’s still Friday.